Thinksnow18

49° at KBUF with moderate rain...its early, but this is beginning to get the juices flowing!

There are a Lot of moving parts to having the perfect setup for heavy LES. 2 of the keys in my opinion are relative humidity and unidirectional wind vectors (no shear). There have been many occasions where the wind vector was right, the cold air at 850 MB was more than 13° c difference between the lake temp and the air above however the air at all level was too dry. Subsequently we've also witnessed having the cold air aloft and the humidity but there's great amount a of shear at different levels above the lakes. That's what makes forecasting LES so difficult. And what makes following so fun.

Wait until Friday night when we will looking at a 50 degree variance from Tuesday's heat.

This link is crack for the weather enthusiasts on this forum, especially the snow hounds...productivity will be taking a backseat today...

I remember that because I was in 3rd grade at Ohio elementary in North Tonawanda and it snowed heavily for about 15 minutes...i was stoked, only to find out the 1/2" we got in southern Niagara paled I to comparison to what my grandparents received in kaisertown! It was my very first time being disappointed in the weather...the first of MANY!!!

I'm intrigued by the CPC outlook above. Much of the guidance I have looked at at this early juncture would point to an early onset to winter like last year and a milder second half. One of those drivers appears to be early PV disruptions tgat have already occurred as right now it is split...im also not seeing PAC jet really taking shape as of now either. I'm hopeful this winter is similar in snowfall to last year without all the quick thaws.

Where in the Northtowns are you? I'm about 3 miles north of the airport and the report for that timeframe was 65" I believe...if not at that number give or take an inch here or there I was right near that number. We had snowfall with the second LES event that lasted for almost 30 straight hours. It was not as epic as '85 or 2000 in that area but it was pretty classic from a longevity standpoint.

I will say having almost 60" in the last 2 week's was impressive!!! I'd like to think we see more solid chances of another good lake effect event for the metro/Northtowns again this year.

Was going to ask you this very question over the weekend the the system went down and I just forgot. So tomorrow a new thread? Looking forward to it...the incredible part is we could very well be chasing fantasy lake events in about 6 weeks time!!!

The operational GFS 6z (again grain of salt) is now showing in the long range a couple of shortwaves rolling out of Canada that *could* make the cool down were about to get late next week look mild in comparison. This type of cooler weather looks to have support amongst the ensembles into the middle of October.

That's an awfully strong signal to much more seasonable temps for the foreseeable timeframe after the 3rd of next month.

That line came through around 7am and it was a deluge for a good 15 minutes. Now for the post before this one...the cold shot late next week has good agreement on all ensembles and even after when temps recover they recover to normal which is low 60's. Of potentially greater significance is the the first forecasted (GFS so take with one grain of salt) minor PV disruption the second week of October. We know it can take 10 to 14 days to see the impacts in our area and to enhance it all the MJO towards the end of the month will be entering the 8, 1, 2 phases. This *could* set us up for our first true cold shot at the end od October...if not, it's at least becoming intersting again!

Forecasted temps on weather.com emulate the GFS for later next week...55 on Friday in buffalo and 56 Saturday...according to that autocast it does not warm up much above the low 60's or pretty much climo avg after that. Looks like if your a warm weather lover this is about it for any extended period save for the 2 or 3 day special.

I have to laugh. I was recently scanning the Mid-Atlantic forum and saw your post regarding the best place to live near DC if you want the most snow...i was going to say buffalo is not far away but one of their posters beat me to it! I will say this much, as a lifelong WNY resident of the burbs of Buffalo, getting the amount if lake effect we do is such a boost in the winter time IF you're a snow enthusiast like it appears you are. That forum, while very knowledgeable, is snarky and ready to jump off cliffs due to the lack of snowfall they receive. If you move their eventually do not expect good winters.

I've been monitoring since the late runs this morning, if verified next week's highs would be upper 50's lower elevations Friday and Saturday next weekend.

Funny I've never believed much of what Joe has said. He s a hype machine for his own agenda. His forecasts are all similar for nearly each upcoming winter with severe cold outbreaks, well above average snowfalls and several winter storms. His word is as solid as a bridge made of cream cheese.

There is always one in late September it seems! It was either last year or the year prior it hit 90 at New Era.

Enjoy! Because I like the look of the 3-4 week outlook!!!

That looks stunningly picturesque! Especially rainbow mountain. Now to the 15 day...signs have been showing a rather chilly October for a couple months now so the end of the month possibility does not surprise me at all...its the slam on the brake summer weather that will be most surprising...but I'll take it at that time!!!

It might be just the way the radar is picking it up, but the current light rain falling over much of the lake plains on the Niagara Frontier sure does resemble lake effect or lake enhanced off Georgian Bay and lake Huron

Agreed. Next 10 days or so look to have some below average to some above average and the rest around normal. All in all no 80 degree days on the horizon save for next Wednesday in the Genesee Valley region of WNY. I see 60's to mid 70's most days with nights in the 50's...perfect beginning to fall.

I was just going to comment that the sensible weather is going to be very active/interesting in the next 2 week's or so. First I have noticed the CPC did an about face in the 8 to 14 and has our area in the BN category which lines up with most extended models I've perused. Second is what's happening in the Caribbean with Dorian, damn good chance thuscstorm is cat 3 or better by labor day...and the third is Cohen has stated (and he's not the only one) that the initial PV is coming in very weak and kinda goes to what we have jokingly read from the farmers almanac about a polar coaster winter...but in the VERY early stages signs are pointing to a -NAO for the first time in years coupled with a weak La Nina and an EPO about to enter negative phase. I have the feeling the next few weeks heading into fall will bring about a lot of chatter to the upcoming winter

I'll use the Ouija board

So we have actually been BN for the year so far...wow spring really hampered the anomalies...the bigger question is how was there such a difference in temps just counties apart...for example Orleans and parts of eastern Niagara and western Monroe were 4 degrees colder on average than say eastern Allegheny County...the other area I question is the stripe of 0 to +1 that basically cuts upstate NY in half where otherwise from North of the southern tier the whole area would be uniform in BN temps.

Can I tell you that for about the last 4 year's that outlook has shown just about wall to wall AN temps every 3 months...its very warm biased...on the other hand the one the Weather Channel uses, an IBM co. (That makes me laugh a bit) has a very different outlook and shows BN temps in the same time frame...pick up dart and throw against the wall...