DanLarsen34

Just now, Bob's Burgers said:

The latest HRRR would be a devastating solution for Jackson, MS

It's worth stressing that the worst threat today may still be to come. 

New Day 1 outlook out. Only slight changes made to the high risk area, but SPC mentions violent, long-track tornadoes. 

SPC just issued a MD mentioning that the threat for strong-violent tornadoes should be increasing in the next 1-3 hours back in W MS, SE AR, and NE LA. 

CC drop now visible on the storm nearing Tuscaloosa. 

The Selma cell that's tracking over rural areas looks like it's been producing a potential debris ball over the past couple of scans.

Things REALLY ramping up. Moundville storm looks extremely dangerous. Same with the storm nearing West Jefferson.

Storm to the SE of Laurel has a very strong couplet. It's taking a very similar path to the significant tornado we saw in that area earlier.

Storm near Brookhaven is looking extremely dangerous.

Storms off to the south and west of the current warned storms in E MS are starting to get that look. 

We've got another PDS watch coming shortly for Eastern AR, Eastern LA, and Western MS.

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Definitely something to watch as HRRR kinda hints at the same idea but is more bullish. I'm pretty curious to learn more about why they are showing what looks like discrete cells but aren't producing these big UH tracks.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t this the case with the model ahead of the 4/12 outbreak last year? It showed widespread OWS convection doing this too.

New outlook from the SPC overnight raised probabilities to 30% in the Day 4 outlook on Wednesday across most of Mississippi and Alabama. Their confidence is quite high at this range regarding the potential for a major severe weather event: 

“

On Wednesday, convection will likely be ongoing across the eastern
   Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana areas, with some severe risk possible
   during the morning hours.  By afternoon, an increase in coverage and
   intensity is expected as closed upper system shifts out of the
   Plains toward the Mississippi Valley.  With a rather
   large/destabilizing warm sector and ample shear across a broad
   region, a rather large 15% area will be maintained, representative
   of an all-hazards severe risk.  Corridors of greater risk --
   including possibly more concentrated tornado potential -- may evolve
   during the afternoon, possibly near the northward-moving warm front.
    While the ECMWF is farther south with this west-to-east front
   (central MS/AL) during the afternoon than the GFS (southern TN),
   will nonetheless introduce a 30% risk area -- encompassing a range
   of possible warm-frontal locations -- given likelihood for
   widespread severe weather that warrants greater probability at this
   time.  ”

Radar showing two strong to potentially violent tornadoes happening simultaneously to the SE of Timbercreek Canyon. 

Think we’re about to see the storm to the south of the main show go nuts. 

Hi all, 

Thought that I would get a thread going for this coming Wednesday.
 

Models are starting to show a potentially volatile scenario across Mississippi and Alabama. The SPC just issued a broad 15% risk area in their day 5 outlook and mentioned that greater probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. James Spann is also bringing attention to this set-up, mentioning that a significant severe weather event with violent tornadoes is possible in his latest write-up about Wednesday. https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=224731

So, this looks interesting for this weekend.

Are the storms to the west elevated? They’re looking REALLY good on velocity and structure on reflectivity. 

This is the most prolific long-tracking supercell I can recall in a LONG time. Closest analog I can think off the top of my head in the past couple of years was the Carbondale EF-4 supercell in 2017. 
 

I missed most of the action earlier because of work, so thanks for these threads everyone. This has been a crazy day. 

They just said “large and extremely dangerous tornado” in the new warning. You think? Where was this warning 5-10 minutes ago? That’s bad.

Definite debris ball on this storm, both on reflectivity and on the CC. 

24 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Pretty black and white to me here.

The Bad (more likely)

Morning MCS limits any potential threat substantially, owing to meh instability... But so could veered low-levels, or both. Probably both.

Likewise, if the morning MCS is limited in scope or southern extent... Then things could get pretty crazy, but again, probably not. Though a strong tornado could occur with some rogue storm, like we saw on Sunday (4/19).

The Good (wish-casting/not as likely)

The low-levels are not as veered as currently modeled (aka, the 00z NAM from last night or the 12z UKMET)... AND the MCS is more lackluster than currently modeled by 12z CAMs... The result is likely tornado galore across several states, yet again...

 

Pretty bearish about Thursday... But even if the MCS diminishes the threat spatially -- as it looks like all of us expect at this point -- it is important to remember that weird, less-than-ideal profiles (especially compared to what you think of as a "classic," plains tornado VWP) can still produce isolated sigtors in Dixie.

Probably going to get quoted a million times for raining on the train... but oh well.

Doesn’t seem like anyone has been bullish on this set-up after the past few model runs. Too many failure modes evident to get very excited about this. 

30 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

Looks like a real hoot

This is fine gif. 

8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Dixie Alley has been Tornado Alley this year

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Dixie Alley is tornado alley at this point.