Vice-Regent

Look at all that red my man. Sure looks like Hadley Cell expansion... for those less versed in this subject please have a read. The major driving force of atmospheric circulation is the uneven distribution of solar heating across the Earth, which is greatest near the equator and lesser at the poles. The atmospheric circulation transports energy polewards, thus reducing the resulting equator-to-pole temperature gradient. The mechanisms by which this is accomplished differ in tropical and extratropical latitudes. Hadley cells exist on either side of the equator. Each cell encircles the globe latitudinally and acts to transport energy from the equator to about the 30th latitude. The circulation exhibits the following phenomena:[1] Warm, moist air converging near the equator causes heavy precipitation. This releases latent heat, driving strong rising motions. This air rises to the tropopause, about 10–15 kilometers above sea level, where the air is no longer buoyant. Unable to continue rising, this sub-stratospheric air is instead forced poleward by the continual rise of air below. As air moves poleward, it both cools and gains a strong eastward component due to the Coriolis effect and the conservation of angular momentum. The resulting winds form the subtropical jet streams. At about 30° latitude on either side of the equator, the jet streams become so much faster than the surface wind speed that baroclinic instability prevents the Hadley circulation from extending further poleward. This coincides with the beginning of the Ferrel cells. At this latitude, the now cool, dry, high altitude air begins to sink. As it sinks, it warms adiabatically, decreasing its relative humidity. Near the surface, a frictional return flow completes the loop, absorbing moisture along the way. The Coriolis effect gives this flow a westward component, creating the trade winds. The Hadley circulation exhibits seasonal variation. During the solstitial seasons (DJF and JJA), the upward branch of the Hadley cell occurs not directly over the equator but rather in the summer hemisphere. In the annual mean, the upward branch is slightly offset into the northern hemisphere, making way for a stronger Hadley cell in the southern hemisphere. This evidences a small net energy transport from the northern to the southern hemisphere.[1] The Hadley system provides an example of a thermally direct circulation. The thermodynamic efficiency of the Hadley system, considered as a heat engine, has been relatively constant over the 1979–2010 period, averaging 2.6%. Over the same interval, the power generated by the Hadley regime has risen at an average rate of about 0.54 TW per year; this reflects an increase in energy input to the system consistent with the observed increasing of tropical sea surface temperatures.[2] Overall, mean meridional circulation cells such as the Hadley circulation are not particularly efficient at reducing the equator-to-pole temperature gradient due to cancellation between transports of different types of energy. In the Hadley cell, both sensible and latent heat are transported equatorward near the surface, while potential energy is transported above in the opposite direction, poleward. The resulting net poleward transport is only about 10% of this potential energy transport. This is partly a result of the strong constraints imposed on atmospheric motions by the conservation of angular momentum.[1]

So true Chuck. I could not go outside on Thanksgiving without dieing as well. Waiting for 2019-2020.

Take pride in nothing. You would be right behind me if you did not have posterity.

A broken clock is right twice a day as it were. The jet stream seems to get all whacked out in March. I would count on us scoring big as much as torching this year.

Was not expected for awhile but sometimes I wish I was. Lol

It's all cutter city garbage pattern. I would chime in if it was noteworthy. We need everything in our court these days to get snow at the shore.

Look at the Pacific tho. Just half of that setup is enough to cancel the party. We're probably overdue for this kind of setup.

Don't look at the 12z Euro. Toaster bath run.

This trash weather model is burning me out. What exactly is happening here?

I stand by my belief that this hobby is pure masochism. Why I became a severe wx/warm season enthusiast. You never know if you ever had a chance.

12z GFS the ultimate troll show. Jeez. Watch it be the only major accumulating event of the winter. Places to our south would have more on the season.

Reminds me of December 2016. Massive breaks in the Hadley with North America flooding with tropical warmth. Get your toaster baths ready.

There is no way of quantifying the amount of heat in the deep ocean and it matters alot. Deep ocean warming substantially affects the rate of sea level rise. This doesn't change anything if anything creates more concern that we don't know or understand ocean heat transport.

All of the above data is solidly backed by sea level rise trends. However the recent increase in sea level cannot be attributed directly but it's likely the lions share of recent SLR has derived from Antarctica. Locally, the high tides and sunny day flooding has ticked up substantially since 2015.

You don't want to lose "all" of your confluence. The LP is already in danger of cutting off at H5 and becoming a high elevation snow event. Typical thread the needle early December event.

By and large the PV is not established. The burp of cold air on thanksgiving didn't help. All of that was washed out over the North Atlantic. Classic land-ocean contrast.

Well you figure with the Hadley Cells somewhat beefed up as such the Conus would flood with humid PAC air in the event of a mature el nino/AK vortex combo. This is lethal for us.

They call it "Black" Friday for a reason and for reasons you may not expect.

Appealing to the evidence and reasoning behind the processes has never worked. It seems anecdotal hype and other insanity (storytelling) is the only way to reach people in the Trump clickbait era. As well. I am aware of alarmism burnout. It is highly dangerous but like most things in life you have to break your back to get what you want. This internet keyboard warrior thing is a bit elementary.

I finally came out of the woodwork. Lol

lol

Grab your favorite Waifu and relax by the fire. It will be a long winter. That's all we know thus far.

Could be an artifact of a growing network of observations. Before 2000 ocean heat content was very poorly measured especially at depth.