LurkerBoy

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Your username is very disturbing and says that perhaps you do

They won’t let me change it :/

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah let’s throw maybe .25 accretion on trees and lay a couple wet inches on top !

You’d know a lot about a couple wet inches 

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You're weenie. As such you are treated as one.

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yo...the fact that any of us are wasting our time on this website makes us all weenies.

The fact that some on here love using that term for the less experienced is a weird thing that is a tool of social positioning that is most commonly seen in middle school boys. It is used to make yourself feel better about how little you know/can control. A big boys weather club! 

Scott, you whiffed this one while the “weenies” who remained optimistic were correct. I’m sorry if this pokes a hole in that very visible ego, but thems the breaks!

god bless us one and all

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Enjoy the rain, it's the only rain you've got. 

Scott, I’m 24 years old. I’m looking at models and listening to mets. More than just in this forum. Don’t treat me like a kid. I can take roasting but please, I’m putting the work in.

the relaxation is not what you claimed. Not a shot at you, just me stating what I see. 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro wants none of the GFS next week and it seems like the 6z took a step in the direction. Still time for that, but right now I wouldn't expect much at all. At least we thaw out for a few days. 

The torch/relaxation the euro wanted is now a 2-3 day +5. 

Then we Xmas of yore. 

It’s a madhouse! 

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs looking more like the Euro, shows a puke fest all the way through the holidays. 

Really pathetic pattern overall, it might as well be a torch fest. Blinds closed till January?

????

Looks like we narrowly avoid a 2011-2012 like pattern and stay somewhat wintery up to Christmas. Definitely more mild than we’re used to and definitely 5-10 AN. For about a week. Looks like we go back to BN just in time for hanging up stockings.

I think everyone in this forum should take a deep breath and appreciate the lack of AGW future weather. 

I’m flying to Montreal with my family to spend Xmas there. My hunch is we get a historic storm on the 22nd when my flight is, forcing the airline to cancel it, and thus forcing me to stay in NYC for the holiday. 

Such a confusing thread to follow! Seems like nobody knows for sure what goes down next 2 weeks. 

Compared to lots of Decembers in the past, even the zonality coming up is nothing too sad. Don’t know why all the angst in here seems to be negative. 

All the mets are saying patience will pay off. Sometimes there’s no hope in sight.

I’m calling for 1 ft of accumulations inland by New Years. 

Looks like santa's main gift for us all will be a return to a more wintry pattern and snow chances abound. We might need rudolph to get through the fogginess before then, though!

I know the forecast is for some AN weather, but the question is - AN and DRY or AN and WET? Thoughts?

I’m honestly confused (sorry everyone). I’m reading that there’s no real warmup, but the actual meteorologists are saying that we get torched full-tilt on/around the solstice. 

To me it it looks like we’re AN for like a week then ride the line? 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Your best bet is to hope something comes around Christmas, which is not out of the realm of possibilities. With the EPO ridge cold dump, I'm also aware models may rush it to the East Coast.

Currier and Ives had some summer paintings, right?

You’re all weenies!

17 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

...This does not mean that you are losing the Weenie Tag anytime soon.  Brownie points don't work.

Fine with me. I’m still a weenie. Just a self-loathing one

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When weenies don't get their bottle, they become agitated. 

Even I, young Padawan weenie, am starting to resent the folks who refuse any good info because it doesn’t sync up with their wishes.

There is something very relieving about submitting to the forces of nature. It’s beautiful. 

Nature, no matter what, will reign paramount to the romantic narratives of the human being.

Happy Sunday friends  let’s enjoy the thaw and hope it precedes a nice little winter pattern. Till then, thank you to Scott, Tip, ORHWxman and the other heavy hitters. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Frigid month. No one will end AN with such a gentle mild up

How gentle you thinkin, DiT?

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My best guess right now would be around the 23rd. This warm up right before the holidays seems to have become the norm over the years. Notice how NYC has reached 50 degrees or higher every year since 2011 from Dec 17-23. The only recent years this didn't happen were in 2009 and 2010 with the record breaking -AO pattern.

NYC high temperature Dec 17-23 since 2009:

2017....55

2016....58

2015....64

2014....54

2013....71

2012....56

2011....62

2010....38

2009....36

Wow...2013 was WILD.

I think the 23rd is exactly right, and that we see temps rise to 2014 levels for a day or 2. Nothing crazy. 

I still don't think the relaxation will be anything memorable and that we'll have a below avg December that fires up again around the solstice/Festivus. We've had solidly below avg temps for over a week and nobody seems to care. 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't have that stats in front of me, but it seems like the euro guidance has handled this better overall. Not that you should buy it outright, but it's been decent. BTW, yesterday when I talked about Mike Vs stuff...he has a euro set of guidance for tropical forcing.  Things like 850 winds, VP200 etc. The GEFS can have a retro bias I guess with that among other things, so it typically may not handle things right. 

FWIW I like to have some fun with the all cold all the time crew. But, I always put my thoughts out....and it's not always going to paint a rosy (or should I say white) picture. I like snow more as much as anyone...but I remove that bias as best as I can when it comes to putting my thoughts out there.  I know that's not what people want to hear, but why should I twist my thought process around for that?

I respect this. And speaking for myself, if I ever am over emotional while responding to you, it’ll always be from a place of wanting to shoot the messenger.

that said, just finagled some views at guidance, and it looks like we get a cutter then avg temps up till Xmas with possible warm ups when it gets wet. Not the end of the world. A very “2018” winter pattern. 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just prior to Christmas. The way things are going, probably will happen. Terrible month. Either cold and dry and every warm-up is rain. Hopefully it improves after Torchmas.

I think it will - that said, I have hope that the look around xmas will improve. Tell me if I'm wrong, but the dynamics of this year's weather feels different compared to that of previous torchmasses. 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some other stuff too. Hopefully the better guidance by a long shot is wrong. I'm not sure I buy a Christmas torch here quite yet. It's because the EPO tanks and the cold plunged into Plains first.

When you say Grinch do you mean non-christmassy weather around the 25th, or torching cutters? Can you show what it's showing?

Just bought new shades with snow on them so when I close them, it feels like November 2018 and not December 2018

38 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ensembles say 12/25 ish.  Before that we need luck.

Before that marginally wintery? Zonal?