PB-99

I prob should have gone back to top NYC snowstorms 41 47 ( 60 lost ) 61

You`re right I forgot about Arizona

I still like the 7th/ 8th time frame here. I think we are probably coming out of a weak 3 or the null p After that It`s another hostile period. I see that some like the 2nd half of Feb , but every time the MJO wants to take a tour in those warm phases , it takes it`s time. And we are running out of exactly that.

In the Long Range, HECS in my lifetime, 77, 78, 83, 96, 03, 06, 09, 10,16. Yankees W/S wins and appearances 77, 78, ( lost in 82 ) 96, 98, 99, 2000, ( lost in 03 ) 09. Vegas over / under Yankees is 101.5. Simple, win the W/S this year and maybe we get a HECS next year, this year is done and has spit the bit. 15 days until Pitchers and Catchers so enjoy the FEB torch.

Yeh man, it`s over. I had FEB as my month and waited 2 months for it. It`s not going to work out.

Alta averages 500 inches a year. You should see if they are hiring.

Great upper mid west pattern.

This is our one decent chance

We may have a decent chance on the 7th/8th then turns the lights out

Looks good for upper mid west , not us. If 93 changed to rain on the coast, what do you think that does displaced 500 miles west ? He can`t be speaking about the E/C and I don`t think he is.

The model sees this on OBX so that`s a start , but that`s not where you want the jet aimed

The UKMET / ICON / JMA / NAVGEM / NAV ensembles all have a similar look. ( It`s not those 2 ) , however It`s a bad pattern / set up. But it`s late Jan and you just need to deepen / close off in the right spot. ( It would have to be absolutely perfect we know ) . Hat tip to Eric Webb for this good luck figuring out which one of the 4 Vorts phases and where. It`s why the models will have a hard time seeing it, let alone close in on a forecast. It is hard enough to snow on the coast with a good set up.

You will have a - EPO and LP/ LP`s running along an Arctic Boundary. Those work here.

The H is moving off, not building in. You will need to get kicked east by GL LP and deepen in the perfect spot just to cool the column. That`s not easy Anth, this is not coming into a cold dome of air / and or blocking. It`s not an easy pattern for the coast at all.

Anth, it has to be perfect in this pattern. Seriously.

Luckily that`s gone by day 11. The flow buckles as the heights rise near the Aleutians. The flow has Arctic influence not Pacific after day 10.

That L in the lakes is actually helping kick this to the BM. The timing of that feature is important, too slow and LP hugs without blocking, too fast and it punts it OTS. I don`t look at the lakes low as a 100 % negative. You can all S stream in late Jan, you just need it to deepen in the right spot. It`s just a very dicey set up thought and it all has to go right. And when was the last time that happened !

9 MB`s in 6 hours. You just need that to happen 6 hours earlier.

Posted these desired fixes away about 30 minutes ago and was really my 1st stab at this one because of a SW getting caught in an overall pattern. I want to erase the energy hanging on its backside. I want to push the heights into S Central Canada which would allow the heights to back around and up the EC and allow the backside energy to dive in and consolidate on Hatteras and allow the heights to rise on the east coast. Yes it's close, but it's also close to adjusting and escaping. The models have moved away from the big phase and that is what is needed for this to work. So we want to start seeing more robust LP. Again I haven't been definitive on this one because it's just not clear to me yet.

You would prob be near the top 5 if this week did not happen. Got the p7 response without a lag.

The big news here is TPV is moving away from Alaska and the deepest Negative is over the Eastern US. The Kelvin in p6 dies off then the models may be taking the MJO back out near 1 and 2. Can we get that Neg to swing into that trough off the WC, deepen and push those Heights back towards Alaska ? The Canadian sees the ridge and that would finally force Arctic air into the pattern. As far as day 10 , it`s track dependent , we could snow with PAC air the pattern because of the Late Jan, Early Feb time frame. However we would need a just east of the BM track to achieve that. Here are the last 7 days, we did correct to slightly BN regime even though the air has been Polar Pacific. ( The 16th is warm +9 and skews that ) . So the air mass is not putrid , just not well BN and you could snow on the right track with this I would really wait until I see those maps 10 days out, these day 15 maps look very good but can not be trusted yet.

Can`t get any closer to p8 than that Verification for the previous 7 days The GFS gets this into p8 for a day. So let`s see if that happens and that idea was at least right as the wave is collapsing. They agree on the next 7 days that we are in the middle of the Null p