Thinksnow18

The one thing about this whole thing that gives me pause is the "Bermuda high". It is on the east coast until Thursday then goes off shore and quickly becomes a large and powerful high in 48 hours? Meanwhile a 1035 or 1040 established Canadian high will just step aside? That last run of the EURO has the high in the right postion but allows the low (997 btw) to go far enough north? Ehhhh...

22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Spread is West..

I think the 1040 Arctic high wins this one. This one will see some incredible sharp cutoffs to precip types 

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Really close to Rochester proper..

 

Just from the proximity to the airport they measured 4" last hour...

11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Not much change with the gfs, a little south and closer to a snow storm lol

That scenario is getting closer to better

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That track would be a low impact event. 

It's a wonky run though...the very next panel takes the low to the west of us straight across NY State to Albany...tossing...

24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I'd rather bump those south lol

 

I think BW is right...i believe that the Canadian high wins out and suppression will put the access of heavy snow over WNY

25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wow that would be devastating

It's all about that Canadian high...if it's strong and above superior we get a huge ice storm or snow storm...

14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gefs with members..

I imagine plenty of rainers in there..

The LP looks to be western PA...on that VERY early placement the Niagara Frontier would get smoked and Syracuse would be a sleet storm.

43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Insane amount of gulf moisture. Analogs show the signal too. It just started showing up, so will be interesting to see what next few days look like in modeling. 

Thats a lot of precip from 18z Saturday to 9z Sunday and much if that is frozen in one form or another.

27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Hopefully we can get a little more snow and a little less ice lol

Agreed. No one wants to pull out the pick axe to chisel off their car...

Wow this storm is 5 days away but us getting some legs even on the local channels...chaps Cejka just showed snow next Sunday high 23...

Never mind...i see I was late to the party...however, 6z still has the same scenario...generator sale???

You think that's a lot of snow? Look at the 00z GOOFUS...lmao

23 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Could be...made for a nice walk with fat flakes pouring down. Probably going to hit 3” out of this. We’ll take it and run in this pattern. 

Currently at 30 degrees and moderate snow in Williamsville 2.1" so far...3 inches outside chance at 4...could be the highest we see for a couple weeks.

18 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Your example of tannehill is exactly why we should stick with Allen. Allen is still developing and needs a better supporting cast. Look what happened when Tannehill got that. 

Ifvthats the case then shouldn't that have held true for Mariota? He had the same team tannehil walked into and tannehil took that team to a different level. If you need more help around you then you aren't the franchise. Watson was without his version of brown yesterday and he still was 20 of 25 for 249 and a td...it didn't matter that Hopkins had 0 yards heading into the 3rd Watson still found a way to beat arguably the league's best corner to get him the ball...Allen against the playoff teams this year was 1 and 6 and his numbers were very ugly. My point is a lot if other qb's could have gotten us to 10 and 6 this year. 

8 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

The dude had almost 400 total yards and a TD.... stop putting all the blame on Allen. Did you not see the collapse by the defense in the entire 2nd half? Josh played far from perfect and made some boneheaded plays but you people criticizing him like he’s EJ Manuel is ridiculous. Dude gives it his all each and every game and yes sometimes it can cost us (that fumble that led to the HOU FG) but I’d take him over 75% of the QB out there right now. He needs a few more pieces around him next year and I guarantee Josh  will be much better.

If you understand football you'd realise the offense has to have gimmick plays, RPO's and a lot of jet sweeps and the like to be even remotely effective...and per the 75%??? Ryan tannehil just walked into Foxboro and won. If you think for a moment that this team wouldn't have been 10 and 6 or better with 75% or more of the Qb's in this league you're just not being honest. With this D they sport I could see this team being a true super bowl contender with a lot of other qbs in the league. 

1 hour ago, Geez150 said:

That game was just like our winter. Started out great and then took a big dump. Allen is my guy but come on man...

Sorry Allen is not the answer. He's too inconsistent and is a much better football player than QB.

46 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The old squeeze play. 

I think that storm on the GFS in a week offers our best hope.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I can see that but nothing until around the 20th at least. Similar to last year? We're going to have a 40 degree lake in late January. 

Looks like last year the pattern changed mid month around the 15th and we had that big storm Jan 19th/20th and the 2 big LES events in Late Jan. 

So yes similar. And in that timeframe we received 65" not saying it will all line up exactly but that 2 weeks of January also saved us. You just said it, 40 degree lake will serve for many opportunities IF the cold air comes and stays.. It also would be about 5 weeks this pattern would be in place and usually they last 4to 6 weeks.

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think it's going to be double digits. Our overnight lows have been really warm. Our average low is supposed to be in the teens, we aren't seeing that for awhile. 

I've been following some of the guys on the mid Atlantic site and other Mets who believe that there is a Scandinavia Ridge by day 10 which will begin to perturb and shift the PV into Hudson Bay in the next 15 days...that matches up very well with all three ensembles for that timeframe...keep the faith 

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Normally, this would be a banging storm track with plenty of cold and lake enhancement. Not this January. 

Welcome to the new norm...we have officially become the mid Atlantic region...we pray for Perfect conditions and hold on to op runs like they're meteorlogical gospel only to realize they're a boy band playing in purgatory. It needs the ****ing snow...

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A friend of mine from the gym is in Willow Alaska right now. Says its high in the negative single digits lows in -20s. 

Servo don't need that...but low 20's for highs would do perfect for the dendritic snow growth zone...and keep everything that falls powder...

Im going out to mow the lawn just spite my own nose...

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Little bit of a late capture on the Canadian. 

I feel everything is going towards the euro.