Snowy Hibbo

It’s interesting that those SOI drops occurred while the MJO phase/signal was still over Maritime Continent. You could certainly argue a Nino-esque tropical atmosphere at least at the surface, because that’s certainly not how it is panning out in the extratropics, with a lack of momentum being quite obvious in the GSDM.

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/10/north-american-winter-outlook-2019-20/ So here is my final write-up for the North American winter. Analysis throughout of course, and results/conclusions towards the bottom. Comments are welcome.

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/10/north-american-winter-outlook-2019-20/ So here is my final write-up for the North American winter. Analysis throughout of course, and results/conclusions towards the bottom. Forecast map below.

G’day everyone. I would just like to present my preliminary seasonal outlook for the Northern Hemisphere, which includes driver discussion and analysis for patterns that run downstream to the Tennessee Valley https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/10/12/october-preliminary-2019-20-winter-outlook/ Snow & Ice conditions good for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. MJO largely good for European and UK snowfall, perhaps less so later in winter. Similar for Eastern US and Japan. Oceanic ENSO good for Japan, Southwest US and Eastern US. -AAM good for Europe, Eastern US and Japan, less strong later in winter. Stratospheric conditions favourable for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. Solar minimum favourable for more snowfall for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. Atlantic favourable for a snowy UK winter and colder Europe. QBO favourable for Eastern US, UK and Europe. North Pacific favourable for Eastern US, less so for PNW. “The Eastern US looks like it is set to have a good season as well, focused from the Central US early in the season, but more open to Nor’easters later in the season.“ Just to be more specific for the Tennessee Valley, I’d favour an average season in terms of cold, with lower temps favoured in the early-mid season, less so in the later season. I’d say a slightly-significantly above average snowfall season.

G’day everyone. I would just like to present my preliminary seasonal outlook for the Northern Hemisphere, which includes driver discussion and analysis for patterns that run downstream to New England. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/10/12/october-preliminary-2019-20-winter-outlook/ Snow & Ice conditions good for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. MJO largely good for European and UK snowfall, perhaps less so later in winter. Similar for Eastern US and Japan. Oceanic ENSO good for Japan, Southwest US and Eastern US. -AAM good for Europe, Eastern US and Japan, less strong later in winter. Stratospheric conditions favourable for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. Solar minimum favourable for more snowfall for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. Atlantic favourable for a snowy UK winter and colder Europe. QBO favourable for Eastern US, UK and Europe. North Pacific favourable for Eastern US, less so for PNW. “The Eastern US looks like it is set to have a good season as well, focused from the Central US early in the season, but more open to Nor’easters later in the season.“