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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

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  1. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    All things considered, this is not a bad comparison! Two great snow seasons
  2. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I'm really struggling to find analogs for a nina that had low heights over the northern plains along with above normal heights over northeast Pacific in October. Also, Europe tends to be above normal.
  3. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    How strong is this nina supposed to be?
  4. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I would much rather have a warm October for winter's purposes.
  5. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    This is pretty far out, but it's looking more like October won't be so chilly after all!
  6. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    2011 to 2013 came close.
  7. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    70 years of data is not unreliable. I don't appreciate you always criticizing my work.
  8. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Since 1950, only one cold October weak nina year had slightly above average snowfall at DCA. Most decent winters with cold Octobers were ninos.
  9. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Our last October trace on snow was 2011-2012. Cold Octobers are bad for our winter.
  10. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    That was me last year.
  11. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    More support for a crappy winter
  12. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Bastardi hinted at favoring a northern Plains winter.
  13. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Maybe she'll do a mini loop back into phase 8 for mid February. I'm not saying that I think that will happen, but think it's possible.
  14. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Does the null phase of the MJO necessarily foreshadow near average weather conditions?
  15. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Trends in the MJO towards a null phase are concerning to me.
  16. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    You all left me hanging Monday night!
  17. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    The MJO is alive and well, so winter will return with vengeance in a few weeks (though probably next month)!
  18. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    For anyone concerned about the second half of winter, check out the MJO charts from early winter 2013-2015! They actually align quite well!
  19. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    This MJO loop back to phase 5 is not a promising one for the long range.
  20. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Strong nino
  21. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    There's something about February ending winter nina droughts and other variables I haven't looked into yet.
  22. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    bump
  23. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Fwiw, 2014 ended its drought big time the first week of February.
  24. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    2011 was no dud, but I see why you mentioned that. No other 3 year span comes close to those though. eta: 1949-1953 may have been bad even with the low double digits overall, but the law of averages resulting from 2012-2013 ended in our favor.
  25. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I don't think dca has ever had 3 extreme dud winters in a row (though this year isn't done yet).
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