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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    I was just perusing the NE forum and one of the posters over there shared a teller from Eric Webb a meteorologist and he shows the ECMWF forecast for next week and a PV split sending a lobe right over Hudson Bay late next week...right around the same time that GFS system appears...The same euro shows that as a Miller B which we would love here and not the A the GFS is showing...all in all next week appears to my untrained eye to hold our first very real shot at something significant.
  2. Thinksnow18
    One has to think that a track like that no chance it rains back in WNY especially when the 540 line is east in eastern NY and we straddle about -4c...at this time that would put us below freezing. If that look stays it’ll straighten out.
  3. Thinksnow18
    The only difference is at that time I’d be cranking some Metallica while driving in that...hopefully we see that this January
  4. Thinksnow18
    Honestly this could’ve been a decent little event if it weren’t for the low ratios but it is still white out so...
  5. Thinksnow18
    back edge of the precip is almost upon us
  6. Thinksnow18
    That’s crazy
  7. Thinksnow18
    Gotta say if the temps were 3 or 4 degrees colder this would’ve been a 6 to 10 inch event...but these ratios are 4 to 1 at best
  8. Thinksnow18
    Lake effect/enhancement always intrigued me. The cutoff lines from heavy snow and scenarios like this are amazing. Can literally change from one town to the other
  9. Thinksnow18
    Not raining in Williamsville I’d be surprised if it’s raining 3 miles away at the airport
  10. Thinksnow18
    Soooo when are we huntin???
  11. Thinksnow18
    Been snowing since about 5am and the intensity has really picked up the last hour...grass and roads covered and it’s pretty much a damn mess out there...I love it
  12. Thinksnow18
    Just wait around there long enough and I’m certain in this pattern you’ll have a much better chance to score a snowstorm before we do back home.
  13. Thinksnow18
    If the mid Atlantic cashes in before I do I'm selling my Jobu doll...cerrano was right...
  14. Thinksnow18
    I think this has minor overachiever potential
  15. Thinksnow18
    They’re catching on
  16. Thinksnow18
    I do like this next event is trending south. This might be a gradient type setup yet
  17. Thinksnow18
    I hunk like you stated yesterday we score on one of these chances
  18. Thinksnow18
    GFS is now predicting rain for Xmas eve, literally flipping from the 6z model...the only consistency is the inconsistency
  19. Thinksnow18
    That would equate to about 4 to 8 inches area wide
  20. Thinksnow18
    I’d say that’s 2-4 but it’s still small potatoes
  21. Thinksnow18
    The Xmas miracle???
  22. Thinksnow18
    Been reading similar info...starting to get the feeling that the warm January and February might not come to fruition
  23. Thinksnow18
    Agreed
  24. Thinksnow18
    I will ALWAYS defer to the early lake dynamics...I say it every year and it’s something models and Mets never pick up on...the band placement is generally 5 to 10 miles too far south due to the warmer lake waters bending or curving the band further north. Just as the GFS has a cold bias the meso models have a south bias, at least early in the season
  25. Thinksnow18
    So the NWS says metro and a sloppy inch or two and the local Mets say south
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