LurkerBoy

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like a very MJO driven forecast from late October into early November. The current phase 8 translates into the NAO drop and storm signal for later in the month. MJO 8-2 is colder than normal here this time of year. But we have to watch for a move into 3 during November which would tend to moderate the cooler pattern with more ridging returning for the East. I think this active MJO is why the long range models keep shifting from run to run on their forecasts beyond a week to 10 days. They should settle down once they get a better handle on the MJO. 

 

 

 

Heard from NE thread that beginning of Nov re-torches? Is this the reason for models showing that? 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All guidance.

Okay. Sigh. The reason I post is to learn. Curt answers like this make me really debate staying on for the long run. I am wondering what the mechanisms are that will lead to the ridge reappearing, how long until it happens, and how torched it looks right now. I checked out the GFS and it doesnt seem TOO bad. 

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a retorch in early November with ridging in the east again. 

According to which models? 

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In a dangerous world, there always is.

One eyed piglet? 

Wait what factors are contributing to a cancell call!

Guys! Im kidding! Just wanted to spur some model talk. 

Looks like a thaw near Halloween. 

34 minutes ago, weathafella said:

All the ensembles are sniffing a cool to cold pattern to start November.  2002 had a warmup around the 2nd week but that was fairly short lived.

HOW LONG WILL THE WARMUP BE???? haha jk. I'm loving this Fall all of a sudden. I have a feeling we experience a frontloaded winter with most of the fun ending by mid-Jan, which to me is ideal. Let's see! Thanks for tolerating my emotional greenness, everyone!

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lurker boy is a massive weenie. Enjoy the mild period. 

There’s one coming? Where’d this come from?!!!

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro ensembles look like a mild period after next week but then reload on the cold pattern. Right around Halloween. We'll have to see if the timing changes or if the pattern doesn't materialize, but that could be a good pattern going into early November for an early season event. 

How mild does it look? 

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Continues to be signals in the 11-14 day runs and EPS of possible snows.. eerily reminiscent of Oct 2011

Uh-oh...famously a bad winter

Looks like one last mini torch Monday. 

Looks like this Oct may end up finishing around normal. What a wild world of weather.

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be BN at times for a week or so after dews and torch this week. But, BN won't last.

Agreed, but even tho BN wont last it still looks like it won’t rage back to a super torch. 

Looks like true fall in the LR!

1 minute ago, weatherbo said:

Third time seeing flakes this season, and the first measurable snow here in the UP.  Around 2" so far.  

 

jealous!

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It does look warm next week and then that’s about it. 

How warm we talking? I heard tell that the ridge wants to battle back for the end of Oct

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models are showing a trough split around the middle of October. So rather than a deep trough coming east, a piece gets left behind near the West Coast. Any cool down looks brief as the piece of energy near the West Coast helps pump the ridge over the East later in October.

New run

Old run

 

 

SO no seasonable weather this month?

Maybe we tickle 80 for a day or two with some humidity. The fact that this is the main topic of discussion day in and day out means our wx has been BOR-ing. 

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I warned everyone it would be , too - 

It's also why I'm not completely sold on the 'extremeness' of the warm up for next week - warm up?  mmm, okay. 

The difference here is that there ridge is more coherent in the runs.  Agreed.   Also, there are cycles of model runs, ...sort of like last night's 00z, that show a bit more N placement of the front and less lower level invasion of high pressure undercutting said ridge.   Other cycles have shown more of that.  So, there's some plausibility there that cannot be denied.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if there are N and/or BD type fronts persecuting SNE with cold seclusion while the 'pattern' is way above normal.  

 

Hey Tip,

As a n00b, when would these intuitions of yours start showing up on models? 

I will do everything I can to lose my weenie tag and eventually add something to the forum. Sorry for being emotional. I love weather, and I love fall and winter, and when something you love doesn't seem like it's coming, it affects you. Sorry again. 

Looks like by the end of next week, we go into a more Autumn-like pattern. The torchiness modeled for Sunday-Wed looks pretty consistent...probably mid-upper 70s for 4 or 5 days. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I respond to questions ask, and always try to post good info where applicable. I also don't bleed oil and like to have some fun. Sorry you're offended. Most people on here know each other and are just having some fun. Lighten up Francis,

Fine. Here's to a short fall and a long winter.  

Just now, bluewave said:

It's multiple factors. The record WAR since the February 80 degree day was only interrupted briefly by the strat warm in March and April. Since then, it has been there most of the time. Right now, the MJO going through phase 1-2 is enhancing the pattern. Those are some of the warmest phases for October.

Is this a harbinger of things to come? 

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Circle of Trust?

You long-time posters treat this forum like it's your little comedy open-mic night, with only some members regularly posting good information or responding to questions or guiding rather than patronizing. 

The reason silly questions are asked a lot is because they're not being answered fundamentally in the thread of convo that should be happening!

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When it’s 87 /69 in CON or BTV next week .. let’s revisit 

I think it'll probably be around 10deg cooler than that my man!