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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, this made me decide to go look at the UKMET.....and......: not an awful look at all
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    For us strat junkies, despite the wxtwitterverse occasionally seeing something to get excited about, I'm not seeing much yet, but there are some perturbations (as they say in the old country) toward 50mb. But up at the top, the SPV looks pretty stout (gif shows heights at 50 mb, but ends on heights at 10 mb): Lawrence's 3D vortex reflects that:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Out in fantasy land the Euro looked interesting days 8 - 10: Not a lot of cold air around, so we would probably be waiting on a the N. stream to catch up to the southern one, even though the s. stream energy takes a sweet track. 0z EPS 24 hour snow plots look like scattershot, so not much agreement there for anything (though there is a little support for less than an inch around Memphis with the storm later this week). Long range EPS still liking the time near mid month for an even colder pattern, after a brief warm up: Like Cravers has said, this looks very very similar to what models showed at range, this time of the year, only to turn into a trough in the SW that only slowly and inconsistently pushes east. GEPS looks similar for a while, but in a change from some previous runs, it gets rid of EPO ridge over AK and plops a trough: That would produce the old Pac Puke GEFS looks like a split between the two, but leaning a little towards the GEPS: In terms of MJO/ tropical convection, not much to add to what Jeff said yesterday. So it seems a little weird that the GEFS and GEPS seem to have bit on a look that seems more MC convection based. The EPS does see a little more suppression/ confusion for how the MJO will evolve and Ventrice's plots seem to favor more western Pac convection towards week 3 (EPS, GEFS, and Ventrice's OLR plots, in that order): Actual convection doesn't really seem to reflect a big MC MJO event to me, but admittedly I have no clue what the MJO looks like on satellite, other than a mass of convection. Sure there is some convection there, but I have seen much worse. I've been watching it for a while this year and it just seems anemic each time it gets to the MC so far. Hopefully I haven't jinxed it now, lol. And there's convection out near the dateline,. Maybe the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is messing with the ensembles depictions of how tropical convection will evolve to impact the N Hemisphere pattern? Apologies if I have misrepresented anything others have said. 100% not my goal.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    2.5 - 3 for me depending on where I measured on my deck! Beautiful as day dawns. The ground temps must have been pretty warm even here. Elevated surfaces did great, the ground is still kinda splotchy in places that see a lot of sun.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Almost up to 2.5 now and pouring. I do like the RGEM. It seems like it sees some features better than the NAMs at range. But have to credit Carver's for teaching me to watch it.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's an interesting feature on radar and WV imagery that may give one more umph to everything tonight: radar: Water Vapor: WPC mesoscale analysis shows some 850 frontogenesis associated with it: I have no clue what that is, but it does seem to be heading our way. Maybe fortune favors the greedy tonight?
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    1.5 inches here, 2 looking possible, hopefully a little more!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm trying to catch up @Shocker0
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hope so too. I bet I can get an inch or two if we do. Landscape really starting to get pretty!
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Starting to pour up here in MoCo now. Deck dusting imminent.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Cookeville looks nice right now: https://putnamcountytn.gov/cookeville-live-square
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    @John1122 This is what it has been like most of the time, with like 1 in 100,000 flakes much bigger:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kinda. Every once in a while I will see some big flakes mixed in, then I'm back to almost all small flakes.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ground is starting to get a slushy look here. Another hour or so of this and I think I will have a dusting. And I mean that in the most positive possible way, lol.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally got a steady light snow. 34.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still have a mix here at 1300 feet.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    The more I look at the HRRR above, the more I think the trajectory of the Upper low has something to do with enhancing the Lake Michigan band. Hopefully that hammers someone. Maybe it backs the flow enough in the mid levels to get some extra lift??
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm dry slotted for now and in the mid 30s. @BhamParker Latest HRRR shows the Lake Michigan band aimed right at Sevier county between 8 and 10 PM. It also is seeing valley areas having a tough time over coming temps as the upper low's lift swings up the eastern valley. We'll see.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good to see you @BlunderStorm !!!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Starting to change over here now. I'm almost exactly at 1300 feet.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I can see some wet snow in the Cookeville web cams.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    CC radar shows some transition lowering into the valley:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like I'm just barely gonna miss the band lifting across the N. plateau. Still rain here and 40. Wind is picking up quite a bit though. Sorry @PowellVolz missed your mention last night. There is a way to tell the elevation based on correlation coefficient radar, but I don't know. I need to figure it out though, I was asking myself the same question, lol. As y'all were talking about above overnight, will be interesting to see what happens with the upper low as it drops in to the west and creates some lift directly up the eastern valley, if the NAM, RAP, and HRRR are right. Moisture from the lakes and actual wrap around moisture is lifted at a really nice trajectory for place up the valley from Knoxville. It's the only way y'all can get orographic lift. So many mesoscale and topographic things could impact it though. John and I could get downsloped (me from Crab Orchard mts and him from Cross mountain), but that also has to work against the upper low's lift and lift up onto the plateau. I'm looking forward to watching it on radar this PM and evening to see if it develops and what it does. The IR NAM gif below shows the lift. It is the moisture @TellicoWx mentions above
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Snow level crawling down as the correlation coefficient line gets closer to the OHX radar site good luck blue moon !
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just peeked at the SREFs for Crossville and @Blue Moon you weren’t kidding about the mean jump lol! Like you said prolly not a good idea to bite, but fun to think about the possibilities.
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