midatlanticweather

I will stop posting this guy until we see if what he says holds any water. Here was his post today. I have no idea if this is true. The challenge, of course, is did we flip because of what he has identified or was it just luck. I saw the comments that his upper air charts were not really at the levels to be doing PV predictions. A re-curvature is known to do a disruption, so maybe that is nothing surprising really. Also, snow where? Snow in the east is what he has been focusing on.. but how far east? Inland NE would really be the only place I would see snow being possible before Thanksgiving except maybe some mountain love. Oh well.

We can all hope! Here you go @Yeoman - some more Twitter info!

Well, when looking for specifics, NO, but pattern evolution can start showing days before the long range and you can start to look for consistency. GFS, though, can become completely inconsistent in one run! LOL! I know all models can. But it is just a tool.

GFS did a good old Flip Flop - the model in the long-range is pretty poor - but I have seen it do better on things in the short & mid-range Yesterday and today! I must remember the rule - we do warm well!

We could!

Suppression and southern sliders will make my skin boil! LOL! I suspect we could see that DC snow hole!

Keeps showing up just location keeps jumping

Seems Cohen is also mentioning the disruptions. Though, I struggle with Cohen's analysis from his poor record. At least he is mentioning the uncertainty.. which is always there in the long-range!

30.8 for a low with a frosty start in Purcellville

It is not just recently. It had been temperamental for a while. I should have done something about it sooner. I will say it seems to be getting worse.. But that could be perception. It is the wifi connection supposedly but it always shows as connected even if it it doesn't work.

Acurite Atlas. The station itself seems fine, but the connection to the wifi is inconsistent. I have to reset the base every time and that loses data. Mine went offline at about 1am. Acurite seems to have this issue frequently. I am looking to either invest in a Davis or get a specific bridge for the data. It is annoying. Acurite is the lower tier weather stations so I should not be surprised, but the Atlas is the pricier one of their products.

As usual, the connection was lost again on my weather station. Looks like a low of 29.. My station showed 30 when I looked at it - but the tracking was not there. Regardless, we had a great freeze this morning making certain the growing season was done!

Thoughts on this analysis?

The trends on Sunday seem wetter.

Anyone have the roundup on lows?

35.4 for a low here in Purcellville. Looked and we kept a light breeze so I guess it was just enough to keep Temps up a bit more than expected. Some clouds too. Up to 37 now.

Twisters is coming! https://www.today.com/popculture/movies/twister-sequel-what-we-know-rcna52689 Sequel to Twister

Location changes a little but still there.. Was on 0Z too but a bit smaller. I am not even the slight bit believing it. Just sharing