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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Moderate snow transit and wehrle...sticking to everything but roads.
  2. Thinksnow18
    You know I think it was BW that said how our local Mets weren't that good anymore...well I have to agree even more. I just watched WIVB 4 in buffalo and for next tues-Wed he has 37 and 40 degrees...i have looked at 1 model that shows temps that warm during that timeframe next week...oh and FWIW the 6z GFS has WNY and CNY getting pounded by next Tuesdays storm.
  3. Thinksnow18
    Love this for next week's storm:
  4. Thinksnow18
    NWS has jumped on the LES train for the metro!!! They do say only 1 to 2 inches north of buffalo but the key is that the meso models are also agreeing on thus shift...starting to get excited
  5. Thinksnow18
    It appears to me by blowing up the pic that it's right over downtown...which inevitably means 5 or so miles north...
  6. Thinksnow18
    I'm shooting further...the lake event last December went 10 to 15 miles further north due to the warm lake waters and this is early November...im seeing a wide area of 2-4" from amherst to south buffalo where gradually we'll see 3 to 6 and then 4 to 8 as we get to hamburg o.o area.
  7. Thinksnow18
    The models ALWAYS undersell the warmer lakes and how the bend to the band can send lake snows further north than modeled...happens every year and every year it is forgotten about!!!
  8. Thinksnow18
    Ok fellow weenies...i know we've had our fair share of LES events in November but when is the last significant synoptic storm we've had in November??? I'm struggling to remember one!!!
  9. Thinksnow18
    Those totals seem way different than the other 2 models...well guess it's an early battle for model supremacy!!!
  10. Thinksnow18
    The heart of that band is Amherst to south buffalo with the Lackawanna south buffalo are with the bullseye...if this is realized 6 to 12 is likely with local amounts if up to 2 feet
  11. Thinksnow18
    I think what is important here is both models are getting into their sweet spot of forecasting...this shows up tomorrow and the snowblower will need to be run.
  12. Thinksnow18
    No matter!!! This is all gravy anyways!!! To be 3 weeks from met winter and 6 weeks from the winter solstice I'll take it!!! No one expects it to last but just the thrill being back is cool enough!
  13. Thinksnow18
    Stop it or I won't be able to sleep...for the next 3 nights!!!
  14. Thinksnow18
    Starting to think Tuesday night Wednesday will give the entire CWA the first accumulating snowfall of the young season. Looks to be a hybrid of Lake enhanced and synoptic transitioning to lake effect Wednesday night in the traditional snowbelts downwind of the lakes.
  15. Thinksnow18
    I try not to put much stock in the weather channel at all, let alone their 15 day outlook, but they do have Williamsville next week at 32 for a high next Wednesday and after this Friday not getting out of the 30's for daytime highs for 8 days...looking at all the data I think this is a bona fide chance we will all see our first accumulating snows as an area regardless of elevation by next week. Might be a coating or an inch but this pattern has that chance.
  16. Thinksnow18
    Still a nice appetizer for us snowlovers!!!
  17. Thinksnow18
    Something is definitely brewing 6 days from now. The morning runs of the GFS show a pretty decent early season snowstorm with a Miller b type scenario and transfer to the coast leaving the whole CWA cold and snowy. This is shaping up to be one interesting week of tracking.
  18. Thinksnow18
    That's all 3 models showing this pattern. Starting to look like at minimum we will see low to mid 30's for highs aven at lower elevations next weekend.
  19. Thinksnow18
  20. Thinksnow18
    I mean what do we even do with that??? That would only be 3 days before snowvember 14 so that is a legit threat/possibility. I'm going to need a bigger hot dog bun...
  21. Thinksnow18
    One thing is certain we will see our first 30 degree temps area wide next weekend and into early next week. This has the making of a possible event IF the right LP comes into play during that timeframe.
  22. Thinksnow18
    Just looking at GFS 6z from hour 216 to 240 would be a pretty long lasting event and temps not warming up for a couple days after...
  23. Thinksnow18
    I can't find one, maybe BW can get one? The SSW that appears on the CFS does have support in the ECMWF for the end of November. The question is does it propagate enough to get that low to elongate more towards N.A. and drive our first cold blast.
  24. Thinksnow18
    Congrats!!!
  25. Thinksnow18
    WIVB in buffalo put out their winter outlook and of the 4 Mets 2 said normal snowfall 2 below, the same 2 said average temps that said normal snowfall and the 2 that said below normal snowfall said above normal temps...not really sure what signals they're seeing that gives them those predictions...although they are just that after all.
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