purduewx80

The 12Z DVN sounding has impressive mid-level lapse rates just under 9C/km. Very warm in the low levels, which means capping ahead of it should prevent any junky convection lowering the risk of a bust.

HRRRx keeps showing some small pockets of 75-85KT wind gusts, fairly widespread 55-65KT gusts. Probably some QLCS spinups in there too.

Pretty shocked the meh SPC outlook doesn't even mention any risk for upgrade given everything going on. Already a rear inflow jet on the SD/NE activity.

Jan/Feb ECM outlook fits into the standard La Nina:

Seems pretty straightforward to me. Test, trace, federal mask mandate w/ fines for non-compliance. If we’d had a total 6-week shutdown nationally in the spring, we wouldn’t have to deal with these conspiracies, mis-information and the trolls in this godawful thread.

At least three probable waterspouts out there now:

now up to 4.19" at MKE in the past 3 hours. radar is significantly underestimating totals there.

lake-effect getting going near Milwaukee now:

view from the office tonight

Already some rainfall totals of 1-3" across the urban core (highest south side). Given incoming storms and several rounds of lake-effect convection tonight and again tomorrow night, I'd expect some significant urban flooding will result.

la nina ftw

early monday could deliver. most 00z guidance has a meso-low over the southern end of the lake with lake-induced CAPE up to ~2000 j/kg.

You can always get tested so you know for sure. What you're describing definitely fits within the wide range of symptoms people experience, but it could just as easily be something else.

I'd add the "plandemic" video and widespread sharing of pseudo-science and misinformation on social media to that list. And maybe mental illness.

TN is the 4th fattest and 10th poorest state.

@Hoosier I have to question why the mods keep allowing people to make such blatantly political posts.

for now I'm more enthused about the potential for excessive rain in the metro. nice signal for a prolonged low level jet focus in the area this evening...including the 12Z NAM (below) and 09/12Z RPM.

Stranger things have happened. The MCV that developed over Lake Erie a few days ago also had a surface circulation and winds near these levels. The MCV already has a surface low co-located with it, and there are 30-35KT gusts N and E of it down in KS this morning. If it is able to maintain some convection near its center, then something along those lines is possible this evening. Similar to the Brown Ocean Effect sometimes allowing tropical systems to intensify over land when you have sufficient heat and moisture flux from the ground.

This pandemic is revealing how poorly educated average Americans are in science. There’s a HUGE difference between gases and droplets containing viruses, but keep believing your conspiracy theories and see where that gets ya.

Science and technology will help us win in the end, so I'm not sure I'd say never. I'm definitely not convinced the old American Way will be part of our future, though.

another big ol' check in the bad news column. re-infections have occurred within a few months for some people and are often worse the 2nd time around. rosy visions of herd immunity and vaccines knocking this out should be put on hold until larger-sample-sized studies can be done.

MCV + 2" PWATs....gonna be some flood threat too. Also...this is unreal for July. Phenomenal jet dynamics in play.

this explains a lot about your position on the virus and economy.

This RAP fcst sounding from the southern tip of Lake Michigan at 12Z tomorrow morning is nothing short of impressive. That's lake-induced CAPE...suspect there will be some waterspouts out there in the morning. Can't rule out a thunderstorm making it into parts of Chicago and NW Indiana as the surge of cooler air moves in. 00Z HRRR valid at 12Z:

upper low moving in will support destabilization. projecting out cells in NE IA now...they would be here closer to 11-12, but there could be some development out ahead of it. Cu growth has occurred so you can see the signs of instability building behind the AM activity.