Malacka11

Feeling pretty good about at least getting my inch

I thought it was upgraded because they expect potentially less large breaks at least for the city proper, whereas this start is progressing about as expected no? Up by Milwaukee looks good, I understand that all to at least drift through the city in the next few hours

The sky is in full Threads mode today with bright sun fighting through otherwise completely uniform overcast skies. Dust has already been falling for hours. It kind of feels reminiscent of the eclipse the other year

I guess that's exactly what I do, just try and analyze differences run to run. Where I guess I break down is understanding why models show what they do and recognizing, for example, synoptic setups conducive to constructive phasing in a general sense. In this case, I can look at 500mb geo height maps all day and see where different pieces of energy are coming from. Looks like shit from the Pacific (?) and some crap riding down the rockies (?) could conceptually come together, but the setup is otherwise seemingly too progressive (?) Now, there's still a moderate HP center out in front of this, but obviously its impact is much less than in our last system where iirc heights kept building slightly over canada with every run instead of trending the opposite way (?) Obviously this is a major oversimplification but that's the point I suppose - I wish I knew how Again, I am not trying to equate this system with the last or say I have any hopes for it. It's just the next upcoming case study.

It's a struggle sometimes to ask questions genuinely stemming from curiosity for fear of seeming like a wishcaster. It's tough because (understandably) nobody posts a damn fucking thing until the elephant is basically addressing itself. Again, competely understandable, but this is the mfing Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion™ thread so let's chat: What's up with about 150ish hours from now? What dictates the degree of phasing between the various pieces that could be involved? Even if it phases into a 1-3 incher, what might control that? I truly want to stress that I'm just looking to understand large-scale, basic stuff here and not fishing for hope -- nor doomer shit. Even if you aren't pro, what do you think? If you are absolutely not paying attention because it's DOA, then why?

The last one stung a bit because we at least marginally had skin in the game, but with that not being an issue this time around, I'll freely say I'm hoping EC weenies manage to reel their upcoming shot in. Ik they're dooming pretty hard in there but that would be a truly amazing snowpack for someone if it did manage to happen, and my soul hurts on their behalf just thinking about missing out (even understanding that it's not exactly a slam dunk setup)

If I can walk away with an inch to keep appearances up I'll be happy. Anything above that is bonus money Hope it'll work out for someone. Seems like quite the long duration event for this side of the lake no?

The second things like sun angle start becoming an issue again all I can think about is the lake getting warm as fast as possible. I think last year was pretty good in that respect since spring was pretty solid iirc. Since we're looking at cold cold for at least the next two weeks, this may be my first year of actively pulling for a torch in about three weeks' time.

Ik it's been a pretty standout year for Chicago lake effect events but I'm pretty happy with the bonuses I've received here in westmont so far. I think snow cover has been far more consistent than back home in Aurora and I'm pleasantly surprised. It's definitely kept me from cad posting

Back to regularly scheduled low stakes programming

At least the pavement gets covered quick even if no grass tips might be a big ask

If you couldn't see the flakes you literally can't tell yet but it's already blowing on the roads with every last breeze particle simulation style. Even with shit rates and zero expectations it's comforting to know we're at least not losing a single flake to melt

Crack rock fairy shit commencing. Quite honestly in my mind I was worried we'd be shut out entirely if we didn't lock it in for real so it's nice to see even if it never ends up accumulating

We fr live in a society

I instinctively 100d you and I still agree but selfishly there's only about a month of Malacka Winter™ left and about half of that is apparently fixing to be CAD unironically now... Not complaining but it do be like that