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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

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  1. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    SC/NC coast @168 (idk details)
  2. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    h5 is flat early, but the flow seems to be leaving as the low approaches.
  3. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I'm saying no squash as a guess.
  4. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    lol, low in Mexico Sat 0z on euro
  5. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    From Crankyweather fwiw " The current stop sign of any modeling is the southern Plains. From there your reactive responses to the timing of the arrivial of the polar pieces greatly varies not just model to model but run to run and that WILL continue through Wednesday. "
  6. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Cranky wrote a nice synopsis of the pattern. http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120218.htm
  7. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Great hashtag!
  8. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    fv3 is stuck at hr120.
  9. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Almost like the wave behind the low. Perhaps those two vort maxes can phase in later runs? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120218/gfs_z500_vort_namer_34.png
  10. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    One thing I'd like to see more of is interpreting h5 and asking whether the op surface maps support that idea. Many well-recognized mets do this very well. We can learn better!
  11. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I don't think large Gulf moisture plumes fail to come north that often.
  12. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    all of them (including 2016)
  13. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    HH watch eta: cancelled
  14. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Should be slightly nw of 12z.
  15. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I'm on IWP and there appears to be a slowing trend of the development and forward movement of the moisture. Both 6z and 12z were a good few hundred miles ahead at hr 144.
  16. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    DT mentioned in his video yesterday that the energy on Wednesday looked strong enough for models to trend toward snow showers/squalls during the day.
  17. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    just stating facts that people in the main thread can't accept
  18. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    A big factor against our chances is most of the teleconnections head into the wrong signals for a winter storm.
  19. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Does it not show rain there as well?
  20. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    There has never been a winter storm that didn't have at least one model run with suppression.
  21. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    That's going to be a wacky snow map.
  22. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    when there's no more cold air.
  23. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Let us go to bed! eta: ty Yoda
  24. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I see a warm nose, but by golly that track looks interesting on ttb.
  25. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Almost a carbon copy eta: except Philly joins NYC
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