KoalaBeer

Latest dropsonde is very close to cat 5.

GYX been sleeping on the dense fog advisories. Probably can go ahead and pull the trigger on that one. ~200/300 yard visibility in Hampton. PSM reporting 1/4 mile. 

“Biggest conundrum at this point appears to
be the possibility of another dense fog advisory tonight...“

Predictably boring on the NH seacoast. Some good waves out there but PSM didn’t even gust 30.

Who would of thought the weather story of the day would be the flooding in Tennessee? 22 dead and 50 missing.  

Good thread here for those interested.

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The fuel and salaries wasted flying all these planes into mehnri. Your tax payer dollars folks.

I’d say better spent then 20 years in Afghanistan... 

Odd thing to complain about with how populated of an area Henri will be affecting.

Still thinking flooding is the biggest threat here.

Yup, was just about to say what everyone else did. That’s a worse solution for CT overall.

Hurricane Hunters are a busy crew tonight. Two planes in Henri and one in Grace. Curious to see what they find in Grace on the first pass. Wouldn’t be surprised if she is undergoing RI. 

7 minutes ago, MarkO said:

It's been improving throughout the day. Be interesting to see if this latest pulse produces an eye. Not sure why the Saffir Simpson Scale begins at 65kts, but it seems to be the difference between a discernible eye or not.

I think you just answered your own question. 

Looks like a non event for the NH seacoast. Just hoping for some good swell one day to get out surfing. Oceans been flat as a pancake lately. 

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

Although I agree it’s exceptionally rare, how can he just cherry pick that one spot on that spacial grid scale? Just completely ignore the 9kts 10-15 miles to the east? 

Probably a fortunate thing Henri will be crawling over those colder SSTs however. 

15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Eye starting to show?

Look at shortwave IR at night to see the low level cloud patterns better. LLC is still at the northern edge of the deepest convection. Starting to get covered up better now however. MLC and LLC don’t look totally vertically stacked yet. 

Looks like 5 recon flights into Henri tomorrow. 3 low-level and two upper.

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON GRACE WHILE IT REMAINS A THREAT.
       B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON HENRI AT 20/2330Z.
       C. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND
          HENRI FOR THE 21/0000Z AND 21/1200Z SYNOPTIC TIMES,
          DEPARTING KLAL AT 20/1730Z AND 21/0530Z.
       D. NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO HENRI DEPARTING
          KLAL AT 20/2000Z AND 21/0800Z.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

Henri holding on well but still getting sheared heavily. LLC looks partly exposed or right on the edge of convection.

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is anyone taking the 18z NAM solution ...   hello - any takers...   Thought so

Que Joe Bastardi tweeting in 3,2,1.....”Cat 4 inbound!”

16 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

So any notable historic storms that slowed or stalled like some of these model runs?

Not that I’m aware of. Pretty much no historical analogs for this one. Nothing even remotely close to Bermuda has made landfall in New England before.

Credit Bob Henson/Jeff Masters for the image over at YCC.

Track of all tropical cyclones on record, going back to 1851, that passed within 120 nautical miles of Hartford, Connecticut, while still classified as hurricanes. (Image credit: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks)

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Hahaha Bastardi give me a break. The same guy posting about the 3K NAM showing Fred getting down to 956mb before making landfall on the FL panhandle. Even to my amateur eyes it was obvious connective feedback. Why’s he so obsessed with using the NAM for tropical systems? For the clicks and likes?

I trust not a single word out of that mans mouth at this point. Don’t care how much experience he has. 

Speaking of flash flooding....go check out the southeast forum thread. NC getting nailed. Sign of things to come? 

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

EF3 winds 140 mph in the Bensaem/Trevose area. Was most intense over the car dealership 

EF2 on the Ocean county one. What a day for them.

Should be fun watching the storms develop in the upper Midwest tonight. PDS watch issued. Maybe one day I’ll see a derecho in New England. 

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant
       gusts to 90 mph likely
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah Logan caught a decent gust but the data I saw looked isolated. I didn’t see a widespread issue from a geographical standpoint, but if it hits downtown everyone thinks the world ends.

Fair enough. Definitely not impressive in terms of hail/lightning but I wasn’t expecting the wind, and I obviously respect your opinion as a met. Always hard to tell how localized the severe wind is with limited observations as well. Logan is pretty exposed and my apartment is as well. 

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I could care less is someone gets 2CGs a minute instead of one. Nobody truly knows what severe is.

Doesn’t a 61mph gust literally fit in the definition of severe in the BOX forecast area? I didn’t have a single lightning strike by me but still gusted 50-55 in a crappy looking part of the line on radar. 

“A thunderstorm that produces a tornado, winds of at least 58 mph (50 knots or ~93 km/h), and/or hail at least 1" in diameter. Structural wind damage may imply the occurrence of a severe thunderstorm. A thunderstorm wind equal to or greater than 40 mph (35 knots or ~64 km/h) and/or hail of at least ½" is defined as approaching severe.”

If I didn’t know any better I would think a fog bank was rolling in. 

Hampton, NH looking over the salt marsh.

5:50 tee time in Haverhill as well. Those cells just north of Manchester need to screw off and die out. Not on a good trajectory for me to get 9 in. 

No warning on that cell in se NH with 65dbz? I bet Kingston area is seeing some good hail. 

Jeez the Jaffrey/Keene area could be in for trouble if current radar trends hold and that heavy rain downstream moves in. Ended up being a beautiful beach day here in Hampton. Just a few showers, sitting outside with a beer now. Been in a nice radar hole all day.