Thinksnow18

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Delta stop. The wind is destroying my vinyl fence panel by panel...I need it to get through spring. In the process of suing the guy who did it. It's not a fun process...If I don't win I have to come up with $4k to fix it this spring. 

Yeah honestly as a homeowner the two things I could do without weather wise are freezing rain and high wind events. Both have the potential for true catastrophic effects both physical to the house and personal to our safety.

8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

2.2” here at 8am. Seeing every p type possible in the last hour. Mainly light rain with some pellets mixed in but then we get a burst of some flakes then back to rain. Looks like it’s trying to organize better now...




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All graupel here at the office across from the airport. Band has definitely reintensified and looks good on radar. Probably also a bit of a southward dip the last frame...i don't think the band will really truly make it to areas north of the 90 split to Albany

Graupel-sleet mix in Cheektowaga by the airport. Very sharp cutoff to the accums last night. My house is between maple rd and Sheridan Dr in Williamsville and I posted earlier my 3/4" of taint but I drove not even one mile south towards wherle and young and the plows had to come out with close to 3". Interesting.

According to the NWS text it begins in WNY late Thursday night Friday dawn...and FWIW the euro is south along the PA/NY border which could give the area a bit more than forecasted as that is the most desired track for a ribbon of better lift.

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

New map. Overnight LES, the "band" was quite weak all night. Too warm. 

I'm guessing that includes the Clipper Thursday night Friday?

10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Measured 2.4” here. 0.41” water equivalent so it’s some straight up concrete! 

Measured about 3/4" of slush.

35 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

 

 

00z Euro is just as meh. 

I was thinking well at least theres the cold blast next week with multiple chances for LES and general snow events...the last 3 runs of the GFS says you have no soup for you...damn snow Nazi...

Well that was a dud.

15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Waiting game time now to see where and when that band sets up... Another good update from BUF at 915.


IR satellite imagery shows a break in this moisture,
so expect snow off Lake Erie to temporarily taper off late this
evening before a larger area of moisture arrives around
midnight.

The fact that snow with this initial round was fairly widespread helped
provide the forecast confidence to expand the Winter Weather
Advisory to include northern Erie county and the Buffalo metro
area. It`s also worth noting that the 00Z Buffalo sounding
confirmed model forecasts with the 850mb temperature -6C. This
will be a wet snow, and snow amounts will vary by location.

In terms of band location, a snow band will re-develop after
midnight and focus roughly from downtown Buffalo to the airport
through daybreak.

A well defined band should be in
place across the Buffalo metro by the morning rush hour.
Roadways will be slick at many locations for the morning
commute.


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Appears metro northeast will be under the gun after 2 or 3am. I'm still not ruling out 6 or 8 inches in the areas that are under most stationary part of the band. Think Clarence, east Amherst, east Williamsville, Lancaster.

18 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Anyone else having vivid flashbacks to October 2006???

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
604 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

NYZ010-040900-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0042.191204T0000Z-191205T1800Z/
Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
604 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.



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No but it is telling me that the local Mets really do not have a handle on our weather. Us weenies saw these model outputs more than 24 hours ago and BW mentioned this threat 72 hours ago! 

16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

No it’s right on schedule! It wasn’t even suppose to be into the metro until around 8 and then drift north through midnight before heading back south. Snow is starting here in South Buffalo!!!


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Huh. They thought it would start out as rain and the mix wouldn't happen until midnight...

26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Light snow has started here. 

It appears to have set up further south than forecast...that band was forecasted for the Northtowns...oh well there's thursday night and next week starting Wednesday to look forward to.

That does appear to be some kind of a lake response...but I am concerned that there is absolutely no lake response over lake Michigan. Usually it's a good indicator.

Yeah I suppose that's correct but I'm still having a hard time with the diurnal part of this. Plus the lake water isn't especially warm either to make an impact.

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That last one has 10-14" at 1:10 across southtowns. 

Incredibly the data you just showed with the possibility of 4" or more goes against every model you showed and emulates the NWS forecast. It begs an honest question, what models are they using?

Local Mets are a range of 1-2" in metro to 3 to 4" metro overnight.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's what happened in Oct of 06, the heavy stuff fell overnight. That's above my knowledge level. But nearly every high res model output is putting Advs/Warning level type snows.

Agreed. We're missing something evidently.

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Rain/Wet snow according to NWS. Unless the rates can get intense enough to cool the column enough.

But that would only matter diurnally, no? The timestamp of the axis of heavy snow is from 11pm to 5am. I would think it would be easier to cool the column if needed to get all snow. 

8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Typical event setting up..

Just hope the band stays in tact lol

Plus marginal surface temps, we'll see in 2 days I guess..

It's amazing to me that all these models want to give the buffalo metro area anywhere between 3 and 6 inches tomorrow night and Wednesday yet the local Mets and NWS buf say nothing more than a dusting to an inch with marginal temps during the event...

14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks for the response.

Looks like we have some more opportunities coming up this week to pick up some more snow. Then a punch of warm air early next week...then perhaps more snow showers next week.

Yes...you will or should I say the traditional snowbelts of upstate NY...the rest of us get to pay the dealer from Vegas vacation 50 bucks to go back into the alley and get kicked in the nuts.

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Light-Mod snow here, sticking to grass, but it's too wet to stick to ground. 

It is kinda interesting how the radar has blossomed in coverage the past few hours on the Niagara Frontier...3 degrees colder and we may have gotten a surprise.

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Concrete allows for a good pack. That will likely last at least a few weeks. Would allow me to go cross country skiing, I'm all about it. 

You think? Isn't it supposed to be in the 40's a few times in the next 10 days? Plus the ground really hasn't frozen up but you might be right.

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I said the AFC. Allen doesn't really have any great weapons. Beasley is a wr3, Brown a wr2. We don't have that Julio, Adams, Green, etc.. WR1. He doesn't have a great TE either and the RB are average. No real dynamic speed or power rusher. He's doing quite a bit with average players. 

I think alot of it is the RPO's that daboll dials up. It was said during the game on Thanksgiving that the bills are not a traditional run team say like the Titans or Pittsburgh is. That helps Josh a lot with defenses having to stay honest and play any possibility, and around, jet sweeps, qb keeper...that offense keeps you guessing.

Just now, CNY_WX said:

8.3 inches of snow and 1.16 inches of LE for the 24 hours ending at 7 AM gives a ratio of 7.16:1.

Damn that's basically concrete. Im actually kinda glad we didn't get that...