Thinksnow18

Just now, rochesterdave said:

Close to a phase. It runs over SC instead of FLA- improvement!?! Lol. Xmas Eve miracle? Obviously, lots needs to happen. It’s still on the table. Torch looking waaay more likely. 

Actually they explain there will not be a torch...in fact it's showing slightly AN temps just before and after Xmas before we get the PV to show up. 

12z coming in with the LP placement just south of PA so even further NW than 6z...but the precip shield on the northern flank still barely reaches lake Ontario shoreline, even though at the state line of NY and PA is mixing.

I think Wednesday is shaping up to have multiple streamers of pure fluff in many areas. Think 25 to 1 ratio type snows...

9 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Last minute 50 mile nw bump

 

Dave in Rochester had mentioned this and it might just come to fruition.

27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

If the models continued this NE it would be decent, instead they all trek east-ene off the coast..

I can already say that is further north than most are forecasting...might only be an inch or two more than forecast but when you're nickel and dimeing to an ok snowpack every bit helps

So I've been looking at the snow totals area wide...when is the last time all the stations have had more synoptic snowfall vs. mesoscale YTD? Or more impressively, when is the last time we haven't had any LES events to speak of? This is a weird start for sure.

Looks like a general 1 to 2 on the Niagara frontier for this southern slider...more as you head south east and east of Buffalo...the lake effect looks good for W/NW flow for advisory to low end warning uplslope flow areas. The rest of us just wait to end of December early Jan...

20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

GFS spitting out a decent snowfall. Advisory for many. 

00z GFS stayed same track as 18z. If the trend continues with the 6z we might have a better chance at the better lift across WNY and CNY.

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Wednesday Thursday look kinda fun. Squally.

Yes it looks like everyone will get a few inches to advisory levels of accumulating lake effect.

Its one run but the 18z GFS is NW of the other tracks and brings the low through WV and southern PA. This COULD be the beginning of the inevitable NW shift...hopefully

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

All the models going south for Tuesday. Pretty soon Syracuse is going to be out of it...again. This is getting old.

Yeah it's not looking good for anyone from WNY to central NY for Monday night Tuesday. Your area will have a good chance at W/NW lake effect Wed and Thursday. The Niagara Frontier? Could be weeks before anything substantial.

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Hamburg has a few inches when I left around 3-4

One inch of absolute muck...

Everything but main roads have caved in buffalo...im in the parking lot of Nichols high school waiting for my son to get done with soccer practice indoors. In the hour I've been here the grass us white but it's very slushy...parking lot slushy with areas of white...having a tough time accumulating well.

Moderate snow and sticking. Returns look impressive for the next few hours at least. Should snow until about 9pm or so...at this rate the 3 to 5 predicted looks plausible on the Niagara frontier 

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro for Tuesday..

Ratios may actually be a little higher than 10-1..

Does anyone see the ensembles? Im wondering if we're going to get the last minute 50 mile NW jog.

Snowing and sticking in buffalo by the zoo.

Snow and rain mix in Williamsville 35 degrees.

Sniw already over southern Ontario just west of buffalo...lots of moisture to go in thinking switch around 1 at lower levels at the heart of the precip rates

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nam kuchera shows ratios at 6/1-8/1 for majority of the event until the tail end..

Gonna need an inch liquid to see anything decent..

Looking like 1"-3" of slop for most unless u have some elevation. 

NWS still holding strong for 3 to 5 WNY lower elevations and 5 to 10 at hiher elevations...i also like the write up of moderate (thinking 4 to 7) for monday-Monday night.

I think areas of WNY will be upgraded to a WSW tomorrow...thinking the Chautauqua ridge, southern Erie County and Wyoming county...i think Buffalo out to Batavia and North to Rochester are looking at high end advisory when all is said and done.

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I'd say 3/4 of those are good hits for WNY.

43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Between both systems..

Right now I would take that and run.

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Today is pretty warm. High of 45 and sunny. It's beautiful out. 

It is gorgeous. I don't mind these days from time to time in the winter...just not more often than the cold snowy ones!!!

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I love the analogy retard .

Sorry it's a "hood" thing..

Giants just saved themselves an extra 12mill for next season..

What a ****ing joke that response was. It's that type of comment that shows how uneven the playing field is. 

6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve had the luckiest week of my life. Passed my MR Registry (medical imaging board), got an unexpected raise, had a great trip to Chicago.

If this thing happens, after jumping on it early, I’ll go buy a bunch of lottery tickets. 

Congrats! Great week indeed.