purduewx80

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

@snowman19

 

7 is still warm in Feb. 

5-7 are the warm phases this time of year, not sure where some of you are getting your info. 

~Decadal February climo may be hard to beat in the Southeast and Northern Rockies/Plains. 

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Eastern Carolina’s are solidly in moderate drought with some severe drought areas starting to show 

Soil moisture is pretty dire in the coastal plain. Really need these areas to catch up prior to consistently warmer weather, which seems unlikely at this point.

We're probably going to need the -NAO (GH) to return in some form to get any wintry precip chances outside of the mountains and/or Piedmont in fleeting CAD setups. Ridging at the edge of the Pacific(PR) and Alaska(AKR) domains will continue to bring Arctic air into North America, but it seems destined to spend the most time in the typical Niña spots from New England to the Rockies and PacNW. Gonna be hard to avoid a top 10 warmest February in parts of the Southeast imo.

Looking forward to off-and-on highs in the 70s and an early spring here in ATL.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

OT but due to higher vis here: Should outside spigots be dripped or not?

The Freeze Miser work great on outdoor faucets. Makes more sense to use these (or allow drips) in the South because we don't have lengthy periods of super cold weather; otherwise, they probably would freeze up. You leave the faucet on, and this allows a very slow drip when temperatures drop below about 35. Mine have worked well with temps in the teens a few nights in a row - both froze up solid prior to grabbing these from Amazon.

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Gefs extended gets the wave in Phase 8 by February 20th. That's a good Phase with a trough in the east.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

The bias corrected Euro sits and spins in the warm phases, which is similar to the CFS. 
 

Weird expansion of advisories and warnings today, snow is over for most of Atlanta but the “damage” is done. 
 

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you agree @purduewx80and @SnowGoose69and @CheeznadoATL may be about to get snow? Not only the radar, but Columbus and especially Auburn have been getting snow recently. Also, doesn’t the 1000 ft elevation help ATL? And @dsaur ~30-40 miles south just started getting snow!

Yep, looks like 85 will be the rough dividing line between mood flakes and minor impacts. 

NWS Atlanta will do an 18Z sounding. Most of the 12Z models appear to have initialized too moist at 850mb, and it still appears to be a struggle to saturate looking at the higher scans from BMX and FFC radars. 

6th driest 850 dewpoint on record at the Atlanta office this morning, last night’s was the 4th driest. gonna take a bit to saturate. 

These squalls are a good indicator of the true Arctic air coming in. Much steeper low level lapse rates develop as 850s tank. 

AIFS has been more or less consistent for days. Upper jet dynamics look great but deep moisture peeling off to the east Saturday night and the wave’s fast progression should limit amounts outside of a mesoscale heavier band. 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Warmth is now gone on the models for February.

good luck with that 

Re: February, most of the Gulf is still balmy so severe wx is gonna pick up in a hurry  

https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-24-0016.1

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO AI has a monster storm

It has consistently shown a modest snowfall for the mountains into VA Sunday-Monday, but it’s nowhere near a monster anywhere. After that it overwhelms the Southeast with cold/dry weather. 

It's probably going to be hard to avoid a robust Southeast ridge in the extended, with high confidence that the Pacific Ridge (PR) dominates from the end of January through February - GEFS and EPS are both showing this. What could help earlier in the period is the Alaska Ridge (AKR), since that will dump Arctic air into the heart of the continent. Overrunning events may still occur, especially northern parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but it looks like most 00Z guidance further suppressed the storm track with the AKR pattern and Arctic cold overwhelming things later next week before a more significant warmup occurs. 

Curious to see if we'll be able keep the relatively cooler (or less warm) anomalies along the East Coast that have occurred in both December and January so far (last 60 days depicted at the bottom).

2.1” of snow/sleet at ATL and 0.25” of freezing rain so far. 

GA closing in on 100k outages. Winds beginning to ease after the indicated peak gusts over the last few hours.

Definitely have a thickening glaze on everything elevated now after a little melting midday. Power outages have quickly surged on the NW/W side of metro Atlanta into northeast Alabama with some gusts of 25-35 mph. Good setup for freezing drizzle much of the night after the main precipitation shield exits, which is more efficient at accretion. 

The Carolinas are increasingly under the convergent quadrant of the upper jet, which diminishes the lift needed to maintain the band of heavier snow. Low level dynamics will kick in this afternoon but the DGZ is too high up for most areas to see the snow rates observed this morning. 

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Yes, there is a pretty strong line of thunderstorms that have developed off shore.  Don't know if it is enought to impact our storm at this point.  Will just have to watch it.  

That has little to nothing to do with it. The jet dynamics are becoming more unfavorable with time, resulting in weakening frontogenesis near and above 700mb, which had been tapping into the dendritic growth zone earlier this morning. The bulk of our moisture with this higher up forcing came from the Pacific. Low level winds out of the E or SE are also bringing in drier air out of the weakening surface high. 

3.1” here prior to the sleet we have now. Some -FZRA mixing in. Will be curious to see if the “unmodeled” snow cover will maintain freezing temps at the surface despite SE winds. Models seem to be handling winds ahead of the inverted surface trough well, as gusts of 25-35 mph are being reported in central MS. 

No surprise there’s heavy snow occurring across Atlanta with this intense forcing from frontogenesis. Will be progressive but could pivot as it weakens over TN and western NC.  http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/