BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Wow the 18z runs (GFS, ll GFS) are way different from previous runs. Strong -NAO: Gone; becomes + 50/50 and PV combine to form an elongated area of LP +PNA gets displaced well to the west The 18z "off run" could not be anymore pronounced. Dec 12 2009, 06:54 PM

Most model are pretty close with a northern/southern stream phase, but the energy is just lagging behind a little bit. Dec 12 2009, 12:30 PM

I think our chances are better for the clipper than the other storm. I really like the clipepr set-up. more importantly, there is plenty of snow that follows the clipper. Dec 12 2009, 11:53 AM

" The period I am most interested in seeing unfold is from the 15th though the 22nd. Why? Teleconnections support a -NAO, but it has to be west based, problem is though with the polar vortex displaced eastward, it is creating a ridge near the 50N latitude and 50W longitude, where the low is supposed to be and the low is further east out over the open ocean. The tracks of the 850mb low and the surface low are very important as well, but this timeframe is still over 10 days if talking about the 21st through the 24th. It appears that the first storm slated from the 15th through the 17th will be the storm to bring the cold arctic airmass southward, where temperatures will moderate in the Northeast for a time Monday and Tuesday as highs get into the 40s south and 30s north, and then drop into the mid 20s for highs on or after Wednesday, more likely 20s north and 30s south. There have been signals on the models that the storm will stall as well near the Canadian Maritimes, and a high to the west could spell trouble for at least the potential for ocean effect showers. Rain or snow I don't know at this point, but based on those low 850mb temps and surface temps likely to follow the storm for the 20th through the 22nd, we could be in for a rude awakening. -AO will allow the displacement of a very cold airmass likely not to come into the region until sometime around mid week next week, a +PNA will allow for a west coast ridge to spike up into canada, perhaps displacing the polar vortex and depending upon the location of this polar vortex will determine the amplification and placement of the 500mb trough. The placement of the axis of this trough will determine where the low develops and where it tracks. A lot to work out, but no matter what the track is right now on the models, what counts is that they have the storm in the right time frame. To me it looks like they do. " Dec 10 2009, 11:20 AM

" Looks OTS for right now but it's early. And whomever posted the thing above about TWC having you at rain/snow for the 20th, TWC doesn't know anything and it is nine days away. Every storm seems to be a nowcasting scenario these days, right? " Dec 12 2009, 12:03 AM

I'm going to share a bunch of quotes from Accuweather's forums from December 2009 leading up to Snowpocalyspe. I'll leave most of the authors anonymous. Ty Mappy for the link! forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=15795&st=120

I'm going to post a sub with quotes from Mappy's link. I have no life. yw

Found it! http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/12/forecast_windy_and_mild_today.html The weekend will probably remain mostly on the cold side and a couple disturbances could work through the area. As of right now (and this is subject to change as we get closer to the weekend) we are looking at a 20% chance of snow showers on Saturday increasing to 30% on Sunday. We're still keeping a close eye on the possibility of a coastal storm. Highs should be near 40 with lows in the 20s. Confidence: Low By Matt Rogers | December 15, 2009; 5:00 AM ET

It's hard to find anything! Googling CWG from December 2009 doesn't come up with much in a Google search.

Sorry for all the posts at once, but did anyone notice the delay of the storm until Monday now?

Look how the higher heights position farther east over the last 3 0Z eps runs. I'm optimistic!

just right for Miller As!

The current modeling shows that, but it's far from certain.

Look how close the high and low heights are to aligning in textbook fashion on the euro! All we need is a slightly faster ns and slower ss. That's much better than hoping for the ss to speed up in westerly flow! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120312/ecmwf_z500a_eus_7.png

That can still change.

Where have the ensembles shown the high?

I've learned that's always true for Mid Atlantic winter storm threats.

Up next March 2013

Colder in the panhandle

Too much latent heat can really force things south. I almost missed the euro! eta: You asked for it.

New rule! I call it the 7-5-3 rule...the big ones lose the storm on days 7, 5, and 3 before the consistency strengthens.

Not so much sne

We're in a great spot with lots of wiggle room that will continue through mid week.

I'll take that low placement any winter!

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