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Thinksnow18

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    Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

    Forecast for airport

    Tonight
    Snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
    Thursday
    Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Southwest wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
    Thursday Night
    Snow, mainly before 4am, then a chance of snow showers after 4am. Low around 20. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible

    So 10-20” range.

    Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    While I NEVER feel comfortable about LES, seeing all 6 models pretty much lockstep right now does make me a bit more optimistic. And looking at the snowfall forecast map from the NWS the biggest difference is the stripes of snow north of Buffalo have widened by a few miles. The 8-12” now solidly gets near the 990 and the 4-8 gets all the way to Tonawanda by the 290. This is different from yesterday when those areas were more in the 2-4 category, and the 8-12” area was a cutoff right near my location. 

    • Like 1

    Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

    Idk what to think. It’s gotta be super tough to forecast right now. Models have shifted south but history tells us these things come north 5 miles so not sure. I think Mike’s map looks alright, maybe just shift everything north 5 miles. 

    6E76DE45-A5D7-4B4A-A6FB-1AE7EF3F9605.webp

    That’s my thought because he has warning snowfall in Chautauqua county. His heaviest is Boston hills. I made fun of him last year for this and out of the three Mets yesterday (Don, Todd and himself) he was the only one this south. Don even stated that he and Todd discussed this and after reading BW and his conversation with Tom Niziol I feel all three of them collaborated. 

    Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

    Pick your poison I guess?  Of course the RGEM had to flip a little more north...One half of Erie County is getting 4-8" and the other half 10-16".  NWS map looks fine!  Might have to spread the bullseye a few miles south but not much.  Pop the warnings for N Erie S Erie Genesee advisory for touching squares and let it rip!   010522.0Zruns.thumb.png.56e3069578ca7e6051875578d85e77c2.png

    Bottom 3 are very similar in location and amounts. That seems the logical outcome. HRRR is still drunk from the holidays…

    • Haha 1

    Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

    The NAM has a more WSW flow for entire duration of event. A brutal forecast with that low passing to SE and the shortwave to the NW. One of the more difficult LES forecast in awhile. Can understand why KBUF is holding off so long. The event starts tomorrow afternoon, less than 18 hours away.

    I thought Tom Niziol was using the NAM? In his estimation it kinda gets everyone from the Niagara/Erie Co border to Hamburg?

    Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    46 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

    I look at all the models. Best model for lake effect IMO is the RGEM, and when other guidance starts showing similar output regardless of the model it gives it more credence. Anything can happen but there’s no reason to ignore the trends which unfortunately for us don’t seem to be going in the right direction for a huge event. 

    Huge event? No. A foot? I’m not going to throw that away

    • Like 1

    Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

    Yeah no way. Maybe they wait until after tonight’s 00z runs to pull the trigger on warnings. I mean sure somewhere in Erie County is gonna get warning amounts so issuing a warning is almost a sure thing but where would you put the bullseye right now if you had to make a call. I agree with your map earlier and think the bullseye will be around WS somewhere but man I could see it being Amherst/Williamsville or Hamburg/OP. 

    Don just said he thinks they’ll call it in the next half hour. 

    Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 
    https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=B

Then a lake plume developed by 
early afternoon on a 260 flow and intensified by 3 pm or so as it 
rolled into the Buffalo Southtowns.
The band then lifted north a bit on a 255 flow during the early 
evening and remained pretty much locked in place for the next 30 
hours or so.  None of the parameters for lake effect were 
outstanding...but they were all quite favorable for a near perfect 
early season lake effect plume off Erie...850 mb temps of -11c...a 
fairly high equilibrium level/inversion (l0k ft.)...very good 
moisture fields below the inversion, good snow growth, no shear and 
moderate winds. There was the typical thunder and lightning we see 
during early season events but nothing extreme. The wind fields 
finally weakened with increasing shear as a surface ridge built in 
by Friday morning (3rd)...disrupting and dissipating the band.
Snowfall amounts were incredible within the band. A general 30 to 40 
inches fell in about a five mile strip which ran from Lackawanna and 
southeast Buffalo...east northeast across northern West Seneca, 
south Cheektowaga, Depew and Lancaster over to Alden. Amounts 
dropped off steadily to the south...with about a foot in Orchard 
Park and less further south. The real story was the northern 
gradient though. Amounts dropped from two feet to a dusting in just 
a 3 or 4 mile distance! This was evident along north-south roads 
like Transit and Harlem. For example, no measurable snow fell at 
Main and Harlem, but two feet at Walden and Harlem. The Buffalo 
Airport was right at the cutoff...with 2 inches at its northwest 
comer and a foot at its southeast comer! Further west...no snow fell 
in Buffalo at North St., 4 inches at City Hall and a foot at HSBC 
arena...probably the most remarkable gradient ever seen across the 
city!
This event had major impact...not only in the 300,000 or so people 
affected ...but from a major backup and shut down of the NYS Thruway 
from Exit 52 to 54...with hundreds stranded for almost 24 hours.
Activity off Lake Ontario...usually fairly similar to Erie...did not 
materialize nearly as well this time. There was a broad area of snow 
showers and heavier snow...but single banding never did develop. 
Shear was much greater and temperatures a bit milder and marginal.  
A general 5 to 8 inches fell across areas where the snow persisted 
longest...one just north of Watertown over to Harrisville ...

    I also just learned that 240 is more north Buffalo as 250 is Cheektowaga airport…that means the area from roughly the 990 south to Hamburg or just north slightly is fair game in a 240-250 vector 

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