Thinksnow18

19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

All ENS look really warm throughout entire USA aside from the NE from Dec 19-25. Hopefully its brief.

Yet somehow it's not reflecting in the ops runs...nor forecast temps.

12z GFS fresh out...shows the same transformation all the other models are...i believe you're going to see a very different write up around 4pm today from the NWS

12 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Damm the 3k nam looks sweet!!

 

Look even "in-house" models are showing this change over tomorrow afternoon to early evening...no one wants to bite but the message is clearly showing heavy rates of snow at that time for a good 4 to 6 hours.

46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Tues event quite marginal as well.. Granted were only talking about a few inches..

 

That is a 3 to 6 Or 4 to 7 in WNY. That's a perfect deformation zone right over WNY. Plus most of that is at night away from diurnal effects

I've begun to notice a trend that I think we're all going to like. The indices have not looked good recently and we've managed to stay average to slightly below average. The mid and long range has wanted to warm us up it seems 7 to 10 days out for about the last 2 week's. That signal is gone again. It now appears December will finish colder than normal with several opportunities for snow via synoptic and mesoscale. The Euro mid range was showing a PV split towards the Christmas time frame which would only enhance our chances going forward. Bottom line is when the indices do begin to go in the direction we like and we get an inevitable beat down of the PV I think January and February could be special.

4 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro came north for Tuesday, gfs went south..

Yes they have come to a better consensus on a track. It appears it will be a track through Pennsylvania which may have the southern tier mix while the low goes by. All in all looking like a 3 to 5 for all...and the signal for LES looks good like BW pointed out. 

11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Look at the wind direction, out of the NW and still rain .Track 100 miles to the east. Give me a break lol Must be no cold air in Canada..

However that's not true. There is plenty of cold air I'm just really wondering why it's not being tapped.

The NWS is not at all impressed with Saturday-Sunday especially at lower elevations..and they consider Monday night-Tues an open wave...huh.

12 minutes ago, vortmax said:

That will change by tomorrow night.

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The longest lake effect band in history..

You can't see it but it's actually circling the globe and re-intensifying back over lake superior...

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro still weak and south for Tuesday. 

But definitely came further NW with the precip shield...i believe yesterday's 12z was complete whiff SE...also it shows a shortwave (Alberta clipper) for Wednesday that would bring some lake snows NE of the lakes for a bit. Too early for anything worthy, however if this run is like the 00z there were several Clippers giving is chances.

15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

What a bomb on the gfs lol

Gets down to 949mb..

Been watching this one from afar haha

Comes through here much weaker and as all snow...in fact I figure the GFS will come around on Monday night-Tuesday's little storm and a lot if what's being forecast looks to be white up until Christmas. Quite the change from about 1 week ago when it was cutter after cutter after cutter.

8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Thermos aren’t too far off. 

I think as we hit tomorrow this will become a little more clear. 

20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The models do great with placement but they still struggle with p-type. You get a storm, driving over 1” qpf, on the cusp, ya better stay alert. Elevation thing probably. But the big players are there. 

If you look at the models the Canadian high pressure is over Minnesota, not too far to our west. Once the winds switch to NW later Saturday I can see a more powerful low being able to tap into that airmass and changing every thing to snow

31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GEFS

If that were to hold serve then we would all mix for a period but snow accums could be significant with that or just SE of that line.

The 00z high res euro is still maintaining its southern trajectory, but did nudge ever so slightly NW from the 12z yesterday.

3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Damn, as you obviously know that street ends (or starts) at doebler drive.  Pretty crazy, my brother graduated in 94 so you may have known him.  

Lmao more than likely! 

6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Spent the first 18 years of my life on Doebler Drive.  It was a very nice town to grow up in, aside from the lack of lake effect snow, lol.

grew up on Wurlitzer drive. Graduated in 93

3 minutes ago, WNash said:

This was the storm. It was quite a bit worse than I thought in North Buffalo/Northtowns.

 

There was a huge cutoff NW of the airport. It really missed the area hit hardest in November 2000 and October 2006.

 

 …ERIE COUNTY…

     Colden 2.4 ENE           23.5
     Boston 2.5 NE            22.3
       Colden 1 W             21.6
   North Boston 4 ESE         21.3
    Buffalo Airport           20.0
   Cheektowaga 2.7 NE         20.0
     Boston 1.5 NE            18.8
  East Aurora 2.7 SSE         18.6
      Eden 1.4 SSE            16.7
          Wales               16.6
    West Seneca 0.4 E         15.5
  East Aurora 0.1 ENE         15.1
   West Seneca 2.3 NW         15.0
   Williamsville 2.7 E        15.0
Clarence Center 0.2 ESE       14.5
      Elma 2.7 WSW            14.2
  West Seneca 1.6 WNW         13.7
    Springville 5 NE          13.7
      Buffalo 3 SE            13.5
  East Aurora 1.0 ESE         13.5
    Hamburg 0.4 WSW           13.2
   Elma Center 0.7 SE         12.8
     Marilla 3 SSW            12.2
 Clarence Center 0.9 N        10.5
    Glenwood 1.5 SE           10.0
      Akron 0.9 NE             9.6
   Cheektowaga 2.4 NW          8.0
    Kenmore 0.3 ESE            7.5
  East Aurora 3.4 NNE          7.5
    Blasdell 1.5 SSW           5.6
     Kenmore 0.8 NW            3.3
    Tonawanda 3.1 NE           3.0
    Amherst 5.4 NNE            1.9
   Tonawanda 1.5 NNE           1.0

I will fight that Williamsville number all day long...if you look at the brown spot right by the and just north of the 90 is east Williamsville...and that is 18 to 24 inches.

20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro over the next 6 days..

Looks good for the higher elevations of the tug for Saturday night-sunday time frame, plus whatever it has for today..

Early next week system is a miss just to the SE which majority of the models show at the moment..

Yes unfortunately the models are not in our favor over the next 2 week's.

46 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Amen, I grew up in North Tonawanda.  It was brutal always being just a handful of miles away from pure insanity.  The Christmas week storm from 2001 was particularly rough to watch from the side lines (and we even got 2 feet or so, just nowhere near what Buffalo got).  Fortunately, for most people thats a huge selling point to living in the North Towns, most people hate snow.  

Where'd you grow up in NT?

1 minute ago, WNash said:

The sun has come out at north campus. It took about 30 mins for the band to transit. There was a lot of wind, so it's hard to eyeball amounts, but it looks not more than an inch. So three inches for the whole event... in line with Buffalo NWS's low-end 10% probability. It's hard as hell to get sustained LES from downtown to the north.

We had a good hit this past January when we received 65" at the Airport and almost 30" during the one event...( yes KBUF was just under 2 feet but I'm sticking by my measurement) so it's possible and as BW mentioned earlier all models look good for some more LES next week. 

No I'm stoked trust me. I wish this was stuck for 5 hours right where it's at.

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Elm Street

Thats messed up

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Niagara falls?