Thinksnow18

Exactly and I read by PSUHoffman from the MA forum that if the second event (Monday) it would further push the Wednesday Thursday event further north following the trailing trough...this could be a good sign

It’s moving more NW with each run. Our area will see accumulation just how much is the question. We’ve seen this show before and normally the I95 crew is crying in the end

A post from the NE forum pastes a NWS text that states the sampling of the pacific SW can’t really begin to be sampled until Sunday and with that believes the NW trend will continue...getting a bit more intrigued

Yessir 6z came even further NW and gives WNY a better shot...the trend is our friend? GFS also throws in an ENE wind component that would add enhancement off Ontario...today’s runs will be very important IMO

It was definitely gymnastics. Unfortunately it’s well too documented who was sick and how it was spread. The kids were going to school but the incredibly efficient (of course I’m crackin wise) Williamsville Central School district pulled that plug and were just beginning to try and reopen. When it comes to the dance centers and gymnastics centers I can only speak to the one my daughter goes to 6 days a week and they are not following protocol at all. They are very complicit in what is going on. And thank you for the good thoughts, I will definitely keep updating.

Is it sad that I would take 3” of fluff?

Winter of 2020...a season of previous pictures

Wouldn’t a track NW at this point put us in the game?

Well that’s a great question! Because we are all probably exposed as well we are taking precautions to try and mitigate any further damage or exposure. We’re wearing masks in the house and have separated the child that has it and giving her own bathroom to use. It’s not ideal but like you stated there’s not a lot of space to utilize to isolate.

Still throws snow our way. Might not be from the system itself but energy from the initial SW that eventually gets overtaken by the stronger EC low

So the Covid virus has made it to my house finally...my middle child tested positive this morning as she has some slight symptoms and many of her gymnastics teammates have recently tested positive as well.

Lmao that was the request I had for you yesterday! I also can’t believe all the indices are PERFECT right now and we’re pitching a shutout!

I like this observation. There’s always an inverted trough that hangs back allowing moisture to be sent further west than depicted. I think because there are 2 LP one will hang by close enough to create this scenario

Seriously WNY is hexed.

The 18z went all jack Nicholson on us

About 6 give us a good shot...a few more give us some the rest nada...not done by a long shot

I still think we’re in play for next weeks storm...we’ve all said many, many times it’s not good to be in the bullseye this far out...if it looks this way Monday then I’ll be a bit more concerned

With lake enhancement off Ontario we still cash in a few to several inches in this scenario

I’m still thinking with a Greenland block these models are too far south, coupled with a piece of the polar vortex sliding south in that time I can’t wee this storm just racing out to the NE as fast as it shows.

Paging Buff Weather...can you please upload the CPC AO chart??? It’s solidly negative, and is forecast to go further negative and yet we have no cold...where the Eff is the cold?!?!?!

Well it is a week away...plenty of time

Yes. The models all have it...the euro is the grinch but has it east of most the CWA. I’m sending a big storm in that timeframe just hoping we all reap the rewards

That timeframe is really going to be I believe the change to a colder pattern. The GEFS has a Greenland block at that time and a nice ridge out west. The EPS has a similar look up top in Greenland but less of a ridge out west. Either way we are much colder and with several opportunities. Looking interesting at the very least.

No not a full phase but we would want the NS energy out front of the EC low do there would be a transfer and that low takes over leaving an inverted trough back over WNY

2 things of note for next week...the 17th and 18th has a clipper that looks a bit charged up and could be one of those 2-4” type snowfalls with some 6” enhancements in the NE lake belts...the second storm is different from the euro in one aspect, the GFS has NS energy not timing up with the low coming out of the gulf. The euro has that. Time will tell