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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Lol whatever you see it’s more than the model output
  2. Thinksnow18
    Match that with the current model outputs...if you could
  3. Thinksnow18
    I just checked on the first panel of the 12z run and it is way off the current obs...example it has all of southern Ohio in rain...current obs moderate snow at Cincinnati and all of southeastern Ohio...the shield of precip is much wider at this time vs what is pictured in the models...I’m not puking positive as my wife says but I do think this is a nowcast scenario and models should be treated with caution
  4. Thinksnow18
    HRRR makes no sense. There is heavy snow all the way down to Cincinnati still and filling in...the primary is stronger and will promote more snowfall than being predicted...I’m Thinksnow18 and I approve this message...
  5. Thinksnow18
    A lot of 1” at KBUF I’m curious with a .2” to .3” of liquid how that’s going to happen, negative nancies!
  6. Thinksnow18
    Buf - 3 Roc - 5 Syr - 7 Bing - 18 Alb - 17
  7. Thinksnow18
    That would place almost all of WNY in the advisory category
  8. Thinksnow18
    In fact if you notice the 4.1” due east of Ontario? Swing that into the Niagara peninsula and the Niagara frontier because it’s not going to be an east wind. Forecast is for a NE wind so immediately that would make no sense. I agree someone along those 3 counties are going to see solid advisory snows.
  9. Thinksnow18
    I do believe the global models are underestimating the lake enhancement off Ontario, in fact the NWS even mentioned it in their discussion. They didn’t give it an accumulation but did say the Niagara frontier tomorrow am would make travel aggravating...I think that meso model is on to it and I would include all of Orleans, Niagara and parts of northern Erie as well... think what It would look like at the opposite end of the lake and reverse it to this end.
  10. Thinksnow18
    The primary is definitely under-modeled at this point. I can see at least 3 areas of divergence for certain and could argue 4 or 5
  11. Thinksnow18
    That high end has changed by about 2”
  12. Thinksnow18
    Right on that 2-3” cutoff for Buffalo. I’m a little NE of there so a little more comfortable I suppose, but the amounts still suck.
  13. Thinksnow18
    I think it’s worth it to separate them for nowcasting and obs, that way we can still snow shame Matt on this thread and put our paltry totals on the other!!! Win win
  14. Thinksnow18
    If there is ONE iota this could be under done in WNY, the current radar does not match the first panel of the GFS 6z run. The 6z has very little snowfall yet and actual radar is lit up. Maybe the first low is giving the models trouble?
  15. Thinksnow18
    Matt are you here???
  16. Thinksnow18
    Snowhole Matt
  17. Thinksnow18
    Sad to see how quiet it is on here this morning...hopefully next week brings the goods as the Xmas storm is all over the place and I’m not in the mood for just another deep dry cold shot after a storm missed us.
  18. Thinksnow18
    I would’ve done a good job not laughing hysterically
  19. Thinksnow18
    If that forecast holds, and really it’s about 10 days out, it would easily usher in highs in the teens.
  20. Thinksnow18
    That’s classic -NAO, -AO and +PNA
  21. Thinksnow18
    Waaaay ahead of you.
  22. Thinksnow18
    So we do get about 1 per year. That’s not a bad average.
  23. Thinksnow18
    What’s this LES you speak of???
  24. Thinksnow18
    What is odd is I saw a stat today that it was since February 27th of this past winter we were below freezing all day for the high...it was 290 days
  25. Thinksnow18
    I thought we were just shy but my memory is as good as 10 second Tom in 50 first dates...
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