Thinksnow18

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I lived in Orchard Park/Blasdell border for that event. I think my total was 28-30". I remember quite a bit of thunder and lightning with that event even though the rates were not too high. Could be similar to this one. 

That HRRR has my confidence a bit renewed. I never thought I’d get the jackpot, 1/100 times we do, but I still expected between 8-10”…as the day went on I was thinking more 4-6” but now I’m feeling a bit more confident in the higher number again.

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yep I remember that day vividly. We got stuck overnight at school. So much fun. The NWS never expected the band to stall over the Metro like it did. They also didn't expect the rates that were in that band. 

It was nuts…took my GMC Jimmy from my parents house in NT and got as far as the 198…there were cars stuck everywhere especially near Delaware park. I had 4 wheel drive and was fine but I felt for some of those drivers. 

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We know LES cant be predicted perfectly. I remember in Nov 2000 the forecast was 4-8" and we got 25" in like 6 hours. 

I remember that. I was coming home from Syracuse and remembered there was a warning for the northern part of the county but I believe Buffalo got smoked as the band just stalled over the city. 

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Latest HRRR run blast metro Buf

Man these models are all over the place!!! No wonder they still haven’t made a call yet 

34 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

In that pic my neighborhood is roughly in the area where Sheridan meets Main Street…then go to transit and it’s right there…solidly in the heaviest snows…

Just noticed an update to the AFD…now calling for 240-250 vector winds and plume could now last until Thursday night and maybe Friday as well. Said will move around a bit Thursday within those vector parameters 

7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Gotta ride the fringe if you wanna win!  I’m justttt far enough inland when you zoom in. Somewhere in here should be the jackpot zone. 

In that pic my neighborhood is roughly in the area where Sheridan meets Main Street…then go to transit and it’s right there…solidly in the heaviest snows…

1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

BTV has a nice hit with the northern edge hugging downtown south for majority of event.  QPF max around an inch through most of central Erie which would fit right into the 12-18” range with the 15/20 ratios.  Can’t believe you guys are getting bummed already.  

That northern band is pure northern Erie. The second band is southtowns 

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We take

Wednesday Night

Snow showers likely before 8pm, then snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after 10pm. Low around 25. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before noon. High near 29. Breezy, with a southwest wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday Night

Snow. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday

Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Looks like for 14221 Williamsville the point forecast is for 5-9” Wednesday night and Thursday heavy snow until 1pm. They seem to still be sticking with that forecast…in fact this morning it was 4-8” so it went up slightly. Love to see what they’re seeing 

44 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I don't love the look of those isobars as that coastal storm is definitely changing the pressure gradient up in our neck of the woods.  I still can't really figure out how we will get such a prolonged southwest wind event aside from thermal troughing because of the warm great lakes.  This setup definitely does not have the typical hallmarks of a long duration SW wind event.  We want a closed mid level low up over Hudson bay and no storm off the East Coast.  Could definitely see those bands ending up further South....

Lmao it figures…probably why they haven’t pulled the plug and issued a warning yet

Some time ago Don used a wind vector that showed how the lake bands were directed. Do any of you have this?

20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Channel 4 and 7 

What’s odd is none of those are a 240 vector. That’s more 250…I see a lot of biases with models that are inherently born jnto their design. For example, if you look at the GFS output for any total snowfall output Syracuse is always a huge number…that never comes a fraction of that amount. I think these models have algorithm flaws. 

37 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

They seem very confident in the band placement generally staying locked.  The issue seems to be the snowfall rates are not showing to be overall intense especially during the day Thursday.  Could translate to why the model precip output so far has not been that impressive.  Still like the map they have with a 12-18 bullseye near the metro.  Still shaping up to be a solid event!  Leaving some room for a little overachieving 

There’s one factor I’m surprised they haven’t mentioned and that’s when the entire lake is in play that can be more than sufficient to rev up the amounts. If that we’re to happen and it locks on the city? Woof…that would be insane

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That storm system getting closer to us reduces the LES impacts substantially creates sheer and less residence time.

Isn’t it odd the GFS and Euro completely swapped places??? Ok maybe not that weird…

52 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Channel 2 ,4, and 7 “in house” models are showing the band barely ever making it to Buffalo. Keeps it locked over the Southtowns the entire time from Me to at times grazing South Buffalo Steve. We know the bands always land up 5 miles or so north with these events when the lake is still so warm but it’s gonna be really close for north of the Airport I think. 

Weird right? I fought that battle yesterday and found out they’re gibberish. On that note the NWS is really locked in that 240 vector. But with lake effect you never know.

With the AFD this morning and how it reads I’m kinda shocked they didn’t pull the trigger in a lame snow warning. It’s extremely pin point and they give out a locked 240 wind for the entirety of the event and up to 9” overnight with 5-8 more on Thursday. Metro Buffalo out to corfu will be the heaviest accumulation, in their verbiage, with lightning up to 20 miles away from the lake. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Hey now. I think I'm one of the only ones here who ski, snowboard, and play ice hockey all winter. Not to mention winter hikes. What good is snow if you just look at it outside?

I used to do every one of those things…then I had kids…and then they got into sports…I no longer do those things…I live vicariously through you HairyLegBuffaloWeather!!!

Just now, tim123 said:

That was issues this morning

It’s definitely shifted north in expansion as well. This morning the 990 on the map didn’t have any snow or very little now it’s in the 8-12” area…and even places like NT in southern Niagara county are 2-4”

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's only through 7 pm too.

WIVb did a complete 180…the band never leaves the metro…wobbles a bit south on Thursday afternoon…so now that it mentioned to me earlier that the local stations do not  have in house models whose due they emulate?

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

New map rochester would get a advisory 

12-18…I take

1 minute ago, WNash said:

Yeah, I don’t think this is going to break the 20 year LES blockbuster drought for downtown through the north towns. I also have a bad feeling about winds in the first part of the storm - we have seen high winds and sheer break up bands in the city.

It’s not high winds. Not even advisory type winds. Just some gusts up to 40. That’s 10 to 20mph winds sustained. Nothing out of the ordinary. Plus why is everyone so negative about this event? Yes we’ve been burned, it’s the weather. Just look at the actual features as they are being uncovered and go from there. A 240 vector is dead center metro Buffalo, that’s the wind vector the NWS is seeing, not any of us. We’re speculating at best. 

4 minutes ago, tim123 said:

What is that band 2 miles wide. Lol. Nam only has it hangin out in buffalo for about 6 hours.

It also has it connecting the Lake Ontario band…winds won’t nearly be that strong. The NWS also says it’s leaning more heavily in the CMC at this juncture.

10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Got to admit, the GFS has been a lot better than the EURO for a while now. Remember the years the EURO was like some kind off infallible god? 

Ever since it went through the upgrade it has performed better this year for sure. 

29 minutes ago, tim123 said:

 

Think there may be a subtle trough over michigan

That’s what the GFS and the CMC are showing 

28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@Thinksnow18 waiting for KBUF updated forecast discussion

Lmao just read it…if correct I’ll sleep on Friday morning…reads 240 vector for the MAJORITY of the event!!! It gets even better…they’re expecting 20-1 ratios…combined with up to 40 mph gusts??? I can’t go there yet but some areas the B word might get thrown around…

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wednesday Night

Snow showers likely before 9pm, then snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Thursday Night

Snow. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

A little different on my point n click…heavy snow after 7pm new precipitation 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch! Thursday heavy snow until noon. 
if that were to come to fruition then that’s a solid 15 hours over the metro nearby northtowns…that would make my winter