One thing I’ve learned from watching winter weather here my whole life - of knowing nothing other than just life and experience - is to not trust anything past five days other than if a long range forecast calls for really warm or really cold. Outside of that, it’s just educated guessing. If a temperature is within average, snow can occur if the storm track is right. The looks and patterns you speak of are just like, ok, cool, we might get an environment that’s more favorable to snow, but there’s no guarantee it will happen. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk. .