StormChazer

2 whole counties

Don't crush my dreams with your realistic approach. Tell me I'm going to get what the NAM showed yesterday morning with 13 inches of snow in Tulsa.

Nice 12Z NAM run, puts Tulsa back in the mix and drops half a foot in NW AR.

Unless I'm reading it wrong, based on the 500 MB vorticity, the NAM is going to come in similar to the previous run. Will post once it's up.

Here is the Euro shift visualized by the snowfall totals, it's pretty significant. It also looks like models are agreeing on a thin band of moderate snow on the west side of the storm near Tulsa, that will be VERY hard to predict where it sets up. Last night... Today..

At 21Z Difference. This run...

Euro is shifting west as well. Looks to be playing ball for you NW AR peeps. Will post soon.

12Z Canadian Vs 00Z Canadian. Last Night's totals. This afternoon... A definite increase in QPF and westward shift... NW Arkansas totals will be a lot higher if those temps get down. West Fayetteville VS East Fayetteville BIG difference.

The Euro is much more complicated.....it shows a significant warm nose for NE Oklahoma which stops it from snowing at all. Not much change from last night's 00Z run. That being said, the 6Z and 18Z runs of the Euro use outdated upper air data, so if there's a western trend, expect it in the noon run(which I will post).

Comparing this morning's 06Z GFS run to the 12Z run. You can definitely see that shift west. I will post the 6Z run of the Euro as well in a few minutes.

I'm not gonna talk about the NAM, I'm not gonna talk about the NAM, I'm NOT gonna talk about the NAM............................. but did you see it though?

Almost drops 2 inches in Tulsa though. That sure would be nice.

Here to say it’s technically snowing in Tulsa. Flurries.

0Z GFS breathing some life into our winter weather chances.

Now we’ve got something to talk about for the new year!

I'm here! Winter is upon us before we know it!

Radar presentation of the western eye wall appears to be improving once more.

Definitely deepening, wouldn’t be surprised if the recon finds us a 3 at this rate.

Chased around Stroud, OK, all the way over to Henryetta, OK yesterday. Not a single tornado warning, and only the occasional area of rotation that was almost impossible to predict and chase due to the nature of the storms... I did find out after the fact there was a confirmed tornado on the ground in Raiford, OK to the SE of Henryetta, shortly after I called it quits and passed not 20 min from there before hand. If I had a crystal ball I could have been there, but who knows if I would have even seen it in that terrain and HP.

Mike Armstrong on Channel 5 just had rotation drop right ontop of him, literally.

Can confirm, we've been cooking in the sun here in Tulsa for a bit now...85 degrees out.

First tornado warning! Loyal, OK

Starting to think we might have a decent chance at tornadoes around I-44 and I-40 this evening....

My chase target is as clear as mud today.........