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rainsucks

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Everything posted by rainsucks

  1. rainsucks
    nuts to see a scene like that in the UP this time of year.
  2. rainsucks
    that storm near the end of the 18z GFS run would put both GHD blizzards to shame. I understand there’s next to zero chance of it verifying, but still fun to look at.
  3. rainsucks
    ORD nearly tagged 60 earlier, not bad.
  4. rainsucks
    I’m actually getting strong 2011-2012 vibes from this winter so far, despite that one being a nina winter.
  5. rainsucks
    The models (even the ensembles) have been wildly inconsistent in handling the large-scale pattern during what is now the 11-15 day time period (though I suspect they’re likely too cold as usual). Still though, you can never be 100% certain as to how it’ll all play out.
  6. rainsucks
    right, but every forecast I’ve seen was still way too cold for Dec overall
  7. rainsucks
    is this supposed to be a shitpost or something
  8. rainsucks
    I don't think anyone had forecasted this month finishing with near +15 departures for any region, yet that appears likely to be the case for the far northern tier of the CONUS. Also, Christmas this year looks to feature temps running 20 degrees or more above average for a large section of the country that happens to include much of this subforum, so "mild" is a bit of an understatement.
  9. rainsucks
    With all due respect, there's virtually zero chance ORD finishes the month with only a +4 departure. +8 or +9 seems much more likely at this point
  10. rainsucks
    Still rather skeptical of an actual major SSW event occurring. I know the GFS and its ensembles have been hinting at one, but it hasn't really been that consistent.
  11. rainsucks
    Would be surprised if temps only maxed out in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Christmas Day across the Quad Cities based on latest model trends, but we’ll see.
  12. rainsucks
    pretty strong signal on the long-range GFS for a potential storm around the new year timeframe. Been doing it for several runs now, lots of snow with it too.
  13. rainsucks
    Lol, a PV lobe that brings us down to merely average. That's actually pretty sad in a way
  14. rainsucks
    I can def see this December surpassing both 1881 and 2015 for warmth actually, depending on the location.
  15. rainsucks
    lol no
  16. rainsucks
    funny thing is if it weren’t for that short-lived albeit severe cold snap, last Dec would’ve finished comfortably above average temp wise.
  17. rainsucks
    Feel like that has to be some kind of record. Seems very impressive.
  18. rainsucks
    the CFS has a favorable pattern for a January 2006 redux
  19. rainsucks
    wouldn’t be surprised to see some March 2012-esque departures by the end of the month for the extreme northern parts of the sub given how warm it’s been and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, and also due to the fact that there’s quite literally no cold air on this side of the globe.
  20. rainsucks
    All deterministic models are shit for the most part. GraphCast had a much better handle on the overall large-scale pattern for this timeframe.
  21. rainsucks
    HRRR has MKE barely tagging 50 on that day, which seems hard to believe. Think the model has a severe cold bias these days, which is strange considering it had performed fairly well in the past.
  22. rainsucks
    April maybe, but 2020-2022 all featured warm Marches, so not a bad run.
  23. rainsucks
    I don’t think we see a significant, long-lasting pattern change to colder occur this month due to MJO influence, but we’ll see.
  24. rainsucks
    lots of folks in denial for some reason.
  25. rainsucks
    yeah, I’m def seeing zero evidence whatsoever for a cold Dec. GEFS looked quite toasty, especially come second week of Dec
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