DanLarsen34

There’s two warnings at the moment, but the southern embedded cell near Damascus, GA looks well organized and could pose a significant tornado and wind threat as it approaches Newton in the next 30-45 minutes. 

I know the forum is quiet, but we’ve had a few significant tornadoes already this morning. This was near Blakely not long ago. 

#itshappening? 

Sounds like the Brent-Centerville tornado will end up at EF-3 for a rating. We got so incredibly lucky that this tornado tracked where it did. I have no doubt that if this thing had occurred just a few miles further north, we would have seen EF-4 to EF-5 damage. 
 

As bad as last week was, it could have been even worse. 

The storm approaching Memphis from the south is looking extremely dangerous.

Big yikes. 

This is a legit regional tornado outbreak in progress right now. We’ve already had several confirmed tornadoes from NE Texas to as far north as Illinois. Several discrete cells too in a favorable environment for tornadoes as the low level jet has ramped up. 

24 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I have learned two things from this outbreak.  One is Tony Lyza's comments about the EML being so strong it prevented cells from fully maturing over MS until they got to the AL line and eastward.  The other is that the supposed King (the Euro)  had the surface pressure for this down to 988 and 982 mb which was way too deep for what transpired.

To be frank, it seemed like most of the models missed on this feature, not just the Euro. 

This was from before the final storms further to the south went off, but this suggests to me that the high risk area ended up being too far west (we already knew that), too far north, and not far enough to the east. Can’t say that I blame the SPC at all either. This shows how off the models were at handling this set-up as they quite a ways off to the west and north with this. 

Let’s just hope these people took shelter because this might have been a Greensburg-esque situation. This signature is about as high-end as it gets. 

Huge debris ball. Newnan is getting hit by a violent tornado. 

2 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

That almost seems certain.

I really hope we don't have anyone on the forums who left the thread early thinking it was over and come on here tomorrow talking about how the high risk didn't verify.  Several tornadoes that I think are all going to end up as more significant than last week's storms, and numerous strong to violent long tracked tornadoes.  The event may not have hit the absolute ceiling of potential but it's, IMO, going to wind up as one of the most significant outbreaks of the past 5-7 years.

Today certainly was a high risk day. It just happened much further to the south and East from where models had suggested the greatest threat was, even through this morning. 
 

I would love to hear theories on why modeling has been so off on this the past two high risk set-ups, but we can save that for when this event is done. 

I fear that the debris ball likely came from Franklin getting hit. 

Radar is kind of cluttered, but I think we just got a massive debris ball pop after it tracked very close to Franklin. 

It’s definitely trying to cycle. Rotation isn’t as strong, but we’ll see if it gets it act together one last time. 

Eastern circulation appears to be taking over. 

Just now, BrandonC_TX said:

Speaking of Atlanta, if this storm can hold together that long, it might try to make a run at the southern portion of the Atlanta metro area.  That would be very concerning.

Was just about to mention this. The environment it’s moving into suggests it could maintain its intensity.

Just now, Bob's Burgers said:

This tornado is stronger than the first. much stronger couplet and debris ball

CC is a little cluttered, but there’s an obvious debris ball on reflectivity. 

We might have another significant tornado forming near Goldville. 

The severe warned cell in southern MS that’s about to cross into AL seems like the best storm on the board at the moment that could go on to produce tornadoes.