purduewx80
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Posts posted by purduewx80
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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:
Alot of qpf on the mean
Yep - I'd say that's the most well agreed upon part of the forecast. Friday's system helps open up the Gulf for business.
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Steady as she goes on the 12Z EPS next weekend w/ 850 temps touching 0; otherwise track of the mean low would be favorable for mostly frozen precip here. May be some boundary layer issues Friday but I think that's worth watching for a few inches, too.
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Just now, snowman19 said:
Not even the normally colder Para GFS is showing anything like the Euro. For now, op Euro vs the world. EPS should be interesting
nope. all the ensembles favor a colder storm than the GFS and GEM ops.
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54 minutes ago, etudiant said:
Is this a model difference issue or am I missing something important?
Yes, the FV3 is the new version of the GFS; the pivotalwx link is for the current operational version. They are entirely different models.
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10 minutes ago, etudiant said:
Believe this show temperatures anomalies rather than temperatures. Still seriously chilly though.
It literally says 2m temperatures on the top. Ridging from the North Pole to just N of Alaska through the extended period has already and will continue to deliver frigid air into North America. Widespread -30s in place over the NW Territories this morning.
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The RAP is an excellent model but should only be used inside of 12 hours.
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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:
Looks great but more squashed than 0z because the pv is pressing more on this run and the wave before the storm was stronger
Southern stream lagging too. Snowing with sub-zero wind chills in NYC is nothing to sneeze at. That airmass pressing in looks brutal.
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Just now, NEG NAO said:
MJO is favorable in 4 and 5 ???
the amplitude is not forecast nearly as high as back in december
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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:
Maybe a compromise between all the guidance showing a hugger tracking close to NYC ala the GFS and GEM?
I'd say a superensemble approach like that is definitely the best right right now.
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1 minute ago, bluewave said:
Looks like the typical OP Euro digging the PV too much over SE Canada days 8-10. For some reason the OP loves to do this at that range.
Yep, was exactly a week ago that the 12Z run showed this weekend's storm as a monster.
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11 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:
On a more postive note, the Euro is adjusting the polar vortex south on this run, should see a better solution for the 20th.
yup, going to be big. hope the EPS makes the same changes.
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This is simply a more advanced version of Deep Thunder (or MPAS) that has been making the rounds the past year or two. Operational forecasters currently only have access to the 15km version; 3km is not yet available so it's tough to say how well it will perform.
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EPS looks a bit better w/ the confluence in the NE Sunday; more QPF on the mean as well.
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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:
That's really an impressive sounding for January. It will be interesting to see the reports later on.
No kidding; 12Z soundings out in the Lakes/Midwest have 7-8 C/km lapse rates! The 500mb jet max currently poking into the Chicago area will be favorably placed for strong lift around midnight tonight.
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Looks like another non-zero risk of thunderstorms in the area overnight. Steep lapse rates with the approaching upper trough will provide some minimal CAPE ahead of its associated cold front. Could mainly be gusty showers for the NYC area 11-2 tonight; lightning appears most likely for the mountains to the W and N.
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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:
Gefs and para Gfs are stil showing a storm signal for this weekend.
Close on ECM/EPS too. EPS made some nice changes at 500mb out west...Pacific not crashing the party quite as hard as before w/ more ridging in the Rockies.
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convective precip this afternoon is mainly driven by the 500mb jet nosing into areas south of montauk and the islands - both left front quad dynamics and diffluent flow are contributing to lift. thunderstorms really took off out there as a result and robbed the metro area of moisture and the overall best conditions. there is an mcv south of kmtp that is part of the broader low and mid-level circulations.
today is a good example of how mesoscale features can steal the show with some of these coastal lows. very few if any models consistently nailed the two-max precip; occurring well nw and se of the city. communicating how important nowcasting is over model-hugging can be a huge part of a meteorologist's job, despite the push to make operational decisions sometimes days in advance.
perhaps this is somewhat moot today since it's far too warm for snow. as the pattern becomes more favorable for colder air invading in the medium range and beyond, we should all keep in mind the myriad of reasons why there can be huge differences in snow amounts across the city and northeast in general with nor'easters and other coastal storms.
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there's a pretty cool ~850mb feature over northern jersey producing some heavy downpours in the region.
with favorable synoptic support in most of the eastern mid-atlantic and southern new england, it now just comes down to the multiple, smaller areas of lift that rotate around the deepening, complex low. i think some of the heavier precip that has yet to develop should focus near the trowal (trough of warm air aloft) this afternoon. most of the hi-res seem to favor areas just s and e of the city for the deeper convection, including parts of the jersey shore and long island.
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Just now, NEG NAO said:
good luck having that verifying - chances are the setup will be completely different
it very well may be, but it's significant to me that the ensembles have for several runs in a row now shown a colder coastal storm at that point.
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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:
The EPS members were mostly N and W of NYC though...a few showed a hit this far south....(didn't view the CMC or GFS so not sure there)
N and W with what exactly...the upper trough? The mean takes the low from offshore SC to offshore Novia Scotia. I'd say that's a cold track; in fact, I'd be more concerned with another SE/Mid-Atlantic special with that look than a warm solution. Literally the actual vast majority of ensembles have a cold storm d9 or 10.
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25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:
LOL-that's an op run 9-10 days out. Pure fantasy. The euro ensembles are much less enthused about the storm. My point was in a general sense-go back to the winter of 12-13, we finally got cold and it was dry for 15 straight days...
totally untrue. if you look at the clustering of canadian, euro and gfs ensembles, the vast majority favor the cold storm.
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41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:
RGEM coming in really wet for tomorrow-most other models are much drier:
i think a takeaway from all the guidance today is that there is still a lot of spread in where the QPF max lies. can't wait til it's actually cold enough for snow and we're shoulder shrugging 24 hours in advance.
January 2019 General Discussion & Observations
in New York City Metro
Posted
That WaPo article appears to have been incorrect in regards to the GFS "not being tweaked". Aside from any 100% normal changes in forecast skill, there are no obvious issues being caused by the shutdown.
There have been some minor issues with NWS offices not receiving shipments of helium/equipment to launch their balloons. OKX was one of those offices that missed a few soundings in the past week. As far as I understand, no data is going missed other than a 1-off RAOB here and there.