We love our bbr2314 (Quoted from ASIF)
bbr2314
« Reply #1603 on: Today at 07:49:13 PM »
The situation has actually been quite similar to 2012 this June, IMO. The differences are that we are more "advanced" in accumulating oceanic heat so the Hadley Cells have advanced farther north, while the albedo impacts have also created new negative anomalies as ^ has occurred prior to full continental melt-out.
You can clearly see that heat has been pouring into the Arctic just as it did in 2012, only this year, due to what has happened re: Kara, it has been forced even farther N, entering over the Laptev. The anomalies have been scorching over half of the Arctic.
While the rest of the CAB has been about normal, that is irrelevant to what is going to happen next. If you roll 2012's monthly anomalies forward, the areas that accumulated the most heat early on in the season featured the brightest reds come September and October.
If we can imagine the same happening this year (and I don't see why we shouldn't at this point), we can magnify the June pattern into July, August, and September. This results in a near-perfect "sequential" melt out of the weakest ice in terms of accumulating albedo feedbacks into autumn, so the "order of operations" for reaching the CAB and melting it out by late July or August is much more efficient this year than in any year prior, IMO.
Oh, and the PAC is far worse than 2012, as is the high ATL, in terms of SSTs / available & impending heat through autumn.
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