LurkerBoy

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can see that the EPS, although has a pre Christmas cutter look, actually looks the best in terms of getting a decent airmass into the Conus after that with that building EPO ridge. 

 

Christmas cutters are the only tradition that I look forward to anymore

“Grow thicker skin” - everyone at me when I get roasted 

“you should watch how you talk to Tip” - everyone when I try roasting 

anyways, EPS and GEFS look fine to me. December of yore, exactly average. 

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the read may be a little above your ability for reading and understanding the words ...   i dunno, but if you really need the simpleton version...

you no snow dec 9

maybe sumpin to watch mid month. 

Honestly, a better, more concise read ^ 

If you can synthesize the ideas into those dumb sentences, why the need to write essays sourced mostly from thesaurus.com?

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure how the tenor is leaning this morning ... but personally, I was particularly interested in these recent overnight model cycles - and have been since Sunday, actually. At that time, the day 4 was depicting the southern component wave mechanics as just entering the more physical soundings, and any amplitude starvation then might then get goosed.  

That appears to have come, registered, and set sail..    

Other's have observed and noted over the last two days that data sparseness at high latitudes would be problematic ... as out in time, any baroclinicity in the deep south/SE would be available ...should those northern sources deliver (supposedly..) the mechanics.  Not sure what those thoughts are/how they are basing them ... but my experience over of the years, the N-pole juggernaut correction scenario is more common in science fiction.    

I don't get the 'feel' that's in the cards here.  And with the southern component features of interest now being sampled, they don't appear to be sniffing out 'strong enough'  mechanics to do it on their own.  Therefore, barring (what I believe would need to be) seemingly almost miraculously arriving factor ...like, pretty much changing the entire circulation construct of this Hemispheric quadrature ... (a.k.a., highly unlikely) ... folding on that Dec 9/10 deal is a safe enough bet. Bluff called... Hey, the upshot?  I win either way... I don't give a schit about being wrong, and if it snows somehow, I'm happy just the same  

*****

There is a new signal.  Many are likely already aware.  Some others will likely be inclined to chide, given that they are presently jilted by excruciating obsession on fruitless phantom ... and can't wait to pounce.  However, maintaining some semblance of objectivity (because... what else have you got?), the PNA at both the CDC and CPC do offer a mass-field correction suggestion out there closer to mid month.. 

There's no way in the imaginary realms of sanity to even begin to speculate on details ... either way, the general canvas of overly active weather ... being Gatlyn gunned through the mid latitudes over N/A doesn't actually appear to be a pattern we've escaped from ...despite the present lull in activity that's being modeled (save for the S) - and this ending parathetical counts, too!   

I literally cannot parse any information from this, as usual. The most masturbatory prose I’ve ever read

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. 11-15 says the mild up is not just a 4-6 day event. 

What’s your hunch? Back half of the month +5?

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Im not sure what you’re seeing,but the longer range doesn’t look good. Sure you can sneak an event in amid an overall milder pattern, but that doesn’t make it a good look.

I definitely wouldn’t call it a 3-4 day relaxation and return to winter.

 

I think you're wrong, that's exactly what it looks like. LR looks fine. 

Who is saying that the LR is doomed? One storm is looking less potent and that’s it 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because it was always after 12/10, now after 12/12. I think your assumption of a few 40s and 50s is generous, esp where you are in the tropics. 

Doesn't look to be more than a workweek. And the deviation from normal seems tame at this time. What information is telling you otherwise? (Asking not to challenge you, but to further my knowledge/intuition)

The relaxation looks like a few days of 40s/50 then back to avg. also nobody has mentioned how we have like 10 days of BBN before it lol

Are we discussing the LR of a GFS OP run?

35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I thought I had too much time on my hands. 

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What is mild?

it's less spicy than medium

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

maybe we'll get a saved by the angel bells Christmas morning event again.

 

It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish

LR looking better! Looks like a few AN days then a return to normal. I’m cool with that. That said I don’t know how to read telleconnectors 

How bad is it?

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I keep seeing people say this, but what is this based on? It could easily be a pretty mild 10-14 days. It could also only be 4-6 days. I just don't see this overwhelming evidence yet that says "it's definitely only going to be a few days". 

I think we need to pump the brakes a little. 

The mixed signals is confusing for laymen! Sorry on my behalf and the rest of the weens. 

LR f*cked?

I bet we get a weekish of normal-slightly above.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1068352565979561984?s=20

Eric Fisher thinks warmup is a blip. 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12/5 is DOA

How’s the look after? December to misremember?

How’s the LR?

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Warm but not hot = mild. 10-14 day timeframe is 10-14 days from today. Count 10 days from today, that 10. Add 4 days to that day and you have 14. 

You suck , I thought he meant a 10-14 day threshold. And mild does NOT have a standard definition onthis board.

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not great.. not super terrible. Mild look for 10-14 days , but not torch NE. Manageable post Xmas

What’s “mild”? And what’s the 10-14 day time frame?

It’s still stuck in the 11-15...?