DanLarsen34

Just now, Indystorm said:

I must admit I am a bit baffled.  We have had many tornadoes, some long tracked.  The current surface low is 1002 mb in southern IL, currently deepening but not as fast as expected.  I always thought a number of svr parameters were tied to the strength of the surface low, yet we have had extreme values with a low pressure not 990 or lower and many svr reports.

The environment that's been in place across Alabama has been high-end for much of the day despite models completely missing with their handling of surface evolution further west. Certainly worth discussing why it seems like models continue to miss on key details after this is over.

Brent, AL is about to get obliterated by a violent tornado. You don't get a more textbook presentation of a violent tornado than this.

Debris fallout evident on the CC.

Beyond the cell that's going nuts now, does anyone see any development happening in the high risk part of NE MS or NW AL? 

New discussion. 

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues.

   SUMMARY...Conditions remain favorable for tornadic supercells
   through this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The air mass remains unstable ahead of a broken line of
   cells from east-central MS into north-central AL, with southerly
   surface winds and warmer temperatures over southern AL aiding
   destabilization. Although these storms are aligned roughly parallel
   to the strong southwesterlies aloft, low-level winds remain
   sufficiently backed to maintain favorable low-level SRH for
   supercells and tornadoes. Effective SRH from objective analysis and
   from area VWPs exceeds 300 m2/s2, with values over 400 m2/s2 for a
   right-moving cell.

   Additional cells have recently intensified over southern MS, and
   these may become better organized as they proceed east into the
   stronger low-level shear environment.

https://twitter.com/tlyzawx/status/1375183075756359687?s=20

The storms further west into MS and W AL are starting to look better.

Just now, UABweather said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pendejoCristian/status/1375176994355343364
 

holy cow!

Good god these two were lucky not to be killed.

Just now, Quincy said:

We’re kind of beyond NAM range, but FWIW, it pops supercells all over the place from northern MS into TN and KY over the next few hours...

SPC discussions suggest that they think this might happen too. 

For those calling a bust. 

There's a circulation developing south of Berry, AL that might need to be warned soon.

Winds are finally starting to shift more south to southeasterly at the surface now according to the mesoanalysis surface map on SPC.

Spann said his house was hit. 

Debris ball has been evident on the reflectivity a LONG time now. Because of the geography of the region, Spann mentioned that it's why we're having trouble seeing a clear CC drop or velocity couplet. 

Tornado live on ABC 33/40.https://abc3340.com/watch