BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Exactly what we need for djf!

This is way out there, but here's the first sign of November possibly heating up!

Bastardi is on Weatherbrains.

Perspecta Weather's Winter Outlook is textbook! https://www.perspectaweather.com/20182019-winter-outlook?fbclid=IwAR2Mu-ujks2I4A2Rpm6pxV9PxdVBNUCLU7zQb5C4VGm7OyuLZkFdAVKFM_0

Maybe for the run defense. Every week there's at least one deep downfield blown coverage play!

There's other ongoing research behind paywalls unfortunately. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3942-0 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0298.1

Here's a start. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL063306%4010.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007.CALDROUGHT1 On the blob..."For the southern portion of the high SLP anomaly, weaker than normal winds from the west induced anomalously weak Ekman transports of colder water from the north. An additional contribution was made by a near‐normal eastward component of the current acting on a preexisting zonal gradient in the SST anomaly distribution."

He's missing a "the" lmao

The pattern signals are so ideal that I'm just going to say that I expect November to heat up.

For anyone who wants to give JB a chance, watch today's Saturday Summary! He goes in depth for analogs for our region's blockbuster winters. https://www.weatherbell.com/premium

Advisory level precip in the mountains perhaps?

I think a warm November is exactly what we need for a memorable winter.

I don't think this fits in any other sub-forums...NOAA's awesome D.C. uhi study! https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/detailed-maps-urban-heat-island-effects-washington-dc-and-baltimore?fbclid=IwAR2nAJxqRZQYIRMBFQzQtI-rfwYYMolh_XKraW2Bo_cFtW90hLfmNzcvaq0

I'm pretty sure that a classic March el nino is early spring.

I will always advocate for minimizing the real social media banter that's more public than here. Banter should still have filters and it starts with all of us. I'm not necessarily saying we need more moderation, just that we can make this a better place for everyone!

Man would it be a treat to have a winter pattern settle in this early for months on end! I'm loving trends!

I hope these cold outbreaks aren't arriving too early for our region. https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.perspectaweather.com%2Fblog%2F2018%2F10%2F15%2F1255-pm-numerous-cold-air-outbreaks-for-the-eastern-us-during-the-second-half-of-october&h=AT1GR4ApG-c35z8JjW6lmFxNkG2xW_fE8uQh3K36vnN9skPQPdwP-v8rZ47qjvagrgK2iCySnbh4jiUC7UfO8vdvxVxZgZXTlaj5rXNxdlcUL1aYbLWKKKbbdqjX4Ou-xqPcOPMgJUVDkDxEQhsQal6QyuHX1kFrjyo-4wYLlQj9cQawDpH4u0PnH0GiNxHXGQ6paanZPJVQ-zdHr1kOvHjqbkeOoVjr1TC0m8ohInBaZjiFL1yK2xydvR6_KAIMUARb8zAIjx6vZuhgk20gPZ0vOaWH_yFYxRP4HAqTDuG9-Rk67c_KBROMvUvbfOgziUJRwtc0CVajYs3F30mVcNfe4XZyTDEgmd-sPqMOXEElZ070AoZJLDdGhSEcghvQ3I2nG8Vih4I8sUNhfnz9Wk-Dbw5vYA

Bastardi is all over that analog! October CONUS temps are close to a mirror image with the torch start transition to negative late.

I read that as ending 2018 with a +nao. Thanks for clearing that up!

Can you believe that last kick was good? lol

What about CIPS?

I've always gone off this generally which shows a -T tendency for nino years. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/

What shows +Ts?

Since 1986, every 8 years we've had a moderate modoki nino! 1986-87, 1994-95, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2018-19? We're due!