Thinksnow18

Lol you can tell the weather is slow right now..

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The Bills are the 2nd best team in the AFC, the Pats looked terrible last night. The Bills destroyed Dallas in Dallas on thanksgiving. Ravens are the best team in the NFL. This week is HUGE. If we beat the Ravens at home we control our own destiny for top AFC team. Allen is legit. 

Slow down. Allen is just ok at this point. The next 3 games will show me a lot about his abilities. I watched the fins game yesterday while switching between the ravens-niners game and when Josh allen can do what ryan Fitzpatrick is doing with really no talent around him making mediocre talent better then I'll look at him differently. I've always laughed at the notion that we needed to surround our quarterback, whoever it was/is with better talent tells me that without better players he wouldn't be successful. The greats, brees, Manning (not Eli), Rodgers, rivers, Brady, Wilson, they make everyone else around them better not the other way around. Those players have had multiple receivers, running backs, tight ends, coordinators etc...and im not a hater just a realist. I think josh is good but not great. Great is reserved for actual greatness over many years of success and managing many scenarios successfully. Then and then you'll know if he's great. And no they are not better than Frisco, new Orleans, Seattle or still the pats...until they beat them when it matters.

43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

1-2 degs colder and we would be talking Advs Weds for SW flow lake enhancement.

Yeah that shipped sailed...nothing more than a wet snow scenario WITH at most an inch in metro...at this point im kinda rooting for the next few weeks to be quiet, normal temps on average and then get smoked by an LES event lasting several days...now if I only had a coin for the wishing well...

Westerly Wx I would call it fake snow in a can or the snow you'd see on a fake tree. Congrats to everyone east of Batavia...meanwhile it looks like WNY won't be getting much over the next 10 to 15 days.

43 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Major icing going on in BUF right now and all the NWS has us for is WWA wtf lol? What are their criteria for ice storm warning?

Airplane off the taxiway at KBUF

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

24 degrees and rain here just outside of buffalo. Nice glaze forming.

Yeah this poses a huge problem...just ran to the grocery store and I would've been far better off taking the hockey skates...everything and I mean everything is iced up. This could get bad for areas buffalo north.

17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Storm Vista does include sleet

 

Hey that even gives far WNY a few inches...not bad I suppose...

Just now, rochesterdave said:

ICON putting the smack down on Syracuse

This system might get a sloppy 2 to 4 in buffalo yet.

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Looking much better from central NY into NE, still lots of uncertainty with this one. Bills are 9-3, best Thanksgiving of all time! 

I think WNY is going to be pretty well shut out of anything substantial for the next 2 week's at least. Here's to hoping we get hit just before Christmas.

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

EPS will start a new thread Dec 1st. Nothing really happening next few days aside from high winds. 

Thats a nice look and would be perfect if there was a cutoff low just south of hudson bay

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Some nice blocking on GEFS 

I'm not sold yet. Models are having a tough time in the medium range.

For WNY on to the next one

31 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Those look pretty good for CNY overall, much better than the individual 12Z op GFS panels i just looked at.  Which Ensemble member is the op run?

Back to a swing and a miss for all of WNY

So after seeing the 0z Euro and the 6z GFS both make this storm look like a a passing flurry, suddenly the next 10 days after also look rather benign. Not warm, not cold, drab and boring. 

3 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Lmao the entire state except for the Niagara Frontier of WNY...

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I still can’t believe the primary goes south enough to allow redevelopment over south jersey. I still say it cuts but Think Snow might have the win. We certainly have blocking. But do we have enough HP in Canada to keep the bowling ball. 

I was just reading another met on another forum who discusses the possibility of the LP going even further south due to the strong HP just to the north. It isn't as great as cutter with significant LES possibilities, but it beats a long period of mixing and just general junk.

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Most of the snow is from the secondary as the primary withers away..

Yeah that bodes very well from the finger lakes eastward. 

39 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gefs

Thats not a lot of frozen for WNY 

https://weather-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/weather.com/amp/storms/winter/news/2019-11-12-cold-november-correlated-with-cold-december-january-february-winter?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D#aoh=15747122963114&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fweather.com%2Fstorms%2Fwinter%2Fnews%2F2019-11-12-cold-november-correlated-with-cold-december-january-february-winter

35 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Couldn’t agree more. This has cutter all over it. Still up in the air about LES in BUF and Tug. You guys actually don’t want a transfer- obviously. I think that’s still a good possibility. 

A) the link I sent CNY well documents he's wrong about cold, snowy November's...2) we are all speculating about the upcoming storm and frankly there is a better chance of the "bowling ball" happening due to the -EPO and cold air close by in Canada than a cutter. The high pressure would string out a warm front across the area with the well back some 2 or 3 hundred miles to the west and it's forward motion would be easterly until a transfer to the coast Miller b style, leaving an inverted trough back towards our CWA and a conveyor for moisture. This is also speculation but the link regarding cold November's is not.

17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Just in time to crush Boston..

Yeah that particular run was not a good one...just another piece to the puzzle

28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Most of the members keep us mixed or mostly snow and a good deal on the backside of the low.

If the above scenarios play out we could see a front end snow that quickly changes to rain and then goes to all snow as the secondary takes over and we are left witn a good dose of wraparound moisture pouring over the lakes and a good accumulating snowfall. I think WNY does best in these scenarios

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Bring out the shorts!

Well just like the LES was taken away so is the above furnace blast on the 6Z GFS...in fact gives us quite a few chances for snow/les/enhanced right through the end of its run...the models have been crazier than jack Nicholson in the shining.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This isn't good. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

I think the CPC has been out to lunch with a warm bias this fall...on Oct 17th their November outlook was AN for us...howd that work out? Again for December they are predicting the same...im not taking that as their only driver and running with it.