purduewx80

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What is that feature by the Carolinas? Looks like a weak tropical storm!

a vertically stacked low that took advantage of the gulf stream overnight; convection is well-removed from the center now and it will remain that way w/ all the dry air around.

26 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Eps?

stormy and generally has us on the cold side from next weekend on.

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Did WSI /Ventrice put out a winter outlook 

yes and it has largely been spot on.

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big MJO improvements today on the models. All the models now get to phase 8 by mid-February. Hopefully, we see the GEFS and CMC join the EPS with the more -EPO mid-February.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

The 00Z Canadian ensemble mean and 06Z GEFS made a nice improvement towards what the EPS is showing for the EPO. PNA sucks but it's nice to see the cutoff N/E of Hawaii and the lower heights S of Greenland/E of the Canadian Maritimes.

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GFS

1st storm misses the major cities to the north and then the 2nd storm hits the Mid Atlantic. Can't make this stuff up

toss the 2m temps w/ that thu-fri system. would be ice just outside the city up into new england for a good part of it.

in typical new york fashion, there is garbage flying everywhere. impressive gusts near 50 mph here in bed-stuy.

11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

This is basically the same physics as thunderstorms, just with bitterly cold Temperatures. The baroclynic gradient setting up is rather intense, yet initial temperatures are cold enough for this to be snow? Correct?

yep, just a rare winter-time version. this line is strongly forced by the arrival of the bitter cold air mass. see 925mb temperature advection below:

the sfc-3km lapse rates posted on the previous page would be displaced much higher in the atmosphere during a summer-time event, although not to the magnitude observed today. a 140KT 500mb jet in spring/summer would also be outrageous. many of the large-scale tornado outbreaks are associated with 100KT up there.

Just now, tomcatct said:

Is there a possibility in any of these snow squalls to get any Thunder that you would normally see in the summertime when a cold front comes through and get the thunderstorms?

Yes, but the best chances will be across LI over to southern New England.

PHL just gusted to 52 MPH, with vis as low as 1200'. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

and it's coming through in the middle of the day- so it should be VERY photogenic!

yep, looks relatively cloud-free ahead of and behind it.

All the 12z hi-res guidance has a long squall line tomorrow; will be interesting to see whether a meso-low develops nearby as some hi-res and even globals show. The upper jet structure and PVA support it; if so, someone near that low track could see 2-3" but in general I think it's a 1" in <30 min type setup for most.  Those lapse rates in excess of 9C/km may drag some of the 50KT+ winds down from aloft. Also note the cloud tops at or colder than -30C on the HRRR below - that may support some lightning within the line. 

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is one of the most impressive snow squall soundings i've seen for this area

No doubt. Given the jet moving through, it should have no trouble surviving the mountains and may even get a boost of Atlantic moisture for LI/CT. It's pretty cool to see the tropopause that low, too.

12Z NAM quicker w/ the cold air and has good forcing for a quick 1-3" tomorrow evening. Nice lift w/ that fronto band right in the DGZ. We'll see what other guidance shows. There should also be a brief squall with the true Arctic/Polar front midday Wednesday that could be good for an inch given good lapse rates through the DGZ and 500mb jet forcing. 

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Obviously if you take the 12Z Op Euro verbatim its rough for the coast but the whole dying band/transfer to the coastal is impossible to predict at this range.  Its entirely possible this could be a solid snow event here

Agree it's within the realm of possibility.  Strangely, the 18Z NAM's more consolidated southern vort would do it - could only imagine what the DGEX would show after that. 

18Z Euro/EPS making additional sizeable changes towards coastal redevelopment for next Tues-Wed.

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Too bad CHH didn't get to launch into the core of it.

I was hoping OKX would do an 18Z too. Likely would have set new wind speed records at 850 and 925mb.

34 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What is your opinion on the anafront ?

Miller B somewhat more probable than that, but neither is likely at this point. There are sizeable enough differences in where the clipper, pv and jet sets up between the guidance that confidence is low. We will likely have a better idea when that mess out near the Aleutians comes inland this weekend. The polar wave will also be better sampled by then.

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Yeah the EPS is interesting. 

Another rainstorm verbatim but the PV has been trending deeper into the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic the past few EPS runs. Generally above normal heights around Greenland as well. 

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps is also showing the anafront snow

This will be interesting to track in the upcoming days.

Appears to be hinting at a Miller B, will be interesting to see individual members. I like the trends here.

This pre-frontal feature with embedded rotation is what may bring the gusts down on LI - it might just clip eastern Queens. The cold front is farther NW and has lighter winds associated with it. 90KT+ showing up aloft just off the Jersey Shore.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

High wind gust potential with the squall line this afternoon especially near the coast.

It's a shame we probably won't get an 18Z sounding from OKX. Both 925 and 850mb winds are forecast at record levels the next several hours. 

Fairly widespread 80-85KT winds showing up on the JFK terminal doppler and DIX between 2000-5000', with a few embedded maxes over 90KT, and the jet is still forecast to intensify. Hard to say if it will mix down in a widespread fashion, but I'd imagine a few 50KT gusts are possible in the region between 11-3ish.

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

now the American models aren't even downloading data - Government Shutdown to blame ? --this from tropical tidbits :

Jan 23: NOAA data downloads are very slow today, resulting in model delays. I'm working to retrieve the data.

It may just be that his data feed is affected. This happens a lot, but there are typically folks who remedy it in short order. The US models are running fine and on time, otherwise. 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive 6 SD LLJ event on the NAM. Maybe someone can start a separate thread.

http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/NAM/

00Z NAM upped the ante further with its 100KT 925mb jet over LI/CT. It looks like the upper low over TX/NM has split into two, which helps a secondary low form along the front tomorrow night into early Thursday. PWAT's approaching January records for OKX/CHH on its 00Z runs as well.

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It really didn’t, gfs para did better and so did the euro not to mention that was last night ukmet run

did you miss the part where i was replying to a post on the 00z guidance? 

9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Someone in the very deep south might be in line for snow if it digs for China like some runs have shown. I'd love to see where that would've ended up.

Yeah, I think that look would easily produce snow into GA and the Carolinas. An old school rule of thumb for low pressure movement is to follow the thickness lines in the 6-12hr time frame. We'll see how things evolve the next couple days, but in general there was less evidence for a big coastal on the overnight ops/ensembles. A lot of spread though after the weekend.