LurkerBoy

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol . Umm no

I’m going off the GEFS. Should I be looking elsewhere? 

End of Sep looks N/BN!

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

man...it's straight up hot today...

88/69 here

Where are we ranking on the top hottest summers? 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s going to feel like a shock when we finally get into a normal/BN pattern. This is perfect timing for extended warmth. Days and days of 80/55 are fine by me.

When do you think that’s coming though?

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another week of torch and dews . Leaves are already weeks behind 

 

Why do you ride this so hard? Legitimately curious 

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big un coming 

When's it begin?

Is the ‘cane gonna affect the pattern LR? Break up the ridge situation? Also, are LR forecasts less accurate when there’s one of these babies in the mix?

How's the LR look for temps?

32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

After next week's cool down the GFS looks toasty heading into the end of September.  

The OP?

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 75+ Miami dew points return on Tuesday.

 

Insane. Worst summer in my lifetime, and it doesn't want to end. Definitely "chilling", although that may not be the most apt word. 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So much for the coc k 3-4 days. Ugly 

?

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah that one 

You have to understand ...despite all protestation, I carry on a love-hate relationship with the art of "spellitry" 

anyway, that was intended to lean on the side of amusing more than anything else - obviously.. .But it was 300 or so hours out so -

We can't really get a bead on the mid range ... Seems every cycle spins a new complexion for that D4.5 through 9 time frame - the latter half being more extended...  The GGEM's 12z run decides to pin Florence over southern GA long enough to turn the near shore oceanic waters the color of turbid mud from the bible rains that surge forth...  while driving 850 mb temperatures to 19C or even 20 for four straight days over top, circa ORD to PWM...  

So much for the 'back of summer is broken' in that run.   This may be latest in the year I've ever seen this sort of geopotential height panache frankly, regardless of that stupid model ..regardless of this weekend's seasonal lie.  The Euro out through D7 may not be quite as pig bum sultry in the 850s but if anything looks even more ridgy at mid levels.  

What does this mean for sensible weather?

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol . A 2-3.day mild down sure. That’s it. Right back to WAN and dews thereafter. Enjoy the 70’s this weekend and carve pumpkins and buy mums

You're annoying

I've had several conversations this summer/recently (as well as this past winter) about how the warmer-than-normal weather makes everyone feel on-edge. Usually the conversation of climate change is brought up, because everyone feels that this may be the "new normal". The fact that the LR looks AAN is definitely disturbing. Does anyone else get this feeling, or is it skewed because my friends and I are all 22-26 years old?

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The TORCH! Begins today . Front next weekend now looks meh as it hits SE ridge 

Stop acting like you don't wish it was pumpkin-spice weather. Next weekend looks BN for a few days

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Torch

We start as a torch for sure, are there any signs of the heat/humid pattern breaking down? Looks like small intervals of seasonable/BN with long swaths of AAN. 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Several of our stations will finish August near the warmest on record. There were also a number of local stations with a top 5 and 10 warmest summer(JJA). But the high humidity was even more impressive than the temperatures. JFK is at 34 days of a 75 or higher maximum dew point. This is 10 more days than the previous record. It is also a new extreme for 3 consecutive years with so many days. 

through 8/30:

............AUG....JJA

EWR.....#5

LGA......#2......#3

JFK......#5

HPN.....#2......#8

BDR....#2........#3

ISP.....#4........#5

Is this correlated to AGW? Seems extreme. 

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Holy hell! 

I just saw the 06 z oper. GFS...  850s would support 91-96 for like 7 straight days. 

So, perhaps I was a bit quick to judge next weeks potential above... But, I still think that past September 1 we need the other parametrics to be pretty damn good - no offsets.. So we'll see. 

But 120 through about 312 hours ... it's like 17 to 21C at 850 the whole way...  

In any case, yeah ...the Euro is edging 850 s warmer and showing less of those suspect, SE Canadia troughy side-swipes so it's lookin' toasty too 

That's just one Op run, though, yeah? If we got 91-96 for a week straight...I might lose my mind here in NYC. Weather is weather, but woof. I hope that doesn't verfiy 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Long range models including the EPS continue to underestimate the strength of the WAR. Notice how the ridge is getting stronger for next week the closer in we get. 

old run

 

new run

 

 

Hotter than this wave next week?

Hotter next week than yesterday and today?! 

Is it really over after today? Looks like midweek next could get hot, and tomorrow will probably overperform. 

Big torch after thanksgiving? 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Replying to @NWSSanDiego San Diego Miramar NAS, CA, hit 106°F today. This is the highest temp for any station / any year in the U.S. between Oct 25 and Mar 13.#cawx

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Jeez. It's really happening.