CheeselandSkies

Already a notable shift south from the previous 0Z run which had a big dog for S. WI. I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp at this point.

4.6" would be right up there for us this winter.

I know, right?

Man, that broad belt of vigorous 500mb SW flow east of the Rockies on the GFS about 5-7 days from now would be awesome if it was A/M/J. Someone in the sub might still have to keep an eye out for an overachieving early season severe event, although it'll more likely be in the Dixie jungles.

Our hotel is right across from it. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

While some are complaining about the lack of cold air, I'm wondering why it's basically the same temperature (mid-30s) and sky conditions (overcast) in southern Ohio as I left in Madison. 35 is mild by Wisconsin January standards, so you'd think it could be like in the 50s here, but nooooooo. Also been getting snow showers (melting on contact with the pavement) most of the day. - Currently in Dayton for my fiancee's brother's Air Force promotion. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Just in time to make it keep snowing through the end of April and virtually eliminate the storm chase season, just like 2018.

I sure hope not. Driving to SW OH (Dayton) and back for a family event late next week (Thursday-Saturday). As of yesterday GFS and Euro both painted upper 30s-low 40s and negligible precipitation.

That's the one thing that did perform pretty close to my expectations. Over 900 wind reports over the two days plus at least three brief but strong (EF2+) tornadoes with embedded supercells. The whole discrete supercells ahead of the line thing always seemed like more of an outside chance than a bona fide threat with this event, to me at least. Lots of soundings with shear vectors parallel to the front, even if there wasn't gnarly VBV in the vertical profile, and the speed shear made for extreme amounts of SRH.

That can't be right. There were at least that many F4+ in the state on April 16, 1998 alone, plus several E/F3+ on days like Veteran's Day 2002, May 4, 2003, Super Tuesday 2008, and April 27, 2011.

Just your average 65-70 degree range of possibilities.

Wicked ice storm for the WI/IL line and southern lower MI and probably some severe with that convection in the warm sector. I'd take that.

1,090 and no high risk. I'm not really seeing anything to flip us back to more sustained high-end tornado activity like was seen in some years such as 2003, '04, '08 and '11 (although, a neutral PDO and no big honking NE Pacific ridge forcing eastern troughing and keeping the central CONUS cold through April and into May after a mild DJF to piss off the snow lovers would help). Also guessing SPC will be somewhat gun-shy after the seeming slam-dunk of last May 20.

OT but I was just looking at your signature and scratching my head, wondering how Illinois had more tornadoes in that dumpster fire of a 2018 season than this year. Then I remembered...December 1st. 2013 (November 17th) and 2016 (March 15th, June 22nd) are also further down than I'd have thought. No surprise 2011 and 2015 are tops.

Near normal temps but highest snowfall anomaly? I'll take it. Normal winter temps are cold enough to snow in Wisconsin. It doesn't need to be in the teens, single digits or below. Now it needs to verify.

Can we save that surface pattern for May and June, please? Although the last few years have taught me not to blow off cool season chase opportunities. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

"Annoying" seems like the best way to sum up most of the upper Midwest's weather this decade. Aughts and '90s (although my perception of the latter may be somewhat muddied since I was a kid) were overall more active and impactful for both winter and severe. Ready to turn the corner to 2020.

I realize this won't be a popular opinion on this forum, but the winter of 2013-14 was a nightmare for me. Far too cold for too long, with too many nuisance/nickel-and-dime snowfalls. Having to brush/scrape my car off in the single digits or less at 2:30 AM for work at 3 AM for about 10 weeks straight got real old. That was after in the shower because my apartment heater couldn't keep up with that depth of cold, even running 24/7 which sent my power bills through the roof. Give me a relatively mild (5 degrees either side of 30) winter with a double-digit crusher or two.

I'll take that...would rather not have to deal with heavy snow for my planned Thanksgiving drive to Kenosha. Also, it always feels uber weird getting missed to the SOUTH in early/late winter season snow events...looks like that might be the case for the Twin Cities area again.

Argh. Deepens way too far to the east of us compared to the 06Z 10/20 run. Just raw crappiness, no fun weather for the north-central Midwest (WI/N. IL/E. IA/E. MN).

Proper inland hurricane right there! Been a while since the last one that actually delivered the trifecta of significant impacts - svr, winter and synoptic wind. We'll see...

Which it did...and largely busted as we know. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

If Monday holds serve from the 00Z suite, I suspect it will break the streak.

Can you give a little bit of background for what it means for CONUS severe weather which phase the MJO is in? Which phases are favorable and which are not?

Yeah, around 10 days ago I thought the pattern was gonna become more conducive quicker, but I have to remind myself there's still 9 days of March, and our morning temperature in the upper 30s today is actually slightly above normal.