LurkerBoy

GEFS looks just like EPS. We wait. 

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Next week will be balmy.

 

How bad? I don’t like warm and sunny on Christmas. Everyone knows that ain’t right. 

14 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Had a morning low of 10.8° around 630.  24 hours earlier it was 51°.

Beautiful. Shame it can’t be like this for Xmas. 

If a back door cold front were to occur, when would it start showing on the models?

60 on Xmas still? 

34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I don't see anything that leads me to believe a good winter pattern is on the way within the next 2 weeks and who knows what the "improved pattern" will look like whenever it gets here. 12z eps is pretty bad. One of the worst runs yet lately. Time to put all our chips on the GEFS.  

What’s it show?

8 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Weenier run alert! 

Is this the possible backdoor? Also isn’t 6z nighttime?

Temps on xmas in the WNC mountains? Warm?

Hope Asheville can get some dusting at least, and some back door action for the holiday. 

New EPS looks sh!tty apparently 

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EPS say absolutely not for the 22nd. 

I'm back out.

What’s it say?

Warm Christmas inevitable. Huge bummer. 

The new normal. 

13 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

torch

Those are 850s

Not looking great, GEFS and EPS all say we mild for the rest of the month. Which, with our climo...means snow might have to wait till the new year. 

33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I don't know if I would call one day worth of warmth a torch. And that is more so for down in your local (NC) vs up in our region where the northern sections may not even get out of the 30's. Even the southern and eastern portions of the region see only a brief half day warm up at best. 

And this brief warm up isn't even associated with the EPS advertised PAC flood it is just a natural response of a trough moving into our region.

Gotcha. I'm such a noob it's embarassing. I just like seasons in seasons, and that's why i'm here. Maybe it's people like me who've ruined it. Hmm. Thanks for info everyone, I truly do enjoy it. 

I mean, Tuesday of next week is a torch. We won’t be avoiding any torch because it’s already on the way.

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is a legit torch towards the end. CMC/GFS would be the same if the phantom storm wasn't there. If it's going to happen then lets just get it out of the way sooner rather than later. 

Isn’t it always a torch towards the end?

Are temps torched, or is it just too warm to snow?

Today’s runs = bummmmmmmmers. 

3 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

In fact the CMC and Euro low locations are almost identical at the end of the run. 

I suppose a phase is needed to pull the cold down?

Yep, I guess we torch, just in time for Christmas, as always. 

So, as always, the GFS and the Euro are on different pages when it comes to the Xmas torch. And, just like always, I'm sure the GFS will cave to the Grinch Euro. 

I think model-wise we’re fine. CFS meaningless 

11 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Well this forecaster at the CPC certainly is a .  We shall see I guess.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

"For those celebrating the Christmas holiday, travel conditions should be favorable, with the likelihood of a major winter storm looking minimal for most of the central and eastern U.S and the influx of moisture starting to wane in the west. Those dreaming of a white Christmas are likely to be sorely disappointed; temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. are forecast to be anomalously warm."

LOL

Anyone have any thoughts on what the pattern will look like come festivus?