DanLarsen34

Let’s remember, this survey is currently preliminary. That means further inspection and discussion could lead to an EF-5 rating. 
 

That said, if this doesn’t end up there in the coming weeks, I agree with the sentiment that has been expressed in this thread. Basically, there’s almost no areas out there that have structures built up to the standard that would enable an EF-5 rating, and contextual evidence beyond that is just not seen as reliable enough to give a rating beyond that, even if it should be IMHO.

Also worth noting this. 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but are these the photos everyone has been discussing today? 

12 hours ago, Buckeye05 said:

Not to derail the thread, we may go the rest of out lives without ever seeing a tornado as violent as Smithville ever again. That one was in a league of its own, to the point where you can't really compare it with the "average" EF5. That said, I'd say that Hackleburg-Phil Campbell is probably the closest match to this recent one when it comes to comparing previous EF5 events.

Smithville is definitely near or at the top of any strongest tornadoes ever list. It caused some of the worst damage we’ve ever seen, yet it only affected the areas it hit for 1-2 seconds if I remember correctly because of how fast its forward speed was. 
 

Hackleburg-Phil Campbell, though, is right up there too. It’s in almost a league of its own because of the fact that it produced consistent EF-5 damage for dozens of miles along its path. The Mayfield Tornado may be similar given the pictures we’ve seen, but we’ll have to wait for the official surveys to confirm. 

When I mentioned earlier today that the damage NE of Mayfield was most likely to end up at EF-5, this is what part of the reason why. 
 

The damage in Bremen is extremely intense. The forest damage alone is about as bad as any I’ve seen. It’s very reminiscent of some of the most intense damage we saw from some of the worst 4-27-2011 tornadoes. That alone won’t lead to an EF-5 rating, of course, but it’s important contextual evidence. 

If I had to hazard a guess based on the damage pics and videos we’ve seen, I think the best shot we have at an EF-5 rating, as others have posited here, will be northeast of Mayfield. The damage out of the smaller communities like Bremen and Dawson Springs is just insane. It’s comparable at first glance to any of the recent EF-5s we’ve seen IMHO. Only official surveys will be able to definitely tell whether we had an EF-5 or not. 
 

Regardless of where this ends up officially on the rating scale though (it seems likely that it ends up AT LEAST a high-end EF-4 rating), this tornado was absolutely historic in a horrifying way. It likely produced a swath of at least EF-4 damage for dozens of miles at a time, and the path length is likely one of, if not the longest in modern history. 
 

I think this tornado event is also a good reminder that we’ve been extremely lucky since 2011 when it comes to violent tornadoes not hitting populated areas. Let’s hope this isn’t an indication of how the coming months may play out. 

Looks like we found potential EF-5 damage in Mayfield. 

I am seeing usually reserved people comparing this to the Tri-state tornado given how long this thing has been producing. This is absolutely insane. 

Absolutely stunning mesoscale discussion. https://go.usa.gov/xeAVW

When an expert in debris signatures is speechless…

2 hours ago, SmokeEater said:

False alarm, not mod yet, keep 10% but mention possibly needing a tornado driven moderate risk later.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

Not anymore. We’ve got a moderate risk coming shortly.

Just now, OKTWISTER said:

Looks like today has real potential. The new outlook mentions the potential for several long-track, discrete cells that could produce significant tornadoes. Considerable spread remains, though, between models in terms of the exact details regarding convective evolution. Regardless, high-end damaging winds and some strong tornadoes will likely occur today. 

Latest SPC mesoscale discussion mentions the potential for significant tornadoes to continue over the next 1-3 hours. Every one of these storms is rotating, even the non-warned ones