LurkerBoy

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

40’s?

60s coast

Record warm Sunday?

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Both the GEFS and EPS have low heights in areas where we don't want. I think some of you are taking advantage of legalized weed. Until then, we have a couple of threats through first week of December. That aspect hasn't changed. And to clarify because I see some hyperbole around, it's not a furnace that people are calling for...it looks like a relaxation where it could turn milder.

When is the relaxation posed to occur??

Looks like Dec 2/3 is a warmup but beyond still looks chilly to me! Glad to hear that the LR is improving...since we have systems moving through every few days, I have no doubt that we'll have a fun Dec. 

Looks like Nov ends with a neg departure as well. 

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this is easily the worst run of the EPS yet. That's ugly stuff beyond D13. Hopefully it is a little different looking as it gets closer. 

Theres a chance for an event or two though in the Dec 4-7 range. 

What’s it look like? I don’t have access to EPS :/

The LR doesn’t look that bad to me. Why are people being so gloomy? Looks like a modest relaxation then back to surprisingly good !

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Looking somewhat putrid by 12/9. Def seems like a period of one eyed pig is going to happen. The hope is that it is transient and doesn't plant itself for weeks. 

Yuuuuuuuuuuuge bummer :/

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not. It’s just not Deep winter cold. It’ll generally be BN, but not obscenely so . Dec 1-3 is when deep winter hits with big east coast storm and locked in cold 

Much different tenor this year than many years previous...something different in the air...I like

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You love December look though 

Yeah I'm confused, I really didn't think it was a full scale pattern change to AN/Pacific driven...

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We re-shuffle

Wait, to me it still looks very BN thru early Dec...? Doesn't that mean inherent good chances? 

57 minutes ago, Weatherexpert said:

7-Day Forecast......
The good News is...no big storms expected for awhile....Great for Holiday Travel of course.
The Bad News is...the colder than normal weather pattern continues.

What a weenie

Looks like a quick spike in temp after thanksgiving that gets beautifully brought back down in time to start Dec. 

Looks like we could be a top 5 coldest Thanksgiving ever with the current modeling. Moderation thereafter definitely being shown, but it's nothing too crazy. 

I'm liking the evolution of this winter. 

I am not seeing the thaw, can somebody please illuminate which models are showing it, or is it being shown in more esoteric models than the usual?

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2018/11/15/winter-weather-forecast-snowfall-prediction-boston-massachusetts-new-england-eric-fisher-wbz-tv/

Eric Fisher says cold and snowy

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS 

How mild?

Been snowing real winter snow in Brooklyn for the last couple hours. Magical.

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a cutter after T-Day.

Lock it up

?

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

A rather non-niño look on the EPS. That -EPO look will get us mild after thanksgiving, but could be interesting if you roll forward. Of course it’s struggling with the Pacific pattern so normal caveats apply. 

If my anecdotal memories are of any interest, I remember some big winters that followed a somewhat mild start to December. Clicking on around the 15th of dec 

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Weeklies look good for December

I wouldn't be surprised if we moderate around the holiday for a time and early December. That happens frequently when we have cold mid-Novs. Looks to be that way - however, the lack of a torch signal is promising! Hopefully seasons in seasons

An active period approaches. After some storminess with high thunder/lightning potential tomorrow and tomorrow night, we BN for a while. Then around 300hrs (GFS) a huge ridge builds in the east with what looks like a huge storm passage. We'll see. 

23 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We take!  That’s a week Thanksgiving so maybe relax and reload?

I wanna gobble that up!

The long range continues to excite! Despite some yo-yoing, it is active and there is a potent source region for cold. I have a feeling we'll have a traditional northeastern end-to-fall with big swings in temps and thread-the-needle opportunities. According to Michael Ventrice, however, LR modeling has been extremely volatile of late. 

We'll see! 

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you think next week looks like after the cutter? Much colder pattern?

Looks like after today/tomorrow we spike up again during the cutter (mayyyybe mid 60s? Hopefully a little more seasonable) then dive into a traditional November pattern.