DanLarsen34

2 hours ago, cheese007 said:

30% contour added for Saturday. Severe season looking to be off to one hall of an early start

Pretty sizable risk area at that.
 

Friday’s outlook has shifted west towards the Dallas/Fort Worth area and I-35. 

As mentioned above, SPC has added a 30% contour for Friday for the Arklatex region. Discussion shows they’re quite bold on the warm sector that will be in place that day. Instability/shear combo will be quite impressive 
 

Saturday stays at 15%, but the risk area has been expanded a bit with SPC hinting at a possible upgrade in the next outlook. 

Thought I’d get a thread going for January 10-11. SPC already has 15% threat areas for next Friday and Saturday, January 10-11, for much of the gulf coast. Threat starts in the Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana area on Friday, then shifts to Mississippi and Alabama on Saturday. Could this be our first severe weather event of the decade?

Will be fascinated to see what the storm surveys find in the coming days. Yesterday performed much more along the lines of what we thought a median outcome for 5-20 would be. This cell, in particular, may have had an extremely long-tracking tornado. 

Storm to the north of the Columbia cell heading towards Mount Olive has a hell of a velocity signature, and has had one for several scans. Radar reflectivity has that classic look too. Very good chance there’s a strong tornado in progress with that cell.

Today has been really active. We’ve had several discrete/semi-discrete cells producing tornadoes for several hours now.  One of the most active days of the year. 

CC drop isn’t as pronounced as before, but it’s still there on the loop. Tornado might not have been as intense when it tracked into the city, but it was definitely still there.

BWER and intense couplet developing on the more discrete cell to the SE of the Alexandria storm. 

I would call this a tornado emergency for Alexandria, Pineville, and Ball. Radar signature very clearly indicates an intense tornado in progress (EF3+). 

Here’s the storm surveys. Looks like the structural damage I observed near Wrightstown was the result of a tornado. https://www.weather.gov/grb/072019_severe_event

Drove through Appleton today on our way back from Lambeau Field. There is an immense amount of damage up there.

Branches down on every street, including big trees that split or were uprooted. Several roads were completely blocked off because of downed trees. Also observed significant structural damage in some areas just north of Appleton that might have been the result of a possible tornado. Structure damage looked worse than straight line wind damage IMO. 

That’s the highest wind speed I’ve ever seen listed for an SPC watch. Saw on twitter the only other instance we could find was May 31, 1998.

First tornado warning just went up. 

I’m a little surprised that the watch values were 50-50 given that there’s a moderate risk over that area for tornadoes. Watch probabilities don’t really mesh with the SPC outlook IMO (not that it matters that much).

Parameters like STP aren’t as valuable this time of the year, but these are still eye-popping. 14 STP on the effective layer map on the SPC Mesoanalysis. Over 20 EHI. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen EHI numbers this high before across a severe risk area.

This is an all-timer sounding. This is the Aberdeen sounding from a little while ago. 

17 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

Have they completed the storm surveys yet for these tornadoes from yesterday?

CC maxed out at 24,000 feet with this and there was a debris fallout evident on radar as well. That’s highly suggestive of an high-end EF3 to EF4 tornado.

Mentioned this in the other forum, but the Dayton tornado was just upgraded to an EF4. That means we’ve had two violent tornadoes during this prolonged outbreak sequence. Matches with the radar data we saw in real time.

NWS just upgraded the Dayton tornado to an EF4. We’re now up to two violent tornadoes during this outbreak sequence.

Jesus Christ. There’s still reports coming in of debris falling out of the sky.