Thinksnow18

38 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

IF we could get that earlier band cranking then have it stall near BUF instead of moving further northward towards Southern Niagara/G.Island area then will be in business but if that thing is weak as the models are suggesting then forget about it lol second band that sweeps through looks decent though for a quick 2-4”.

If anything it looks more impressive than modeled. I think the models are having a tough time and the moisture over Michigan proves that. This was supposed to have little moisture to work with, as worded by the NWS just last night...obviously that is not the case.

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=CASET

Don't believe that was in the forecast for today...could be just in time to mess up the afternoon commute as we drop to near freezing temps.

There also appears to be quite a squall linev over southern Ontario.

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

They do look good. That will be here this afternoon, but likely across ski country as temps just get cold enough. 

What I'm a bit surprised about us there seems to be more moisture than previously thought...and the start time in the metro is much earlier than anticipated. Could be sneaky good.

Lake snow over Michigan looks super impressive. Looks like the totals have been bumped up to almost 5 inches on WIVB in-house model for tomorrow...grain of salt I know.

BW this one's for you...i watched 4 and 7 today for our local "mets" word on the lake effect. Both channels never have the Wednesday band further north than 20A. I laughed at the girl on 4 because she at least realized how asinine this was and still as I the lake snow would reach the metro and drop 2 to 5...the girl on 7? Clueless as they come saying nothing for the metro and 1 to 3 as far north as 20A...i want don Paul back...

Huh. Could be a Northtowns special. I remember that scenario a few times but one that sticks out the most was 2008 we picked up about 10" in Cheektowaga as the band was "swinging "through. Lake effect...you never know.

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Let the PAC flow through you. 

I haven't been overly impressed with the CPC the last 2 month's...the CPC touted November warm...wrong...they touted December warm and to this point wrong...there will be a lot of variability the next 2 eweeks but I'm not certain it equates to AN temps in the mean. 

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Does anyone else see the strange numbers here compared to the AFD itself? Map says 4 to 6 the AFD says 2 to 4...guess those 2 Mets didn't speak to each other.

Back to the weather...which looks to be as bad as the bills offense yesterday right through Christmas. I think what's most concerning to me is we aren't torching but with each storm system we appear to be on the warm side. There isn't a strong Bermuda high and I know there isn't a -NAO or -AO to help suppress these systems a but and keep them from cutting to our west

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Taken from the Bills forums but this is a good break down on Allen today, he was pretty bad.

"Allen was downright awful in the first half.  While Baltimore's defense got pressure at times and even caused a fumble, Allen still had plenty of throws with time and to guys who were open.  On the first three drives, he had a player open 20+ yards down field and missed him by almost 5+ yards each time.  On two of them, I got the impression that Allen was assuming the receiver was going to break a different way.  Regardless, two of them could have gone for touchdowns.  If he hit even one of them, it's a very different game.  In the second half, Allen had at least two plays where he held onto the ball for 5+ seconds and took a sack.  one of them knocked us out of Field Goal range today.  But like I said earlier, others contributed to his bad game with key drops.  Knox dropped a pass because he was already looking downfield, but we still got 3.  Singletary dropped one because he got excited about the open field ahead of him if he could beat one guy.  Beasley technically dropped a deep pass, that yes a millionaire receiver should catch, but was still not easy.  Overall, Allen hits just 10% more of his passes and we are either tied at the end or winning.  He played bad against a good defense and I think even he will tell you that.  but again, we had the ball with a chance to tie by the end."

That sack at the end of the game...We were 3rd and 3 and he took a sack that resulted in a 14 yard loss. You have 2 plays to get 3 yards...He HAS to get better at throwing the ball away.

Not to be the one that mentioned it to you earlier but Josh is a game manager. And what Th at means is he can make enough plays to help win a game but he needs a supporting cast to do it. If it weren't for this defense that plays lights out ball week in and week out, Josh would not be able to put the team on his back and throw for 380 and 4 tds to either win games or get into shoot outs with other qb's. He's the best we've had of a mediocre bunch but I believe this is what you'll get in his career.

GFS looks better towards the 20th timeframe onwards...in fact we might see a nice synoptic Christmas present.

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lake effect event went south pretty quick. every model run since a few days ago has gotten worse. The low to the east that keeps coming closer each run is messing it up.

It did give the metro and or just south into the southtowns the best chance on Wednesday for warning criteria snows.

15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Not much showing up on the European, outside of a little lake effect snow..

Several opportunities for rain. 

So it appears the earlier op runs were right...hopefully end of December and January are much better than this 

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NAM within range! Can see the shortwave diving in lower superior. 

At that position I'm confused why the winds wouldn't be backing to SW or even SSW...any thoughts?

That wintery pattern that was looking great yesterday??? Rain, lake effect, rain, rain snow mix, east coast rain storm (?) And front with you guessed it...rain. 

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I believe NWS updated this:

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY
MID WEEK...

An Arctic cold front will cross the region for Tuesday. As such,
cold air will rapidly pour into the area causing the ongoing rain
showers from Tuesday morning to abruptly transition over to snow
showers as we head into Tuesday afternoon.

Winds shifting to westerly at 850 mb through the night on Tuesday
into Wednesday will advect cold air into the region, causing the 850
mb temperature to drop to around minus 20C. In addition, multiple
parameters are stacking up, from good over-lake instability,
available moisture, and positioning of the upper and lower level
features suggesting for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario beginning Tuesday night continuing into most of the
day on Wednesday. As per usual, there is some uncertainty regarding
the exact positioning of the lake effect bands, however the lower
resolution models are suggesting winds to be generally
westerly/southwesterly for most of this time period before veering
northwest near the end of the event.

High pressure will pass through the region for Thursday into Friday,
lowering the chances for precipitation. Near the end of this period
winds will shift southwesterly advecting warm area into the region.

Love the West/Southwesterly wording...

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Michigan mentions the possible issues with the LES event well.

A cold front will blast through the area Monday night changing
the precipitation over from rain to snow rather quickly. The lake
effect snow machine will commence Monday night and continue
probably right into Thursday. The main time frame of concern for
lake effect snow will be Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Delta T`s in this time frame will be high to extreme in the 20C to
30C degree range. Moisture depth is decent, but it is a bit
lacking over time. Looking at the 850mb to 700mb layer which is
where lake effect events separate themselves from ok to
significant, the moisture is rather weak, less than 70 percent.
That said, lake effect will occur and we will turn the lakeshore
white again where the snow has melted. Of bigger concern will be
travel issues that develop as highs on Wednesday will hold in the
teens. When we get temperatures this cold and snow is occurring
(even if its the fine powdery light snow like this event will be)
we develop travel issues as salt is much less effective. People
will need to be aware that travel concerns will develop from
Tuesday into Wednesday across Western Lower Michigan

Remember young Jedi, moisture can be different in relatively close areas, there will also, no doubt, be multiple shortwave rounding down like pinwheel around the parent low. We will be ok I think.

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

As we get closer there are a few things to worry about that weren't there before. Dry air immediately following the passage of the low and shear due to quickly changing wind directions if that shortwave shown in GGEM happens the way it shows. Very early but no longer thinking blockbuster event, but definitely LES Warnings for everyone including northern Erie. 

For now im alright with that...we still have several weeks of opportunities after that before the lake begins to freeze.

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs doesn't look too hot with LES potential, not enough separation between the cutter and a northern stream disturbance dropping down..

Followed by a driving rain storm lol

yeah except that S/W will bring the lake snows into the metro for a time...on the flip side how do we get rain from a low pressure over the east coast??? That would be a snowstorm not rain storm.

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Dec 2001 and Dec 1995.  

I'll selfishly take the #1 analog for 2000 Alex

31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY
MID WEEK...

An arctic front will pass quickly through the area Tuesday allowing
cold air to surge into the region. Ongoing rain showers Tuesday
morning will transition over to snow showers through the afternoon
as the cold air deepens.

Arctic air will continue to pour into the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night with 850 mb temperatures dropping to near
minus 20C. This will allow for a strong lake response off both Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario during this time period. As is the usually the
case this far in advance, there remains some uncertainty with
respect to exact location of the lake snows, but current lower
resolution models suggesting a general west or west-southwest flow
will dominate for much of the time period before veering northwest
near the end of the event.

It continues to look like all parameters are in place from extreme
over-lake instability, available moisture and position of upper
level features for significant lake snows downwind of both Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario during the Tuesday night through at least the
Wednesday night time frame

If it's a west-southwest flow I would be ecstatic for that. S/W will get the band to the metro much easier than a general westerly flow. Might not get the highest amounts but I'll be in the game as they say

Noticed on the 18z GFS that the system we were drooling over on the 6z run is now a giant cutter...again...im hoping this isn't a precursor of last year's cold to mild to cold to mild save for the 2 week stretch in the second half of January last winter.

24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Already at 70% pops for Tues night into Weds

Hell at this far range I'll accept almost 50% @ KBUF

6 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Coming down quite hard at our house - watching the webcam from work.

Picked up about 3 very fluffy inches in east Williamsville. Pretty big surprise seeing none of that was forecast.