Snowy Hibbo

Putting together an analog for a moderate-strong Nina winters since the 1980s, based in the Eastern Pacific extending into the entire basin: Troughing/low pressure in the Eastern Indian Ocean and over Maritime Continent, certainly goes with the idea of a strong tropical standing wave over Maritime Continent. Strong Aleutian Ridge, supports snowfall and cold in Northern America and Canada. Less North Pacific Jet extensions, less atmospheric rivers. A very weak -NAO and more obvious Scandinavian blocking, which may help support snowfall and cold in Southern Europe/UK. Decent troughing of east of Japan versus strengthened Siberian blocking, which supports Japanese snowfall. We certainly see ECMWF go with a positive Equatorial Southern Oscillation, that matches with an atmospheric Nina going forward. So there is a case for seeing a proper atmospheric Nina....

Just an extract from my early seasonal update about ENSO, thought the analog might interest some. Text not entirely relevant to the US, worthy of note on the analog is the SE ridge that comes along with it.

It’s interesting that those SOI drops occurred while the MJO phase/signal was still over Maritime Continent. You could certainly argue a Nino-esque tropical atmosphere at least at the surface, because that’s certainly not how it is panning out in the extratropics, with a lack of momentum being quite obvious in the GSDM.