LurkerBoy

Hey y’all, didn’t mean to cause any annoyance. I was literally just asking if it seemed like a lock or not - not asking for someone to “lock it up”. Sometimes LR warmth is 98% likely. Looks like this year it’s not as easy as that. I’ve been enjoying this year so far - feels like one from my youth. All I want is sweaters to not suffocate me on a post-xmas walk. 

Looks like we fluctuate from BN to AN and avg right in the middle, a bit (-). No real huge storms on horizon. Talk of a potential warm up mid month...probably inevitable. Just hope the holidays can be nippy rather than balmy. 

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A lot of signs on the ens that we lose the Pac in a couple weeks. Not saying I think we flip warm and stay there but it sure looks like (to me) a relax is coming for north america in general. 

This contradicts CAPES latest post. Time will tell!

Things be looking up a bit in model world. 

How’s the LR looking? To me it seems we oscillate between AN and BN but avg out around normal for temps. Mostly rain but with some mood flake potential. 

Surprised nobody is talking about the mini torch tomorrow! Afterwards looks quite ripe. 

Sneaky torch this week...

Am I reading things wrong or is there a little torch near/after Thanksgiving, then cold beginning that weekend? 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You asking the boys club that doesn’t know anything for a condescending answer?

Yeah

So is the new thinking that dec will be AOAN? Sorry, I’m a noob and it’s harder to parse the more esoteric speech. 

2 hours ago, J.Mike said:

Looks interesting, if the hype pans out:

IBM Global High Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System

 

Very interesting, given that The Weather Channel is an IBM company. 

Not to jinx it, but the GFS looks extremely solid this last run for weenies. 

Even the pattern shuffle warm up isn’t looking too bad

Seems like we relax this pattern in a real way come Turkeyday, tho mostly around normal temps. If what I'm gleaning from seasoned meteorologists is correct, the long range is looking "fine" for snow chances, but might end up being the usual mild we've seen since the early 2000s. 

None of you know what you’re talking about and there’s no women in this forum anywhere because it’s a boys club where outsiders are condescended to. Have a good winter. Move north

Is there warmth coming in December for sure? 

Yee haw. Good fall so far. 

13 hours ago, Buckethead said:

So the euro took a step towards the GFS on next weekend's potential snow this afternoon.  Widespread accumulation across the high country and minor accumulations for many in WNC. 

What are the thoughts on WNC in general this winter? Just moved to Asheville from Upstate NY. I'm expecting a little less than I'm used to, haha. 

48 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Yo-yo month ahead for temps according to GooFuS.  Should be some pretty wild swings even beginning this week into next weekend.  Brrrr.....

Surprisingly on the BN side more than the AN side!!!

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like the SPV will undergo some perturbation/elongation after an apparently brief strengthening. GEFS has the TPV on our side of the pole in the long range with surface pressure building up top in the AO domain. Current CPC forecast has the AO trending negative after the first week in Nov. Lets see how this plays out, and if it verifies, does it actually become a  sustained feature going forward.

What happens if it becomes a sustained feature?

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wow, the storm this weekend has really trended west, towards the Euro solution, on the GFS from earlier runs this week. What looked like a washout may end up no rain at all in central NC. It does however stall out the boundary and re-form precipitation over the area early next week. Definitely trending towards an amped low in the MS valley for the system this weekend though

What about temps?

15 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Well, gfs not folding yet as of 18z for the weekend and next week.

How’s it all look now? Sorry, comp broken and phone super slow.

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs pretty progressive with our first real cold push and hard freeze . Now has Tuesday as the transition day . Lots of 40s highs next week . I'm personally rooting for it .

Heck yes! And thanks for response re: GFS. Let’s hope for a crisp rest of autumn and seasons in seasons. 

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs says Parka jackets on Halloween 

How has the GFS been performing this year? Sorry, I’ve been off forums for a year or so.

Looks like we get a SE Ridge flexin pattern. The new normal.