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Save the itchy algae!

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Everything posted by Save the itchy algae!

  1. Save the itchy algae!
    Don’t tempt me with a good time sir. .
  2. Save the itchy algae!
    I know the weekend system rightfully has our attention but it does look like the feb6-8 time frame is holding legitimate potential as well.
  3. Save the itchy algae!
    This is quite the non-Tennessee valley storm.
  4. Save the itchy algae!
    You’re not in Knoxville I presume then?
  5. Save the itchy algae!
    The snow/ice that had accumulated earlier is almost gone under the rain.
  6. Save the itchy algae!
    Back to a plain rain after about an hour of freezing rain. This is probably the turn here towards it being a rain event the rest of the way.
  7. Save the itchy algae!
    It’s going to be much sooner than that, it’s 32 here imby Farragut.
  8. Save the itchy algae!
    Just as I say that we are getting a burst of sleet again. Probably rate driven.
  9. Save the itchy algae!
    Changed over to plain rain here in Farragut. Pretty much right on time, hope everyone enjoys their front end fun!
  10. Save the itchy algae!
    The gfs is close to cooking up something good for next week.
  11. Save the itchy algae!
    From what I can tell, it might be a little slower but it seems the valley is mainly where it’s trending more south. The 546 line has been pretty consistent east of the apps and west of the valley, just seems to be our area with any real changing trends from a thermal perspective.
  12. Save the itchy algae!
    The ideal environment for freezing rain accretion is just below freezing temperatures at the surface and a mist or very light rain falling into a gentle steady breeze to aid droplet particulation. I’m not sure if that’s an actual word the point being the bigger the droplet the less likely it will stick. Too much breeze and the water wont stick and has drying function, as does too low of a temperature to the moisture content. The fly in the ointment is already fallen sleet/snow at lower temperatures as it can supercool rain falling in lower temps and immediately form concrete. But heavier rain can and will overcome that, especially over a long duration.
  13. Save the itchy algae!
    Even up north where ground temps aren’t an issue it will rain in the low 20’s if the rates are moderate. Speaking from experience after living in the Great Plains. It’ll be a black ice machine after the storm is over but ice accretion is threading a needle.
  14. Save the itchy algae!
    Rain with freezing temperatures is often not freezing rain. It has to be very light rainfall to accrete. The Central Valley is not particularly prone to freezing rain. What you’re seeing as freezing rain on models is likely rain. There can and maybe will be some glazing but not nearly to the potential shown on some models.
  15. Save the itchy algae!
    Latest GFS is mostly sleet. Could be room for a surprise.
  16. Save the itchy algae!
    I’m tracking with this other than you saying the predominant ptype being freezing rain. Think the models are over selling the freezing rain aspect due to modeled lower surface temps but the other ingredients aren’t really there for a ton of icing other than in transition. We’ll see.. especially if/when CAD sets in as that could stir things up.
  17. Save the itchy algae!
    Well my 24 hour self ban didn’t work. At this point may as well make the somewhat happy reminder at this point that even with colder surface temps freezing rain won’t accumulate if it’s coming down in moderate rates. So the euro might be picking up on this with its rain solution, even if it’s erroneous on the actual temp profile. I guess it depends on how much sleet there is for the rain to stick to at this point in the CV. This one hurts guys, but we need the rain..
  18. Save the itchy algae!
    I’m afraid I may have jinxed things earlier when I was talking about how it’ll be a rain/snow/both/none situation for the Central Valley via climatology. Now the heat miser is trying to show up. I will self ban for 24 hours in the hopes to get things back on track for [emoji3587][emoji3587][emoji3587]
  19. Save the itchy algae!
    No doubt the plateau would be problematic. I’ll look into the ‘14/15 time frame I just don’t recall anything significant offhand. I’m also in Farragut which is the warmest/driest spot in the Central Valley so it could’ve just skirted us.
  20. Save the itchy algae!
    ^ this is a long winded way of me saying I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised with a snow/rain/snow solution ultimately, regardless of what modeling shows.
  21. Save the itchy algae!
    In my short experience in the Central Valley (11 years living here) I don’t really see it as a place prone to ice storms. Southern valley I can understand as it more closely resembles topography I’m familiar with getting ice previously (Lee side apps), as well a thin stretch of the western escarpment of the the northern valley apps, but I tend to think it would take a rather large outlier to bring anything other than snow or rain here in significant amounts. The warm noses that have come into effect here tend to bring rain. I’ve seen some sleet/ice here of course but only transitory. This could be that type of outlier, but my gut tells me the CV will be mostly snow, rain, nothing, or a combo of those three. On a somewhat separate note somebody mentioned thunder ice earlier and I wanted to share my experience with that.. thunder sleet is quite common, particularly in more arid climates like the western plains but thunder ice (freezing rain) is pretty much impossible. Icing requires generally light precipitation over a period of time without much drainage, even moderate rain will not accrete as ice usually, even at temperatures in the low-mid 20’s at the surface. Now once it stops raining whatever is left on surfaces will freeze, but that’s not the same thing. Just my 0.02, would like to learn more about previous icing events. The records show that there may have been some in the early 00’s but there’s not much significant data on those. Looks like the last major one was ‘94.
  22. Save the itchy algae!
    A little off topic here, but I just went over to the mid Atlantic board to see where their heads were at on the storm and let me just say that they were giving nazi-esque vibes with their over moderation. I appreciate this board with 100% sincerity.
  23. Save the itchy algae!
    Did AI get you? Sorry man, this storms for you though!
  24. Save the itchy algae!
    Is there a thread from the archives we can pull up on that one and revisit? .
  25. Save the itchy algae!
    If it’s stopped it’s northward jog already then we’re in business. 1.5 more days until it’s largely locked in. .
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