Thinksnow18

9 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Even the coarse resolution of the GFS shows over 25” , just showing that the pattern is perfect for a long duration lake effect event. 

So how exactly do we fast forward this opportunity? Sadly I know this will shift and disappear about 8 times between now and range (Thanksgiving) but as BW and you both have discussed here this pattern looks primed to be potentially a big event.

So if BW or Westerly or any WNY like to paste the time frame on the 6z GFS from say hour 216 to the end of the run, I would be ok with that...

8 minutes ago, cny rider said:

I've lived in Amherst, and i have lived in Albany.

Where are you getting that 5 degree figure from?

They seemed pretty similar to me.

Where I live now, at 1650 feet in Otsego County is definitely colder than both those places.

 

 

If you use Albany as a starting point and head east and south the temps definitely get milder. I agree Albany and Amherst are similar but it doesnt take too long to find average warmer temps away from that area

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Todays average High/Low is 45/32. Still need a pretty cold airmass to get any appreciable snow. By Dec 4th the average is 39/27. 

I love that our climo vs areas towards the east end of NY (think Albany) and towards the coast is about 5 degrees on average lower which gives us so many more opportunities for smow either synoptically or meso. BN starting from mid December on usually puts us below freezing and gives us frozen more often than not.

44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Teles going in right direction, will make a new post this weekend

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

The 2 big drivers in my unprofessional opinion are the PNA trending towards positive by 1st week of December and the EPO trending moderately negative at the same time. If the 2 happen similarly it may allow the cold air to dump out west them move east and become established.

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Maybe the tug?

I doubt Carol receives 150" of synoptic per year lol Which would be about 1/2 her annual snowfall..(288" to be exact)..

She lives at 1500 feet asl not 4000 ..

 

I would agree with that...theres a pretty well known spotter, oddly also named Carol, that lives on the Chautauqua Ridge SW of buffalo and reports about 240" per year...i also doubt more than 120" are from synoptic. 

Looks like the 6z GOOFUS wants to push the cold air back into the second week of December...

Looks like the EPS is following suit for the early December timeframe if a huge cold dump and pattern change.

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

It's hard for me to buy the ukmet, trust me I wish I could lol

It misses us completely with the synoptic system but nails us with lake effect precip on a Westerly flow..

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 

I have to say that without a pig ridge in the Atlantic I'm kinda surprised how much this cuts on most models...i do like the ebd of the GFS run though...

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From Nov. 2014 discussion

From a climatological perspective, the storm had signs of an 
unprecedented event early on, with historical analogs and 
climatological ensembles pointing to a rare if ever seen event over 
a 30 year climatology.   500 mb temperatures eventually dropped to 
-42C on the KBUF sounding Tuesday evening.  With lake temperatures 
around 9C, lake induced equilibrium levels exceeded the 500mb 
temperature and maxed out near 20000'.  Further up in the 
atmospheric column, the 200mb heights were lower than anything in 
recent memory.  The more traditional 850mb temperature value of -15C 
was also on the lower edge of the climatological spectrum.  From 
pattern recognition, this was a high confidence event...with "feet" 
of snow in the forecast over four days in advance.  Data from the 
Saint Louis University CIPS (Cooperative Institute for Precipitation 
Systems) showed several analogs that matched 24 hour record snow 
events for Buffalo.

Well we won't need to get it that cold as it would be closer to December and it "Appears" it would be growing colder with time

31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I guess its something to watch while u guys worry about December..

 

Thats a great look, and it's this week as well not 10 days away...definitely worth watching

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-11-12-cold-november-correlated-with-cold-december-january-february-winter

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

This pattern is the dumps. If it’s followed by a warm December it’s gonna be tough. 

I don't see a wall to wall AN pattern shaping up for December...i think lots of ups and downs where we get chances for storms but it may have to time out right. I think there will be plenty of cold days but the average will be slightly AN

43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Full snow cover here too since the storm but this pattern is 

Looking like a warm December again too? 

Yes still full snow cover in Williamsville as well...alot of uncertainty regarding December, chatter both ways, but most saying a mild start with a colder second half. If there really is perturbing of the PV like GFS and EPS is showing at months and that would make sense that towards weeks 3 and 4 we see a pattern shift.

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't think we get too far below normal during that timeframe as the PV is on the other side of the globe. But you don't need really cold temperatures in late Nov to get snow around here. 

No and that is a great look. Normal high at the end of November is 38 so it stands to reckon what falls could be snow.

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

With no cold high, might be rain/mix. Something to track at least. 

True but with the second one, at least in that scenario on this run, the 528 line is very near by. Plus if it's dynamic enough that could be enough to produce its iwn cold air. Definitely something to watch.

20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Whole week to figure this one out..

 

The GFS is just as close...and it now appears enough cold air will be around that if it wraps up tight enough we could see a hybrid of lake enhancement and synoptic from Ontario 

So is the HRRR on to something??? The lake effect/enhancement with the S/W looks impressive...will the dynamics hold here??? Thousand dollar question

Hey anyone see the radar returns just to our west over the thumb and western great lakes? Is that tomorrow's system already? Lots of blossoming returns and imbedded heavy snow with lake enhancement...if this arrives earlier say overnight we might catch lightning in a bottle NE of Lake Erie...

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Something to watch but I think it's a little bit too warm. I'd also favor Buffalo north with this one. 

If it got cranking enough, which I doubt based on the current dynamics, it COULD overcome the marginal temps and become all snow while dynamically cooling the column.

24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Looking out beyond this period into the middle to latter portions
of next week...the medium range guidance packages have diverged
considerably over the last 24 hours...which for the time being
results in at least somewhat lower confidence in the return to
milder temperatures persisting beyond the end of this period.

 

Thank you Wolfie!!! Every time I try to attach something it says file too big. 

4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I woke up to 3 or 4 inches of super fluff this morning as that band shifted West late last night.  However this snow cannot be compared to the storm snow, this had to be 25:1 type stuff while the storm was closer to 8:1.    Really no comparison. But damn it looked beautiful out there.  

As a side note, I'm afraid we've set the bar really high early in the season.  It could truthfully be almost 2 months before we hit another wintry stretch like this.  Or it could literally not be this cold and snowy again for the remainder of the winter.  This is fairly unprecedented stuff here.  

Damn it im trying to copy, paste do whatever it takes but there are some real signs of a rather large PV disruption being forecast by the EPS and now the GEFS by Thanksgiving...also if you look at the forecasts for temps ten days out they have trended colder and the warm up appears gone...best temps I saw were next week's mind thru thursd and it was low 40's at best and then back to the 30's towards Thanksgiving...im really liking what im seeing here.

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Alright I think ready for some 60s and sun before the next snowstorm 

Not seeing it unfortunately!!! 40's???

So I'm beginning to do see a pattern or trend here I think we are going to love this winter. Guidance for the last few days showed a pretty decent warm up in the long range to almost mid to late November norms right up to Thanksgiving week. Well that idea has gone back a step and the models are having a tough time keeping it milder. This reminds me of the winter of '11-'12 when we would see cold signals in the long range but as we got within 7 days it backed off and we stayed milder...if this is the reverse of that there are plenty of signs that might suggest a ridge bridge building in Scandinavia over eventually to Greenland by Thanksgiving turning the NAO negative and the PV taking a bit of a beating. We COULD be setting ourselves up for a pretty great start to December if this has support in the next few days.

28 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The warm nose got further north than modeled for sure, even BUF popped over -4C at 800mb on their 00z balloon last night. I remember only looking at minus 7 to minus 8 in area of the sounding ahead of the event. I think the rgem and the hrrr handled the warm nose advance better than the other models from what I saw. 

Hell imagine if that 4 or 5 hour warm nose didn't push so far north...the airport might've picked up another couple inches...that would have been a pretty intense snownaker (outside of lake effect) for this time of the year.