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Posts posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. Surprise marginal risk with 5/5/2 probs. Wasn't even really expecting rain today. Forecasts issued yesterday were like "Partly sunny with a 20% chance of showers," well, that 20% just hit here.

    HRRR soundings for this evening look somewhat interesting in the state line region, but it doesn't really break out any supercells. I'll be in the area anyway since I was planning on heading to Illinois Railway Museum for Diesel Days today.

  2. Not really medium range yet and probably a mirage (August isn't known for it's high-predictability long range severe weather regimes) but SPC gives some hope, although I know @Chicago Storm is not a believer.


    By late next week (around Day 8/Friday), some
       guidance suggests that the upper ridge may begin to break down. This
       may eventually allow rich low-level moisture to return northward
       across parts of the central CONUS.
       ..Gleason.. 08/12/2022


  3. Three of the five Augusts going back to 2018 have been perhaps the most notable month of the warm season locally for severe and/or flooding, whether it be for a singular event (2020 derecho) or sustained activity levels over at least 1-2 weeks of the month. It appears this one won't be joining them, other than the headfake toward a significant flash flood event last weekend.

  4. 31 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

    We really haven’t had a real -NAO, just a pseudo weak one from time to time.

    It has been more-so the persistent and significant troughing across the Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast much of the summer, as well a fairly persistent troughing across the GOA/Pac NW.

    I'm guessing Powerball assumed that was tied to -NAO, as it usually seems to be a feature of such.

  5. Second round which rolled through around 2 AM was much more vigorous than the first; best middle-of-the-night lightning/thunder show I've had in a few years. Quite a few more wind reports around southern WI than with the first round, too.

    • Like 2
  6. 32 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

    Convection rebuilding nicely again in Wisconsin NW of Milwaukee. 


    Tornado warning with that, although it was just cancelled. A couple of funnel cloud reports earlier, but velocities never looked that impressive.

  7. Well, HRRR was partially right, with a southeast-moving supercell splitting off from the tail end of the complex and moving through Rock/Walworth Counties around this time.

    It doesn't seem to be able to ingest enough unstable surface-based inflow for a :twister:threat, though.

  8. 20Z HRRR at hour 1 has a lot more, and stronger storms at 21Z than there actually are. :huh:

    Complex really seems to be having trouble filling in to the south of that cluster now east of La Crosse.

    Discrete cell that tried to get going in north-central Iowa appears to be dying as it approaches Calmar.

    More capping than expected?

  9. Watch being considered for portions of central/northern IL along the OFB.


    Things seem to be evolving roughly as expected with the MN/Nrn. IA MCS, with no significant trends up or down.



    The National Weather Service in La Crosse has issued a

    * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
      Fillmore County in southeastern Minnesota...

    * Until 315 PM CDT.

    * At 205 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
      extending from near Stewartville to near Adams, moving east at 35

      HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

      SOURCE...Law enforcement reported 70+ mph wind gusts.

      IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
               tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
               roofs, and outbuildings.

    Anvil debris from that beginning to push overhead but still seeing filtered sunshine in west Madison at 1917Z.

    For a :twister:threat, would have liked to see that OFB oriented more NW-SE instead of NNW-SSE as it appears to be.

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