CheeselandSkies

How's that 0/0/0 August looking, @ldub23?

Surprise marginal risk with 5/5/2 probs. Wasn't even really expecting rain today. Forecasts issued yesterday were like "Partly sunny with a 20% chance of showers," well, that 20% just hit here.

HRRR soundings for this evening look somewhat interesting in the state line region, but it doesn't really break out any supercells. I'll be in the area anyway since I was planning on heading to Illinois Railway Museum for Diesel Days today.

Not really medium range yet and probably a mirage (August isn't known for it's high-predictability long range severe weather regimes) but SPC gives some hope, although I know @Chicago Storm is not a believer.

 

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By late next week (around Day 8/Friday), some
   guidance suggests that the upper ridge may begin to break down. This
   may eventually allow rich low-level moisture to return northward
   across parts of the central CONUS.

   ..Gleason.. 08/12/2022

Three of the five Augusts going back to 2018 have been perhaps the most notable month of the warm season locally for severe and/or flooding, whether it be for a singular event (2020 derecho) or sustained activity levels over at least 1-2 weeks of the month. It appears this one won't be joining them, other than the headfake toward a significant flash flood event last weekend.

Current state of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season:
 

Yawn. Latest from MKX:

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With precipitable water values over 2 inches during this time
period, efficient rainfall rates over areas that already saw a lot
of rain last night keep our threat of flash flooding there, but it
looks like it`s getting lower and lower. This system looks like it
will be more progressive than what we were thinking yesterday and
the heaviest rainfall might end up splitting around us.

4 hours ago, madwx said:

Looking like a potential heavy rain event over the next 36 hours.  MKX talking upwards of 10” over multiple rounds

Yeah, this was kind of sneaky.

Surprise slight risk upgrade and severe thunderstorm warning here. Not much impact in MBY, though...but it was pretty.

31 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

We really haven’t had a real -NAO, just a pseudo weak one from time to time.

It has been more-so the persistent and significant troughing across the Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast much of the summer, as well a fairly persistent troughing across the GOA/Pac NW.

I'm guessing Powerball assumed that was tied to -NAO, as it usually seems to be a feature of such.

Kinda tame for a -ENSO/-PDO spring/summer. I thought the table was set to deliver big time heat and/or severe (think 1995, 2008) but the atmosphere couldn't quite pull it off despite several opportunities; each setup had something screw it up.

Storms firing up in SE MN/NE IA rolling east overnight. Severe weather not expected, but could get a nice light show when I'm heading in to work (or just get drenched) depending on timing.

Finally got around to editing and uploading my video from my local storm chase on the 4th:
 

Go00fus at 384...nice.

Second round which rolled through around 2 AM was much more vigorous than the first; best middle-of-the-night lightning/thunder show I've had in a few years. Quite a few more wind reports around southern WI than with the first round, too.

32 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Convection rebuilding nicely again in Wisconsin NW of Milwaukee. 

Tornado warning with that, although it was just cancelled. A couple of funnel cloud reports earlier, but velocities never looked that impressive.

Well, HRRR was partially right, with a southeast-moving supercell splitting off from the tail end of the complex and moving through Rock/Walworth Counties around this time.

It doesn't seem to be able to ingest enough unstable surface-based inflow for a threat, though.

Well, storms did fill in a bit and start to push south of due east across Dane County.

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We might barely see any rain out of this at this rate, let alone severe.

With the activity that is occurring, looks like a possible mesovortex taking shape SE of La Farge, WI.

20Z HRRR at hour 1 has a lot more, and stronger storms at 21Z than there actually are.

Complex really seems to be having trouble filling in to the south of that cluster now east of La Crosse.

Discrete cell that tried to get going in north-central Iowa appears to be dying as it approaches Calmar.

More capping than expected?

HRRR kinds of breaks up the complex just after it pushes through Madison and then has a couple of discrete supercells at 02Z. Weird.

SE MN cluster has an interesting motion, on the radar loop it seems to be surging alternately SE and then almost due E.

A member on another weather forum reporting issues receiving their confirmation e-mail when trying to join this one:

https://talkweather.com/threads/weather-banter.184/page-16#post-77749

Here we go:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1566.html

Watch being considered for portions of central/northern IL along the OFB.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1565.html

Things seem to be evolving roughly as expected with the MN/Nrn. IA MCS, with no significant trends up or down.

 

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The National Weather Service in La Crosse has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Fillmore County in southeastern Minnesota...

* Until 315 PM CDT.

* At 205 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Stewartville to near Adams, moving east at 35
  mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement reported 70+ mph wind gusts.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
           tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
           roofs, and outbuildings.

Anvil debris from that beginning to push overhead but still seeing filtered sunshine in west Madison at 1917Z.

For a threat, would have liked to see that OFB oriented more NW-SE instead of NNW-SSE as it appears to be.