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Thinksnow18

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    Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

    Watches just issued.  

    Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park,
and Springville
115 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 9 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 40 mph resulting in considerable
  blowing and drifting snow.

    First call map through 7 am Thursday

    Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

    12Z guidance looks like winds start SW and transition to a more WSW direction for majority of the event. 

    rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_66.png

     

    By that map alone I am leery. Look over lower Michigan and notice the winds over the southern tip of Lake Michigan out of the WSW and the northern part NNW…that doesn’t line up that way usually. Rotation alone would have a more WNW wind over southern Lake Michigan. Add in if the winds were WSW that far west our wind field would be closer to a true SW maybe even A SSW orientation. That looks off.

    • Confused 1

    Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

    Figures my covid isolation period ends Wednesday night so back to work Thursday morning.  No chasing for me on this one.

    My sons soccer team has been vivid ravaged, we were supposed to be in Ohio yesterday for a couple games and we didn’t go for other reasons, but learned this morning 5 of the 15 that went have tested positive. Good  thing we missed it.

    As for this event upcoming I think it will move around enough to make most in our WNY forum happy. 

    • Like 1

    Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

    Cejka, santos and mentkowski are the only half way decent ones.

    While I agree about Mentkowski, I feel the other 2 are married to their in-house model too often and won’t go by other guidance…I remember we had this exact talk last year during a similar event that their models were a good 15-20 miles too far south with placement of that band…and they did t deviate even while it was ripping up here. It constantly wanted to shift the band south seemingly by the hour. I feel that conservative nature hurts them. 

    Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

    To be fair the GFS and Rgem are the only ones that show the band up in the metro for a sustained period of time. I think it’s still too far out to be confident of anything right now. Another 24 hours from now we should have a better picture but I could see BUF getting 3” or 30” as it stands right now so still lots to figure out and we have the time to do it. Don’t think BUF pulls a watch until tomorrow morning after tonight’s model runs. Still 48-60 hours from the event start. 

    And the euro which is way off and correcting towards the GFS is what both 2 and 4 are showing…so they’re riding the euro right off a cliff. 

    Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

    Buffalo and 1 mile in each direction (but north) looks to be the only game in town. You guys better eat it up because long range looks pretty iffy again. 
    I should quit my bitching as we got another 1/2” last night off the lake for a total of 4” for the event. Right in line with the 3k amongst others that were lower end. 

    To be fair it’s about 5 miles north but the very heaviest accumulation will be airport or just south to Lancaster, Depew, Blasdell, Hamburg…I think the north areas are between 6-18” (N-S) with 24”+ in the areas I identified. 

    Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    So at this point we have 2 camps…the GFS which would give much of WNY south of Niagara Falls very happy Wednesday night into much of Thursday with heavy lake effect,but not much outside that unto the weekend for anyone else…the other camp is the Euro which would still give the same area LES but to much lesser degree, however would give all of upstate a pretty big snowfall of 6+” on Thursday night and Friday. As they say the devil is in the details.

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