purduewx80

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

15Z SREF just jumped on Friday.  It’s a SE PA C-SNJ max but it had virtually squat on the 09Z run.  That said the NAM will probably go south now 

Was suspicious of the NAM because of that, but now it seems like it may be on to something.

5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I am astonshed at this site.

barely flurries in northern NYC, nothing for most of the city. in fact the sun is poking through now and then.

Buffalo gusting to 68MPH now, may not be the highest they see. KBUF 241907Z 24036G59KT

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Remainder of Feb. averaging 41degs., or 5degs AN.

Month to date is +2.1[36.7].      Feb. should end at about +2.6[37.8].

All 8 days averaging 40degs., or 4degs. AN.

March 3 storm already degenerated into the same old setups we've been seeing all winter.

Where are you getting that the rest of Feb is 5F above normal? With the exception of today and Sunday, the rest of the month is at or below normal, with some fairly substantial negative anomalies likely Tuesday-Thursday.

There is still plenty of support for cold storminess on the ensembles as we turn the calendar to March. 

Unfortunately, some of the best frontogenesis associated w/ this system is going into saturating what was a very deep layer of dry air, shown below on the 12Z OKX sounding. While the DGZ was quite thin, if you take into account the wet bulb temp, it's rather deep in that 700-500mb layer. Likely why areas just to the SW are going from 10SM+ vis to <1 in a hurry, earlier than modeled.

The lower-level fronto bands farther south aren't quite tapping into the DGZ, but the better lift is producing +SN.

On 2/18/2019 at 8:38 AM, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I was confused because the radar showed sleet and freezing rain creeping up the Jersey Coast while it was still snowing elsewhere and it actually changed over while this area was still supposedly "snowing" according to the radar.

It's interesting how in previous seasons this kind of storm would have hung on to being snow longer but in this season the changeovers have been happening much more quickly.  Related to the very warm air that's been in the South this month and the strong SE Ridge?

Could look at it as a result of the PNA, but yeah, that was largely the source of the warm air aloft. The western trough also helped steer it our way. Low level cold held due to the position and strength of the Quebec high.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Amount of vertically integrated water vapor transport (a measure of #AtmosphericRiver strength) will potentially exceed all-time February records across far southern CA (mainly south of LA) Thursday morning. This is an impressive signal, and portends major flood risk there.

Separate but related is the record cold season PWAT at San Diego this morning:

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Then how is it that coastal areas switched over far more quickly than anyone else did?

I noticed that the warm tongue came right up from the Jersey shore and hit us before it got to anyone else.  West of that it was still snowing at the same latitude.

The transition worked in from SW to NE, plain and simple. Take a look at the 00Z CHH sounding, for example. The warm layer from 700-800mb rushing in on 50-70KT SW winds caused the changeover - there is certainly not an ocean SW of here. BOS was switching over from SN to a mix of SN, FZRA and PL at the time.

The switch to RA or RAPL was caused by those stiff SE winds down low off the Atlantic, however. 

Be careful of judging precip types by any radar product you find online. They are often determining precip types based off a combo of model initialization and observations, many of which (automated stations especially) aren't able to differentiate between snow and pellets or fzra, etc. 

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's obviously the inexperienced who dont remember what the 80s were like and we live near an Ocean that will always scour out mid level cold air sooner than models forecast.

The ocean has ZERO to do with mid-level temps. That warm layer yesterday was brought in on stiff SW winds. It's more important to understand why southwest flow events bring in that warmth. 

On 2/8/2019 at 9:18 AM, jfklganyc said:

Different pattern, similar conversation, similar result?

nah, not similar to jan 20 or any other storm this winter - at all. if it were similar, it would be raining and well into the 30s by now.

5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Bueller? Buehler?

06Z is 5 hours away...

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

It's interesting that Seattle typically sees 2x as much snow during La Nina and neutral years vs El Nino. No surprise they're cashing in during this -PNA, Nina-like pattern.

Just now, Snow88 said:

What a winter to be in Caribou

They must be over 120 inches for the season with alot more to come.

81.4" since Dec 1 and 114.2" since Jul 1. That's +48.2" for the season.

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

We're in that sweet spot between NNE and the southeast where they've done well (northern MA/SNE, that is).  Not as well to the north and south.  They were thinking a more traditional nino pattern I believe.

yeah, you're exactly right.

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

not bad at all, one of the best for sure

to date, not so good for the east as a whole.

11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The winter forecast that NOAA put out back in October is the one that's been closest so far.  They were not gung ho on much winter in this area

As a reminder:

Dec 1 - Feb 2 anomalies (from Maue's twitter):

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The model numbers at this range for a SWFE are unusually high given we are almost 5 days out.  At this range you usually see 1-2 inches maybe 3 because they don’t see the impact of the CAD or high at this range.  Seeing amounts of 4-5-7 inches showing up could mean we still see a drastic change in how this whole thing evolves 

We really aren't that far off a Virginia/OuterBanks to Benchmark track for the secondary on a lot of the ensemble means. Given the source region of the high coming into the Plains now, there will be plenty of low-level cold air around. If anything, I think a lot of the interior could end up starting as snow and ending as freezing rain/drizzle, with any substantial warmup above freezing limited to the coast.

Just 1 operational run as an example, but last night's 00Z GFS:

That is a monster +height anomaly showing up.

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Well we did have a snowy march last Year

I'm not saying it won't snow like crazy, I'm just saying it's unreasonable to expect snow on the ground for 7 weeks straight. 

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I beg to differ I think we have a lot of snow and it could stay for 7 weeks

Expecting snow to stick around for 7 weeks in NYC in a warming climate and ever-expanding urban heat island is highly unreasonable any time of year, let alone Feb-March.

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

It does appear the NAO is finally going negative in the next 7-10 days.  The problem is it appears the PNA isn’t going positive so I’m not sure the pattern gets markedly better.  I do think NYC might end up seeing double digit snowfall this month.   The thing is it might all be washed away each time by rain.  Think February 1993.  I think we had 3 SWFEs and about 11-12 inches that month but nothing was on the ground for more than 12 hours 

Agreed. The last few runs of the op GFS have shown a substantial -NAO block that develops by the middle/end of next week. EPS/GEFS have it to a lesser degree but that has been the case for a good part of the past month, to no avail. There does seem to be a pattern in the past ~decade to see a -NAO in spring rather than winter, so if that comes to fruition, I think it could stick around through March.

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Phantom.   GFS has shown that several times this past winter and last few.   -NAO has been rare the last 6 years

I wouldn't exactly say rare.

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Jma is weenish

I know I'm a weenie and people think I chase everything but the Mjo is looking great with the high amplitudes. Usually with that, the PNA and AO should respond.

you were one of the few to call that november storm. nothing wrong with being a ween as long as expectations are realistic. there are conflicting signals next week, but there is still plenty of evidence that the pattern has changed enough for us to be in the game.

Surprised none of the  have mentioned the 12Z JMA...

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Definitely but I think other places may see it too. 

I feel many places will get to 65 or better Friday, 850 temps are through the roof. 

front passes early and there will be plenty of low clouds around.